Betting tips for Game 4 of NBA Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics

A question for all of you BetOnline customers: when you think of the Miami Heat, do you wonder how they have gotten this far? Or do you feel as if they are just where they should be, while other people just haven't noticed?

That's an interesting question to ponder. Do that while you think about the odds for Game 4 of the series between the Heat and Boston Celtics, which takes place at 8:30 PM ET on Wednesday night:

Boston Celtics -3 (-120)
Miami Heat +3 (+100)

Over 211.5 points -115
Under 211.5 points -105

In the off-season, the Heat reached out an acquired a player who might conceivably be considered a "superstar" in Jimmy Butler, but at heart, this is an ensemble. And Erik Spoelstra has obviously done a great job with them. When you have two players in your starting lineup all season long (Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson) who weren't even drafted, and you are a conference title contender, you have accomplished something that is quite unusual in today's NBA.

Spoelstra tweaks the lineup

What's a little ironic, however, is that taking one of those undrafted players out of the starting lineup and inserting an old pro has been a major catalyst in propelling a team that was not all that good away from their home floor (just 14-19) into a spot in the league's "final four" in the bubble.

Goran Dragic had almost been traded to the Dallas Mavericks. That fell through. And Spoelstra came to Dragic with the idea of coming off the bench. That was strange for someone who had been an All-Star just a couple of seasons before. But he accepted it and even got comfortable with it. So when Spoelstra proposed that he come back as a starter to replace Nunn, who'd gotten to the bubble late, he had second thoughts.

But he has been, in a sense, a missing ingredient, along with another lineup adjustment Spoelstra made that put Jae Crowder in and took Meyers Leonard out, with made the team a bit smaller and quicker on defense.

Dragic averaged 21.1 points a game over the first two playoff series, across which the Heat lost just one game. And he exploded for 54 points in the first two games against the Boston Celtics, both Miami wins.

Get Smart

It was clear to BetOnline patrons by this time that as far as the team's offense was concerned, he was the cornerstone. And in Game 3 of the series, Celtics coach Brad Stevens decided that he needed to take that away, to the greatest extent possible.

Well, he had just the guy to do it. Marcus Smart has been stepping up his offensive game in the playoffs, but he's also a first-team All-Defensive team member, and for good reason.

Smart was assigned to pressure Dragic as much as possible, and he almost stopped him dead in his tracks. In 32 possessions in this series where Smart has shadowed him, Dragic has hit just one field goal. When that happens, you have to look for a different offensive approach. And if try to "force it," well, let's put it this way - Dragic had a plus-minus figure of minus-29 on Saturday.

And that isn't necessarily going to be the easiest thing. If you look at the Heat, Dragic is really the point guard-type out there. It's not Nunn, or Robinson, or Tyler Herro, or Butler. Dragic is the best guy for them to run things through. So it's reasonable to say the Celtics could be finding something that Miami may not be able to compensate for.

And that's not all. Miami is having trouble with........

They were outscored 60-36 in the paint in Game 3, and I did not anticipate that they would be outplayed on the inside like this. And this inside-the-arc stuff was by design on the part of the Celtics; they shot almost 60% from two-point range in Game 3 on the way to 52.4% overall. It seems that Heat players are getting beat off the dribble, and expecting Bam Adebayo to save them in the lane. And maybe that's what they gave up when they took Leonard out - a little more rim protection.

And any team that can trot out four players averaging 20+points (in this series) is going to be hard to defend. Now Gordon Hayward is being worked back into the situation, so that could bring even more balance. When Stevens put Hayward on the floor with Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, they were tough to deal with. Expect more of that.

The conclusion?

Boston has "won" eight of the twelve quarters that have been played, and led for 101 of the 144 minutes. The Heat has fashioned comebacks by 14 and 17 points in the first two games, but there are only so many times you can really do that. I think we have a situation where we can lay the points.

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