NBA Draft Props -- Odds shift quicky as rumors spread, info "confirmed"

  • In Charles Jay
  • Thu, Jun 23rd, 2022 3:00:31 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA

As the NBA Draft approaches, it's not all about the first pick, but who might go where after that.

I don't generally like writing these pre-draft pieces, because what happens is that the odds change around so quickly as we get close to the first selection.

And the radical shift in numbers indeed concerns that selection.

It seems just a couple of days ago, Jabari Smith Jr., the talented 6-10 freshman, was the favorite, but only at -225 odds at BetOnline.

Now, last we looked, he is priced at -900 to go first, in this case to the Orlando Magic, who can use all the talent they can get.

Chet Holmgren, who not that long ago was considered to be the top prospect available, is now +2000 to go #1, with Paolo Banchero of Duke, yet another freshman, at +270.

Holmgren is -900 to be taken with the second pick, while Banchero is -650 to go third. I would assume this means that Oklahoma City, with the second pick, likes Holmgren a lot more than it does Banchero.

Doesn't it?

Take note that these odds don't change because the teams themselves make statements about who they will select. They change, generally, because of what the "draft experts" hear, from whatever source they claim to have, and that prompts changes in the many mock drafts that garner the most respect.

And none of this means they're wrong. The possibility of trades could make any and all props moot, because it will, in effect, change the draft order and make mock draft projections kind of moot.

And as always, keep in mind that we are talking about something as speculative as how a bunch of 19-year-olds, some of whom have played very few games outside of high school, are going to fare against the greatest players in the world.

The guy who would be an alternate selection for someone in the top three, if not one of the guys we mentioned, is 6-4 guard Jaden Ivey of Purdue, who has - surprise - actually played two years of college basketball.

These drafts have become all about "upside," and a number of people seem to believe that Holmgren, because he is seven-feet tall and can run the floor and shoot from the outside, in addition to swatting away shots, might be the guy who can be the best of the lot; that is, if he can perhaps put some weight on his 195-pound frame. Yes, you got that right. He's 195 pounds. That makes him a project, to a considerable extent.

In this day and age, as we see the move in the direction of "positionless" basketball, scouts are looking for big men who can stretch a defense out offensively with outside shooting, and most certainly Smith and Holmgren fit the bill.

To that end, the most intriguing prop might involve a big man who doesn't shoot much from the outside at all. Jalen Duren had reclassified himself to attend Memphis under Penny Hardaway, and came in as a great 1-2 freshman punch with Emoni Bates, although he wasa bit les highly-touted than Bates.

He has good size (6-10, 250) and ranked in the top 30 in blocked-shot percentage this past season. he is very aggressive on the boards, and can play as a classic pivot man.

Duren tried only one three-pointer all season. So he's really not all that desirable in today's NBA.

He should be a lottery pick, but not a high one. This is the prop involving his selection:

Over 10.5 position -150
Under 10.5 position +110

I hope somebody out there- perhaps the Knicks, with the eleventh pick - appreciates the value of a guy who does his work in the paint. Of course, that makes Duren a borderline pick in this prop.

We'll talk to you after the draft, when we already knew what happened.

Place your wagers on the NBA Draft at BetOnline, where they offer you a heck of a lot of props to get you ready for the festivities....... And remember that they make it easier than anyone else when it comes to accessing deposit options, as they accept practically every cryptocurrency that exists.

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