MLB Playoff Betting -- Braves Bring a Lot of Offense Into Game 1 vs. Marlins

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Oct 6th, 2020 12:05:47 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Miami Marlins try to continue wit their storybook season as they take on the Atlanta Braves in Game 1 of the NLDS at Minute Maid Park in Houston.


The Miami Marlins have had an extraordinary season, and after making the playoffs, which no one had expected at the outset of the campaign, they swept past the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field to get a step farther. Now they will take their best shot at the Atlanta Braves in the National League Divisional Series, set for 2:08 PM ET at the neutral site of Minute Maid Park in Houston.

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Miami, which looked a little helpless last year, losing 105 games, which left them 40 games behind the Braves in the NL East, added some veteran help in the off-season. That included Jesus Aguilar, who as recently as two years ago had over 100 RBI and attained All-Star status with Milwaukee, but had been left on the scrap heap by Tampa Bay. He's rebounded with eight homers and 34 RBI in the 60-game season.

And the Marlins got great pitching performances from Sandy Alcantara and Sixto Sanchez against the Cubs. Alcantara, who gave up one run in 6-2/3 innings in Game 1, is slated to be Tuesday's starter. Max Fried, who had a 2.25 ERA and threw seven scoreless innings against the Cincinnati Reds in the previous series, gets the nod for Atlanta.

We trust that the outcome of this particular game won't resemble the September 9 meeting, when the Braves erupted for eleven runs in the second inning en route to a 29-9 win.

In the MLB playoff betting odds posted on this game by the people at BetAnySports, the Braves are sizable favorites:

Atlanta Braves -195
Miami Marlins +183

Over 8 Runs -115
Under 8 Runs -105

Braves -1.5 Runs +100
Marlins +1.5 Runs -120

The Marlins certainly hope that Marcell Ozuna doesn't come back to haunt them. He left Miami in one of Derek Jeter's early trades, and he tore up the short season, leading the National League in homers (18) and RBI (56) while finishing third in batting (.338). And he's hardly the only guy who offers a threatening presence.

Freddie Freeman, who had some tales of woe regarding the coronavirus, rebounded to hit .341 with 13 homers, 53 RBI and a league-leading 23 doubles, which, not for nothing, would have projected to 62 for a 162-game season, just five off the all-time one-year record. And Ronald Acuna Jr., who got close to becoming a 40-40 guy last season, hit 14 homers in what may be considered an "off" year. He was 4-for-11 against Cincinnati in the wild card series.

Yes, there is a lot of firepower for the Marlins to worry about. Atlanta led the majors in OPS this season, and they were second in scoring. By contrast, the Marlins, who have only one .300 hitter in the regular starting lineup, were 24th in OPS. And there was no definite word on the status of Starling Marte, who has been sitting out with a hand injury.

One consideration that is important involves how the managers are going to handle the bullpen. There are no days off in this best-of-five series, so starting pitchers may have to be relied upon to go innings. Alcantara averaged six innings per start. And the Marlins ranked 26th among 30 teams in bullpen ERA this season.

There's a lot of "feel-good" surrounding this Miami squad, but in Game 1, and this series, for that matter, I don't feel good about their chances. We don't usually like to do this, but the run line at even money might be the way to go. 

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