Mountain West Preview and Predictions

The Mountain West football 2025 media days took place last month at top sportsbook and resort Circa in downtown Las Vegas. Boise State is the consensus favorite to win the conference again after winning the Mountain West Championship last season over UNLV for the second straight year. 

The Broncos went on to make the new 12 team College Football Playoff and got a bye before losing to Penn State in the quarterfinals. Boise State is the top-ranked Group of Five team again this season and opens the season ranked No. 25 in the AP Poll, which was released Aug. 11.  

This is also the last year of the Mountain West as we have known it. Five teams are leaving for the 2026 season to join the new Pac 12 - Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State and Utah State. Of course there are lawsuits with major money at stake. 

There is one Most Improved Team On Phil Steele's top 12 (No. 9 Air Force), but no Surprise Teams in the Mountain West. But Boise State is ranked the top Group of Five team and San Jose State No. 5. 

Check out the SEC football preview along with Big Ten football and ACC football previews plus the Big 12 football coverage I provide here at Off Shore Gaming Association with information you can bet on. 

Mountain West  teams, Odds, Season Wins And Position/Unit Rankings 

Here are the Mountain West teams with regular season O/U wins, odds to win the conference and national championship plus position and unit rankings for each team in the Mountain West conference. Check back for more added stats and notes. 

College football odds from BetOnline, BetUS and Bookmaker, plus other leading online sportsbooks and reduced juice books like rebranded BetAnyThing (formerly BetAnySports) and Heritage refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Boise State 

Head coach: Spencer Danielson (3rd year)
Season Wins: O/U 9/5 (over -241)  
Last 2 years: 12-2, 8-6 
National Title: +25000 (BetUS)
Mountain West Title: -160 (BetOnline)
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (1), RB (3), REC (1), OL (1), DL (1), LB (1), DB (1), ST (6), Coach (2) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 3 and 11. The most dominant pick to win another conference title with Boise State topping the position and unit rankings across the board at key positions after making the new 12-team College Football Playoff last season. The Broncos have reached the MWC championship game in 7 of the last 8 years, and open 2025 ranked No. 25 in the Associated Press (AP) media poll. Even losing top NFL draft pick RB Ashton Jeanty, Boise State has top talent returning on both sides of the ball including top QB Maddux Madsen while adding senior RB Malik Sherrod, who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards in 2023 for Fresno State. A pair of pre-season 1st team defensive linemen return on the league's top defense. The Week 6 game at Notre Dame on Oct. 4 will be a good gauge of Boise State, who is the top-ranked Group of Five team and most capable of returning to the College Football Playoff. 

San Jose State 

Head coach: Ken Niumatalolo (2nd year)
Season Wins: O/U 7.5 (under -136, BookMaker)  
Last 2 years: 7-6, 7-6 
National Title: +100000
Mountain West Title: +700 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (2), RB (7), REC (3), OL (5), DL (3), LB (4), DB (3), ST (8), Coach (2) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 3 and 9. The Spartans play at Texas in Week 2, but avoid both Boise State and UNLV this season and have the easiest schedule after facing the top-4 teams in the MWC last season and making a bowl under coach Niumatalolo, who took over following 20 years at Navy. Picked to finish near the bottom of the MWC last season, anything less than a winning season would be a big disappointment for SJST with senior QB Walker Eget the top-ranked passer in the MWC from Week 6 forward last season. But a group of new receivers will need to step up in the Spread-and-Shread offense and an improved defense (27.5 PPG, 381 YPG) is expected with a pair of Big Ten DB's transfering in to join three top tacklers, including top senior LB Jordan Pollard plus top NT senior Gafa Faga.  

UNLV 

Head coach: Dan Mullen (1st year)
Season Wins: O/U 8.5 (under -128)  
Last 2 years: 11-3, 9-5 
National Title: +3000
Mountain West Title: +700 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (4), RB (2), REC (3), OL (8), DL (7), LB (4), DB (3), ST (3), Coach (5)

Notes: Bye Weeks 5 and 9. The Rebels turn to former SEC coach Dan Mullen following two wildly successful seasons under Barry Odom (Purdue). UNLV is actually picked to finish 2nd in the MWC media poll and received 4 first place votes to Boise State's 35. The Rebels bring in former Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea and many transfers to offset the fewest returning starters in the conference. A Week 2 home game vs. UCLA could propel the Rebels to a 4-0 start before a bye and conference opener at Wyoming. The Oct. 18 game at Boise State is the biggest and UNLV is a bigger team overall in strength and conditioning according to reports but without a first-team MWC preseason player on offense, defense or special teams. 

