NFL Week 6 Picks, Props, Parlays And Insight

The 2025 NFL Week 6 schedule features just two division games and the Giants put the hammer down on the Eagles with point of attack play outrushing Philly 172-73 in a 34-17 win as 7.5-point underdog. Rookie RB Cam Skattebo ran for 3 touchdowns to hand the Eagles their second-straight loss.

Along with our picks, props and parlays below, with an 11-0 run the last three weeks on player props, review my NFL tips, totals, teasers and trends for Week 6 and every week at Off Shore Gaming Association.   

Fairway's Forecast on NFL player props has been scoring touchdowns in bunches for top payouts, going 11-0 in weeks 3, 4, 5 on player prop picks and opinions, recommendations. Check out more below and any additions into Sunday as we research, review, handicap and study the stats and matchups to provide you more winning information you can bet on. 

NFL Week 6 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BookMaker and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites as of Monday night plus game totals, and division games in bold. 

- Philadelphia (-7.5) at New York Giants, 40.5 (Thursday)
- Denver (-7) vs. New York Jets, 43 (London)
- Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6), 38.5
- Arizona at Indianapolis (-7.5), 46.5
- Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Baltimore, 44.5
- Seattle (-1) at Jacksonville, 47.5
- Dallas (-3 / 3.5) at Carolina, 49.5
- Los Angeles Chargers (-4) at Miami, 43
- New England (-3.5) at New Orleans, 45.5
- Tennessee at Las Vegas (-4), 42
- San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3), 47
- Cincinnati at Green Bay (-14.5), 44.5
- Detroit at Kansas City (-2.5), 52.5  (Sunday Night)
- Buffalo (-4.5) at Atlanta, 49.5 (Monday)
- Chicago at Washington (-4.5), 50 (Monday) 

Notable line moves from last week's lookahead lines includes Colts from -3.5 to -7.5, Raiders -6.5 to -4 and Bills -5.5 to -3.5 or 4. Also, from preseason lines to Week 6 adjustments and injury impacts, the Ravens (-5.5) were nearly a TD favorite over the Rams prior to the season, and LA is now a -7.5 point road favorite. The Packers were -2.5 over the Bengals ahead of the season, and now -14.5. The Cardinals were a -1.5 point road favorite at Indianapolis, and now the Colts are -7.5 with yet another quarterback suffering through injury with Kyler Murray battling turf toe. The AFC North has lost Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and 40-year old Joe Flacco as starters with Flacco traded from the Browns to the Bengals this week to get the start at Green Bay. The lone remaining starter standing in the AFC North is Steelers 41-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers. 

Also, our 2025 NFL Week 6 totals picks on Lions-Chiefs 'over' has seen the game total move from 50.5 to 52.5. Our Seahawks-Jaguars 'over' pick has also seen a sharp move upward from 45 to 47.5 since I chipped-in those recommendations early week. 

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Scoring is up to 47.1 points per game this season after NFL Week 5 averaged 49.3 points per game highlighted by thge  MNF Jaguars rally to win over the Chiefs 31-28 along with the Lions 4th straight win, 37-24 at Cincinnati and one of the best games this season with QB passing clinics in the Buccaneers 38-35 win at Seattle. 

NFL Week 6 Picks

Be sure to review the NFL injury reports as teams like the Ravens and now Seahawks are decimated on defense. 

Picks: Panthers   
Opinions: Seahawks, Chargers, Falcons 

Any additions Sunday and Monday. More player props below. 

3-team parlay: Seahawks, Chargers, Lions/Chiefs 'over'  
2-team 'Dog parlay: Panthers, Falcons

Straight Up Winners in Competitvely Lined Games 

Picking the outright winner in competitively-lined NFL games (6-points or less) has produced a 53-4 ATS record this season, and continues a strong result historically. So if you like underdogs, like we did when posting 57% ATS winners over 7 years at OSGA from 2017-2023, then a portion of your bet should be on the moneyline. 

