The NCAA Tournament men's Sweet 16 tips off Thursday, March 27 and continues Friday with all four No. 1 seeds favored by at least 6-points as I outline in my initial Sweet Sixteen coverage here at Off Shore Gaming Association, where the March Madness contests are most popular again including those at the leading online sportsbook. Included are the matchups of top teams in the East and West regions with Duke and Florida headlining games Thursday and the South and Midwest regions top teams Auburn and Houston trying to advance to the Elite Eight this weekend. 

Also, a key SEC matchup in the Sweet 16 Friday is No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee, as seven Southeastern Conference teams remain for a record 14 SEC teams that made the 2025 NCAA Tournament. I outlined those top teams in my coverage at Forbes, along with more March Madness betting coverage. 

How Do No. 1 Seeds Do In Sweet Sixteen? 

I provided historical data the past decade on No. 1 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen along with stats on this year's four No. 1 seeds plus additional information you can bet on in my Sweet 16 coverage in Forbes. All four No. 1 seeds this year play a No. 4 or No. 5 seeds. Number 1 seeds are just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 ATS in those matchups the last 3 years. That follows a run of 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS for No. 1 seeds in the Sweet 16 from 2015-2021.

Sweet Sixteen Matchups And Odds

There has been some line movement since matchup odds were initially released. The biggest move is the total in the Michigan-Auburn game from 149.5 to 153.5 with the spread also up slightly to -9 at BetOnline. The other big total move is Alabama/BYU 172.5 to 176. 

The Sweet Sixteen action report from BetOnline shows more spread bets on Duke than all other Sweet 16 teams.

Early bet count:

51% Bama -5.5 v BYU
63% Florida -6.5 v Maryland
71% Duke -9.5 v Arizona
53% Arkansas +5.5 v Texas Tech
67% Michigan St -3.5 v Ole Miss
61% Kentucky +4 v Tennessee
51% Michigan +8.5 v Auburn
55% Houston -8 v Purdue

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) March 26, 2025

Sweet Sixteen Picks

Opinions only in the 2025 Sweet 16 as we shoot for more winners after posting 3-0 picks and opinions in last year's Sweet Sixteen. 

Maryland (+6.5 or 7) vs. Florida - Thursday
Michigan State (-3 or 3.5) vs. Ole Miss - Friday
Tennessee (-4 or 4.5) vs. Kentucky - Friday 

Michigan State is on a 10-1 SU/ATS run and ranks No. 1 in 3-point defense as Big Ten regular season champs and No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 11 in effective FG% defense. Michigan State shoots the 3-ball very poorly, but they'll get more open looks in this matchup with Ole Miss switching more on defense. The Spartans are also top-10 in limiting opponents offensive rebounds. Ole Miss has been sharp in the NCAA Tourney after finishing T6 in the SEC. But they struggled mightily in shooting when losing to Auburn in the SEC tourney 62-57. The Rebels are poor defending 2-point shots (51.6% KenPom) and even worse offensive rebounding ranking outside the top-300 in NCAA. Like Sparty with Izzo, they are supremely well-coached by Chris Beard, but side with Spartans and Lean Under game total.

Action Network reports that coach Tom Izzo’s Michigan State teams are 44-9 SU and 32-19-2 ATS as favorites in the NCAA Tournament. The market and many handicappers are split on this Sweet 16 contest between Michigan State and Ole Miss, but the line is up from -2.5 to -3 and hitting -3.5 in places favoring the Spartans. 

Stats and Profiles of a National Champion

21 of the last 22 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency rankings. Five teams remain and fit the profile.
- Duke (1 offense, 4 defense)
- Florida (2,10)
- Auburn (3,12)
- Houston (10,1)
- Tennessee (17,3) 

Top teams in 2-point field goal defense for the season (45% of better)
- Duke (43.1%)
- Houston (44.3%)

Top teams offensive rebounding percentage (greater than 36%, KenPom)
- Florida (38.7%)
- Houston (36.6%)
- Arizona (36.1%)

Scoring Margin leaders
- Duke (+21.5)
- Florida (+16.1)
- Houston (+16.1)
- Maryland (+14.8)
- Auburn (+14.2) 

Only 1 team has won the NCAA Tournament and national championship if they started the tournament 0-2 ATS. That was the 1997 Arizona Wildcats. The 2025 Florida Gators are 0-2 against the spread while winning their first two games. 

I saw a post on another sports betting news site at TheLines that showed the last nine teams to hit a buzzer-beater in the NCAA tournament have gone 2-7 straight up in the following game. Maryland beat Colorado State in the second round 72-71 on a last second buzzer beater.  

Elite Eight Matchups, Odds, Picks

Sat., March 29

East - Prudential Center (Newark, NJ) 

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 1 Duke (-7) | Total 174.5 | 8:49 p.m. | TBS/truTV

Pick: Alabama

West - Chase Center (San Francisco, CA)

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Florida (-6.5) | Total 157 | 6:09 p.m. | TBS/truTV

Sun., March 30

South - State Farm Arena (Atlanta, GA)

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Auburn (-4.5/5) | Total 149.5 | 5:05 p.m. | CBS

Midwest - Lucas Oil Stadium, (Indianapolis, IN)

No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Houston (-3.5/4) | Total 123.5  | 1:20 p.m. | TBS

Pick: Tennessee 

Also, March Madness TV ratings surged to a 32-year high for the first two rounds as games across CBS, TNT, TBS and truTV averaged of 9.4 million viewers - highest rated since the 1993 tournament. The First Round had 8.8 million viewers per game—up 2% from 2024. Clearly more watch and wager interest with added sportsbook payouts for more bettors as favorites went 36-12 SU and 26-22 ATS in the opening two rounds.

I'll update more stats, odds and any picks as the Elite Eight games are determined and odds posted from the top online sportsbooks. 

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and insightful analyst. He chips college basketball and additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on  X: @FairwayJay