Monday Night Football Betting – Browns at Broncos: Denver looks to take another step toward postseason

Preview and picks for the MNF matchup between the Browns and Broncos

I was wondering whether, at the outset of the season, it was expected that a game between the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos would have a whole different dynamic at this point in the campaign than what we’re seeing now.

After all, the Browns, who made the playoffs last season on the heroics of Joe Flacco, were to welcome back QB Deshaun Watson to the lineup, while the Broncos were going to go through some growing pains with rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

But the team driving toward the playoffs is not the Browns, but the Broncos. And Denver is one of the better stories in the NFL, with Sean Payton a Coach of the Year candidate.

Now Denver tries to put itself into a better playoff position when it takes on Cleveland, which will be playing early golf this winter. It takes place at Empower Field at Mile High.

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CLEVELAND BROWNS at DENVER BRONCOS, 8:15 PM ET Monday

Monday Night Football Odds from BetOnline:

Broncos -5.5 (-105) / Total 41.5 (Over 41.5 -115, Under -105)

The Broncos are tenth in the NFL in overall DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average - a key metric), while Cleveland is 31st out of 32 teams.

That doesn’t really tell the whole story, we have to admit, but the story is still much better for Denver at this point in time.

The Browns have had some hard injury luck, but one has to concede that Jameis Winston’s ascension to the starting quarterback role in the wake of Deshaun Watson’s injury was probably a blessing in disguise. We just wonder why Winston had sat their as the #3 man on the depth chart while Dorian Thomson-Robinson was ahead of him. What was going through coach Kevin Stefanski’s head on that?

If you listen to Winston, the Heisman Trophy winner brings some enthusiasm to the table. And he’s averaged 7.4 yards per attempt, which means he’s pushed the ball down the field a lot better than Watson did. So that’s a good thing,

Most people realized that Nick Chubb was going to be a wild card here. If able to bounce back all the way from the knee injury that ended his 2023 campaign, he could have been the guy to carry this team. But he’s averaged only three yards an attempt, which confirms that this is a tougher recovery than usual. 

Cleveland has been good enough to rise up and beat the likes of AFC North front-runners Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But those kinds of performances have been the exception rather than the rule. This team is dysfunctional; the Browns have converted only 27% on third down, and that’s been only 25% over the last three games, even with Winston in the saddle.

Remember Denver’s defensive woes early last season? They gave up 70 points and over 700 yards to the Dolphins, and Sean Payton was starting to become the butt of jokes. 

That didn’t last long; the Broncos showed a heck of a lot of in-season improvement last season and the momentum has continued into the current campaign. Currently Denver is second in the NFL in scoring defense and the third fewest yards per game. They are best in the league in yards allowed per play, and has been the best stop unit in the NFL in red zone touchdown defense. If you’re looking for someone to give credit to, try Vance Joseph, who is fashioning a case to get hired again as a head coach somewhere.

The Broncos don’t really have a high-powered offense, but all indications are that rookie quarterback Bo Nix has been catching on very well. After throwing four interceptions in his first two starts, he’s been picked off only twice since, with 65% accuracy overall.

We know that Payton wanted to design an offense in the same mold as the one he had in New Orleans with Drew Brees, centered around short passes. Nix came to the NFL (as Payton’s first-round draft pick) as a guy who was more or less a dink-and-dunker.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing for Denver’s purposes. But it’s perhaps worth pointing out that with regard to IAY (Intended Air Yards) per attempt, which basically you how far he throws the ball beyond the line of scrimmage, he is not at the bottom of the list of NFL quarterbacks, but instead in the middle (17th, to be exact). That puts him ahead of the likes of Kirk Cousins, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff. 

You can’t be too happy about the Browns’ offensive metrics, no matter who is at quarterback. And that makes this a tough matchup against a Denver team that seems designed to shut them down. This is certainly not a team that is going through the motions coming down the stretch. Their 7-5 record puts them right in the hunt for a playoff spot, with the Ravens and Chargers and whoever else wants to put up a late run. 

We’re okay with laying the points.

THE PLAY: BRONCOS -5.5 (-105)


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