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Air Force 

Head coach: Troy Calhoun (19th year)
Season Wins: O/U 5.5 (over -220)  
Last 2 years: 5-7, 9-4 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +1600 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (10), RB (1), REC (12), OL (2), DL (4), LB (4), DB (10), ST (4), Coach (1) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 2 and 9. Air Force started last season 1-7 averaging less than 14 points per game. Of course they become undervalued in the betting market and finished with four straight wins and 5-0 ATS their final five games while averaging 302 rushing yards (229 season) and 29 PPG. Air Force was just one season removed from starting 8-0 on their way to a 9-4 season. The Fly Boys should bounce back as a top-10 most improved team, according to Steele with top coach Troy Calhoun having a senior-laden team with 14 returning starters, but a new inexperienced quarterback in junior Josh Johnson. Still, the top-6 tacklers are gone from a defense that had it's worst year since 2018. 

Colorado State 

Head coach: Jay Norvell (4th year)
Season Wins: O/U 6.5 (under -158)  
Last 2 years: 8-5, 5-7 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +1200 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (4), RB (5), REC (3), OL (4), DL (6), LB (7), DB (7), ST (4), Coach (2) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 3 and 10. The Rams went 6-1 in conference play last season but lost the tie-breaker to UNLV to play in the Mountain West Championship game. CSU has a third-year starting QB in Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and only two returning offensive linemen, but both among the better OG and OT in the conference. The Nov. schedule is tougher with home games vs. UNLV and Air Force to conclude the season and on the road at Boise State. The Rams have just two returning starters on defense, and 

Hawaii 

Head coach: Timmy Chang (4th year)
Season Wins: O/U 5.5 (over -160)  
Last 2 years: 5-7, 5-8 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +1600
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (3), RB (12), REC (1), OL (8), DL (3), LB (1), DB (6), ST (10), Coach (6) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 6 and 9. This is coach Timmy Chang's best team with 18 returning starters, more continuity and chance to make a bowl game. The Rainbow Warriors offense has struggled in three seasons under Chang with last year's 22.3 points per game the high point. That will improve this season, and Hawaii opens Week 0 at home as a slight favorite over Stanford. Then it's to Tucson in Week 1 to play Arizona, and Hawaii is just 2-15 on the road under Chang. The defense has improved each year under Chang and allowed 26 points per game and 377 yards per game last season and nine starters return on defense. A tougher road schedule includes Air Force, Colorado State, San Jose State and UNLV, so Hawaii could use a few road wins to break through to a bowl.    

Fresno State 

Head coach: Matt Entz (1st year)
Season Wins: O/U 6.5 (over -128)  
Last 2 years: 6-7, 9-4 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +1000
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (7), RB (5), REC (9), OL (8), DL (5), LB (7), DB (1), ST (2), Coach (9) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 5 and 8. Fresno State has a new coach in former North Dakota State HC Matt Entz, who will turn to a power running game and rely on a solid defense with strength in the defensive backfield. Senior QB EJ Warner transfers in from Rice, and he's the son of NFL Hall of Famer Kurt Warner looking to return the Bulldogs scoring to at least 30 points per game after a 7-year low 26 PPG last season. Fresno State avoids UNLV and Air Force, but plays their toughest games on the road including in Nov. at Boise State and San Jose State. The Bulldogs also open the season at Kansas in Week 0 on Aug. 23 as a 12-point underdog.  

San Diego State 

Head coach: Sean Lewis (2nd year)
Season Wins: O/U 4.5 (over -167)  
Last 2 years: 3-9, 4-8 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +2800 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (4), RB (8), REC (7), OL (5), DL (7), LB (1), DB (3), ST (1), Coach (6) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 3 and 8. San Diego State has really fallen off the past few years and miss the Rocky Long coached toughness and discipline. The Aztecs allowed less than 21 points per game in 5-straight seasons, but the last two allowed 26.8 and last year 29.6 in coach Sean Lewis' first season. That side of the ball will be improved with many starters back and in the system with added strength in the secondary. The offensive line has 4 returning starters, but RBs and WRs are all new for Michigan sophomore transfer QB Jayden Denegal. A much more managable schedule this season should see a sharp rise in wins for San Diego State. 

Wyoming 

Head coach: Jay Sawvel (2nd year)
Season Wins: O/U 5.5 (under -170)  
Last 2 years: 3-9, 9-4 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +2800 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (11), RB (10), REC (6), OL (3), DL (9), LB (7), DB (10), ST (10), Coach (9) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 5 and 11.Wyoming also dropped off sharply last season going from 9 wins to 3 with three early-season one-sided losses. The strength of the Cowboys is along the offensive line and sophomore QB Kaden Anderson is underrated and capable of much improvement after taking over as starter late last season and leading the Cowboys to a high-scoring victory at New Mexico in his debut with a season-high 604 yards offense. But Wyoming averaged just 19.3 points per game on offense and allowed 28.3 - both worst scoring numbers in the last seven years of the program. After tackling Utah and at Colorado in Boulder (where I'll watch live) in Sept., the Pokes should continue improvement with managable road games and home contests vs. UNLV, San Jose State and the boarder battle vs. Colorado State while avoiding Boise State. A better second-season is expected after a very tough year 1 for coach Jay Sawvel.    

