Free College Football Pick - Stanford at Hawaii

The Stanford Cardinal has a program that has gone through the wringer lately. They are in the middle of a transition, as the head coach was let go a little late in the day to take full advantage of recruiting season.

But they have a former NFL head coach at the helm as they begin another whirlwind campaign in the Atlantic Coast Conference. On Saturday night they'll pay a visit to the Hawaii Warriors in a game that kicks off 1t 7:30 PM ET at the Clarence TC Ching Athletic Complex in Honolulu.

Hawaii brings back 15 starters from a team that was 5-7 last year and lost three games by three points or less. But note that two of the five wins came against FCS entries Delaware State and Northern Iowa.

This trip to the middle of the Pacific Ocean is just a precursor of things to come for the Cardinal, as Stanford has over 26,000 miles to travel as part of its ridiculous schedule in the ACC.

The home field has not necessarily been a huge advantage for the Hawaii program, as they've gone 9-21-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last ten seasons.

NCAA football betting odds as posted at BetOnline:

Hawaii is laying some points in this opener, although it's not a lot.

Hawaii Warriors -2.5 (+100)
Stanford Cardinal +2.5 (-120)

Over 50 Points -120
Under 50 Points +100

What is the coaching situation at Stanford?

The Cardinal got caught up in a scandal in the off-season, as Troy Taylor, who had been the coach, was the subject of more than one investigation for bullying players. Stanford had hired Andrew Luck, a legendary quarterback there, as the General Manager of the football program, and he felt it appropriate to fire Taylor.

In his place, Luck turned to someone he was familiar with, and who he had indeed played for in his final NFL season. Frank Reich, who went to four Super Bowls as a backup quarterback with the Buffalo Bills, was the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles' first Super Bowl champ, and then had head coaching stints with the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts. This is his first experience coaching at the college level, and with the "interim" label attached, he's there for only a year.

Reich came onto the scene in March, which is a tough time because it doesn't give a program all the time in the world to recruit high school players or navigate the transfer portal. So this is what Stanford has to deal with.


What transpired with Stanford's quarterback competition?

Perhaps it's because he is only in Palo Alto temporarily, and his best prospect still has plenty of eligibility time, but Reich made the decision not to go with five-star recruit Elijah Brown, but instead sixth-year collegian Ben Gulbranson at quarterback. Gulbranson has experience at Oregon State, and in fact went 7-1 as a starter in 2022. He threw for 1455 yards and nine touchdowns.

Brown came to Stanford amidst much pomp and circumstance, as he had compiled a record of 42-2 as a starter at Mater Dei in California. He was a five-star recruit, but now this will be two straight seasons where he may not see the field all that much. For a program that has gone 3-9 for four consecutive seasons, that's unusual. And the question has to be asked as to whether Reich is doing what puts his team in the best position to win.

A quick look at Stanford's personnel

The personnel on hand for Stanford is not overly impressive. This is not a team that is likely to threaten anyone with its ground attack. No Stanford running back has gained more than 500 yards in any of the last four seasons. And in none of those seasons has the team averaged more than 3.6 yards a carry.

Apparently they'll be looking to travel by air, and Gulbranson's main target could be wideout CJ Williams, who has previously been at Wisconsin and USC. But you'll seeing a lot from tight end Sam Roush (40 receptions last year) as well. And four of the five starting offensive linemen have returned, which is a very good sign.

The secondary, which returns everybody, will be enhanced if safety Jay Green, who was hampered by injuries last year but played in 2023 with national runner-up Washington, can be healthy all year long.

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Hawaii's offense ready to go full throttle

Stanford may need all the defensive backs they can get to deal with Hawaii's Run 'n Shoot offense. And nobody knows it better than head coach Timmy Chang, who in his playing days directed it under June Jones and set an NCAA career record for passing yardage.

He's got a pretty interesting young man at the controls of this scheme. Micah Alejado is a pint-sized guy - just 5'10" and 170 pounds - but fortunately bulk is not required to operate the Run 'n Shoot. Alejado was a two-time Gatorade Player of the Year in Nevada, but he really didn't get to play until the end of the '24 season, and he engineered a 38-30 win over New Mexico with a superhuman effort - 469 yards and five touchdowns, without an interception.

It's no wonder why fans of the 'Bows are so enthusiastic about having Alejado on hand for the whole season.

Hawaii is going to send out a bunch of receivers on every play, and they are bringing back the two most productive guys from last season in Nick Cenacle and Pofele Ashlock. And they add to that with Jackson Harris, a sophomore with size and speed who played for Stanford last year.

No, Hawaii does not run the ball particularly well (just 3.4 ypc last year), but this is the type of offense in which you simply don't run have to run it very much (just 39.5% of the time in 2024).

Hawaii may surprise us with some defense

What they haven't seen all that much of in Honolulu is defense. But that may not be a big liability this season. This unit is stocking up on experienced players.

Hawaii returns nine players who started on defense last year, but with the transfer additions, that doesn't mean they're all going to start this year. They'll have a number of seniors playing in the two-deep on the defensive line, so it's a good bet that they'll improve upon the 4.7 yards per carry they allowed in 2024.

The linebackers are all returning too, and the best guy in that group is junior Jamih Otis, who has a shot to be named all-Mountain West. There is experience in the secondary as well, and they had better be able to adapt to defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman's man-to-man coverage schemes.

Stanford at Hawaii - who gets the cover?

Reich is in a tough spot, not having had a whole lot of time to put things together. Stanford, which is a hard place to recruit from to begin with, lost more players in the portal than they acquired.

And his selection of Gulbranson gives him the more experienced but less dynamic quarterback in this matchup.

We like the idea of a more well-oiled offense here, and there is more continuity on the Warriors' side. That, and the expectation that its defense will be better, gives us a lean toward Hawaii in this lid-lifter.

THE PLAY: HAWAII -2.5 (+100)


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