NBA Betting: Is Jerami Grant really the NBA’s Most Improved Player?



An in-depth look at the candidates for the Most Improved Player in the NBA.

NBA futures betting tips for Most Improved Player

The narrative and the oddsmakers say the Detroit Pistons' Jerami Grant is the clear favorite to win the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award, but has he really made the huge leap that most people believe he has?

On the surface, it appears he has. Grant has almost doubled his scoring average. His rebounding numbers are up seventy percent and he's more than doubled his assist rate. But when you dive deeper into the numbers, the answer to the question is no. Let's look inside the numbers.

JERAMI GRANT 2019-20 2020-21
USG% 18.0 26.9
MPG 26.6 36.2
FGA  8.9 17.8
PPG 12.0 23.2
eFG% .555 .503
FT% .750 .889
RPG  2.7  4.6
APG  1.2  2.9
WS/48 .111 .113
ORTG 117 113
DRTG 112 113
USG - Usage Percentage, MPG - Minutes Per Game, FGA - Filed Goal Attempts, PPG - Points Per Game, eFG - Effective Field Goal,  FT - Free Throw, RPG - Rebounds Per Game, APG - Assists Per Game, WS/48 - Win Shares per 48 mins, ORTG - Offensive Rating, DRTG - Defensive Rating

Grant's huge increase in his scoring average is due in large part to his usage rate going up by fifty percent from last season and at the same time doubling his field goal attempts. And while his usage has increased dramatically, his efficiency rate in a number of categories has actually decreased.

NBA MIP bettingGrant's Effective Field Goal Percentage is down over five percent. His Win Shares per 48 minutes is barely up and his offensive rating has fallen off by four points. His defensive rating is just one point below last year's number, but it happens to be the worst of his career.

Grant has been in the conversation for the Most Improved Player Award from early in the season, but wasn't considered the favorite until the Houston Rockets' Christian Wood went down with a severe ankle sprain on Feb. 4 and has been sidelined ever since. Wood, who hopes to return after the All Star break, has missed thirteen games, which could hurt his candidacy.

CHRISTIAN WOOD 2019-20 2020-21
USG% 23.0 26.2
MPG 21.4 31.2
FGA 8.2 15.2
PPG 13.1 22.0
eFG% .620 .618
FT% .744 .688
RPG 6.3 10.2
APG 1.0 1.3
WS/48 .183 .169
ORTG 123 115
DRTG 110 106

Like Grant, Wood has benefited from an expanded role, but has shown more improvement than the Piston's forward.

But surprisingly, it hasn't been on the offensive end. Grant has been a better rebounder this season and his defensive rating has improved by four points.

However, he's taken a step back in some areas on the other end of the court or made very little improvement.

Wood’s offensive rating is down eight points. His Effective Field Goal Percentage is basically the same and his free throw shooting has dropped almost five percent.

As far as his overall impact, Wood’s Win Shares per 48 minutes is down slightly.

Had Wood not gotten injured and continued to put up similar numbers, it's very likely he would've been the prohibitive favorite. But like Grant, his so-called improvement doesn't stack up with my top two candidates.

Two players to bet on

At the top of the list is the New York Knicks' Julius Randle, whose play has spearheaded the team's surprising success this season.

JULIUS RANDALL 2019-20 2020-21
USG% 27.6 27.7
MPG 32.5 36.7
FGA 15.7 17.2
PPG 19.5 23.2
eFG% .492 .537
FT% .733 .805
RPG  9.7 11.1
APG  3.1  5.5
WS/48 .062 .159
ORTG 104 115
DRTG 112 107

Randall has significantly improved his game on BOTH ends of the floor, something which hasn't really been highlighted or publicized. One of the most surprising stats of the season is Randle ranks third in the NBA in defensive win shares, behind only Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Rudy Gobert and MVP candidate LeBron James.

Julian Randle most improved  player oddsOn the offensive end, Randle has made a sizable jump in several areas and his play has led to success in the standings for the Knicks. Most notably, his Win Shares per 48 minutes has increased by over 150 percent from last season.

Unlike Grant and Wood, whose usage rate is much higher this season, Randle's is basically the same.

Randle is also a first-time All-Star, as is the case with my second leading candidate, Zach LaVine.

ZACH LaVINE 2019-20 2020-21
USG% 31.7 31.1
MPG 24.8 35.6
FGA 20.0 19.6
PPG 25.5 28.7
eFG% .526 .615
FT% .802 .857
RPG  4.8  5.2
APG  4.2  5.1
WS/48 .092 .157
ORTG 106 117
DRTG 110 113

LaVine was a terrific offensive player last season, but he's taken it to another stratosphere this year. His Effective Field Goal Percentage is up by nearly nine percent, and his mark of .615 is better than the likes of Stephen Curry (.595) and Damian Lillard (.548). And his offensive rating is up a whopping eleven points.

Zach Randle MIP betting oddsLaVine, like Randle, has a similar usage rate to last season, and has also significantly increased his Win Shares per 48 minutes.

Grant simply hasn't improved at the rate Randle and LaVine have and he hasn't made his teammates better like the pair of first-time All Stars.

Sportsbooks believe Grant has a big leg up on his competition, with BetMGM setting the line at -200. That line translates to a 66.67% probability that the Pistons forward will take home the award.

Final Word

As recently as mid-February Randle was +6500 at BetOnline.ag. The line currently sits at +450 there and +600 at BetMGM. That says the oddsmakers still feel Randle is a long shot, but I say otherwise, and . .  there is value in that line. 

But there’s even more value in LaVine, who is +3300 at DraftKIngs and +3000 at FanDuel.


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