Nevada 

Head coach: Jeff Choate (2nd year)
Season Wins: O/U 3.5 (over -136)  
Last 2 years: 3-10, 2-10 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +8000 
Mountain Wes Unit rankings: QB (7), RB (8), REC (7), OL (8), DL (12), LB (7), DB (9), ST (6), Coach (8) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 5 and 10. Former Texas defensive coordinator Jeff Choate did very well in his first season in Reno despite just 3 wins. The WolfPack were much more competitive and nearly pulled off a major upset in Week 1 in a 29-24 loss to SMU as a 27-point 'Dog. The next week they upset Troy, and overall suffered 3 conference losses by 4 points or less while also hanging within 1-score of Boise State as a 23-point underdog. They were out-gained by just -20 yards per game in MWC play, but this season just 7 starters return. Perhaps that's a good thing for a rebuilding program, similar to Colorado in the Big 12. The wins will be tough to come by again this season starting on the road at Penn State as a 45-point underdog. Starting in late Oct., the WolfPack will play the three top-ranked MWC teams at home in Boise State, UNLV and San Jose State. The position groups all rate in the bottom half of the conference, so the rebuilding continues in Reno.  

Utah State 

Head coach: Bronco Mendenhall (1st year)
Season Wins: O/U 4.5 (under -185)  
Last 2 years: 4-8, 6-7 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +5000 
Mountain Wes Unit rankings: QB (7), RB (10), REC (10), OL (8), DL (9), LB (7), DB (8), ST (8), Coach (9) 

Notes: Bye Weeks 6 and 10. Former BYU and Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall takes over Utah State after coaching New Mexico last season for 1 year. The Aggies struggled last season with 5-double-digit one-sided losses to open last season vs. FBS opponents. The position groups all rank poorly as well in the MWC, and there is limited experienced players in the portal coming into Logan to get them bowl eligible. No returners on the offensive line and all the top RB's and WR's are gone, so there are many questions ahead of Mountain West play after they get blasted at Texas A&M in Week 2. 

New Mexico 

Head coach: Jason Eck (1st year)
Season Wins: O/U (under -120)  
Last 2 years: 5-7, 4-8 
National Title: +100000 
Mountain West Title: +15000 
Mountain West Unit rankings: QB (12), RB (4), REC (10), OL (5), DL (11), LB (7), DB (12), ST (10), Coach (9)

Notes: Bye Weeks 4 and 11. New Mexico is picked in the bottom of the MWC with a gutted roster from last season. But the Lobos have some top-half position unit rankings including on the offensive line and running back for Idaho transfer QB Jack Layne, who will play under his offensive coordinator a first-year head coach Jason Eck who both come from Idaho. All the defensive linemen are gone, and the Lobos allowed 38 points per game last season. Road games at Michigan to open the season and UCLA, plus Boise State, San Jose State, UNLV and Air Force in conference play makes it unlikely New Mexico can find winning results for their new coach. New Mexico has won 5 or fewer games in 15 of the last 17 seasons, and the Lobos forcast is less than 5 wins.    

Key Mountain West Contests And Game Of The Year Odds

Key games between Mountain West teams and preseason Game of the Year college football odds from BetOnline to compare to betting lines and adjustments each week when the matchups take place. Betting favorites in (  ). 

Week 0 - Aug. 23
Fresno State at Kansas (-13.5), 50.5
Stanford at Hawaii (-2), 52 

Week 1 - Aug. 28-30
Hawaii at Arizona (-13.5), 55.5 
Nevada at Penn State (-45.5), 58
Colorado State at Washington (-20), 52.5
New Mexico at Michigan (-36.5), 50
UTEP at Utah State (-4), 61
Georgia State at Fresno State (-1.5), 53.5 

Week 2 - Sept. 6
San Jose State at Texas
Fresno State at Oregon State
Utah State at Texas A&M
San Diego State at Washington State 

Week 3 - Sept. 12-13
Utah at Wyoming
New Mexico at UCLA 

Week 4 - Sept. 20
Wyoming at Colorado
Boise State at Air Force 

Week 5 - Sept. 27
San Jose State at Stanford
Utah State at Vanderbilt 

Week 6 - Oct. 4
Boise State at Notre Dame
Air Force at Navy

Week 7 - Oct. 11
Air Force at UNLV

Week 8 - Oct. 18
UNLV at Boise State

Week 9 - Oct. 25
Colorado State at Wyoming
San Diego State at Fresno State 

Week 10 - Nov. 1
Army at Air Force
Hawaii at San Jose State 

Week 11 - Nov. 8
UNLV at Colorado State 

Week 12 - Nov. 15
Boise State at San Diego State 

Week 13 - Nov. 22
Colorado State at Boise State
Hawaii at UNLV
San Jose State at San Diego State 

Week 14 - Nov. 28-29 
Boise State at Utah State
UNLV at Nevada
Air Force at Colorado State
Fresno State at San Jose State

Check back for more updates and team notes, stats and follow the Mountain West Conference football schedule, weekly odds, picks and information you can bet on.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.