Chargers-Dolphins - But Miami is not a 'Dog of interest this week, as the Dolphins are just 3-16 ATS when facing a .500 or better team and not getting at least 6 points under coach Mike McDaniel (per Dr. Bob Sports). The Chargers have struggled with offensive line injuries, but they get back on track this week and LA's strong defense and pressure with new DL added this week adds to the Chargers defense that is allowing just 5.6 yards per pass play (No. 3 NFL). I don't lay road chalk much at all, and especially more than a FG. But there are exceptions to every rule, and despite injuries on the OL, our rushing guidelines still support the Chargers making them a positive ATS play. Chargers QB Herbert will hit some big pass plays against Miami's least talented cornerbacks in the NFL allowing 0.51 EPA/target to opposing wide receivers (30th). Bonus bet Chargers team total 'over' 24 points.   

Seahawks-Jaguars - Jacksonville is 4-1 but the Jaguars have been outgained 5.4 yards per play to 5.6 yppl. The Jags +8 turnover margin is a league-best, but not sustainable, and the Jaguars OL is without their starting center and top pass efficiency lineman. Not good vs. a Seahawks top interior trio on defense, but we do acknowledge Seahawks have three other defenders doubtful for this game including 2 cornerbacks. Seattle's 84% zone coverage rate (5th-highest) and a 79% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest) are problematic and bad matchups for the Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence. But Seattle's secondary injuries give Jags offense opportunities if Lawrence has time to pass. Seahawks team total 'over' another scoring option and way to bet with the favorite flipped. 

Jets-Broncos (London) - Jets clueless and inept QB Justin Fields leads the only winless team this season with another questionable head coaching hire at this point. New York (0-5) has not forced a turnover this season, while -8 turnover margin  is league-worst and too many penalties are problematic. New York averages 70 yards penalties per game, but the Broncos are actually league-worst (82). Still, Denver QB Bo Nix is 9-2 ATS as a favorite for the Broncos, and Denver averages 141 rushing ypg, just behind the Jets (144) for top-5 in the league including 5.4 and 5.0 yards per rush among the league's best. The difference is on defense, where the Jets allow 140/4.5 and the Broncos top-5 allowing just 88 rushing ypg. Denver has a 14 points per game better defense, a 58 ypg better defense, and the all important 1.1 net yards per play differential. Add Broncos to your teaser bets. 

Lions-Chiefs featured game Sunday Night Football

The Lions are second in the NFL in points per drive (2.89), and the Chiefs are fifth (2.66). Additional stats from Sharp Football research shows both the Lions (47.4%) and Chiefs (51.1%) are top-5 in scoring percentage of drives, and both teams are top-5 in turnover percentage per drive (4-5.3%). The Lions scoring plays have produced 77.8% touchdowns - highest rate in the league. But Detroit's defense has allowed 73.7% of scoring plays to be touchdowns - No. 30 in the league.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes has posted a new season high in yards per attempt in each of the past two weeks with the return of WR Xavier Worthy. The Lions defense is now without two key starting cornerbacks, and both safeties are questionable after missing practice Friday. 

The Lions and QB Jared Goff use play action on 32.4% of dropbacks - second highest in the league. Against play action passes, the Chiefs are 31st in rating allowed (119.5), surrendering 10.0 yards per pass attempt (31st) and a 74.7% completion rate (28th).

NFL Player Props And Picks 

You can check out our NFL Week 3 and NFL Week 4 (7-0) player props along with NFL Week 5, as those picks, opinions and recommendations on player props are on a 11-0 run. 

Panthers RB Rico Dowdle – over 72.5 rushing yards. The former Cowboys running back will start with Hubbard sidelined (calf), and he’ll be running hard and getting chances against a Cowboys defense allowing an average of 29 rush attempts per game and 127 yards per game. Dowdle broke out last week with 23 rushes for 206 yards and 1 TD in the Panthers come-from-behind win over Miami, 27-24. Panthers clueless QB Bryce Young continues to prove he's not an NFL caliber starting quarterback, and you can see some of his inefficient stats and matchup potential against the Cowboys zone defense (81%, 4th highest). Every quarterback the Cowboys defense has faced this season has been QB7 or better in weekly scoring, and that's against a bunch of bumbling bro's who are mostly inefficient - Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams. Young has few excuses again, but we're counting on more running game success with Dowdle leading the way. 

Additional prop bet above on Chargers team total 'over' 24 points. 

Please note that player props odds, yardages and promotions vary more greatly at leading online sportsbooks. Do your best to shop various props, odds and options, and if you're going to BetAnything, you may be prudent in your plays with reduced juice sportsbooks and options. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.