Underdog betting trends in college football

There’s nothing more gratifying when it comes to college football betting than identifying a double-digit underdog that not only ends up covering but wins straight up (SU) as well. Like with any business, finding a right value which affords one the most probable opportunity to succeed isn’t exactly easy, or else everyone would be doing it. However, when it does transpire, the result leaves a much sweeter taste in one’s mouth. Furthermore, it lays a fundamental guideline which aids in recognizing similar opportunities moving forward.

2018 Double-Digit Dogs
Through the results of 9/22, college football double digit underdogs have gone 98-92-4 against the spread (ATS) this season. Based on betting $110 to win $100 on teams in that precise point-spread parameter, it’s produced a loss of $320. That’s not exactly an attractive proposition. Additionally, only 20 of those 194 teams (10.3%) were able to win straight up. Nevertheless, exploring ways for finding ATS betting value within those conditions is the basis for this article. By the way, according to all major offshore sportsbooks, there are 28 teams on the college football week 5 card who are currently underdogs of 10.0-points or more, and 22 of which play on the road.

Double-Digit Home Underdogs
Since 1980, college football home underdogs of 10.0-points or greater who won their previous game, and excluding pushes, resulted in those teams going 304-263 (53.6%). Based on the previously alluded to $100 per game formula, betting those double-digit home underdogs without querying any other factor produced a profit of $1470. Moreover, if those home teams didn’t play during the previous week’s action, and are presently facing a conference opponent, they improved to an outstanding 58-34 ATS (63%) since 1980. Although, it must be noted, that identical scenario hasn’t occurred since 2016 when it happened twice, and those double-digit home underdogs covered on each occasion.

Double-Digit Away Underdogs
Now that you have some acumen on profiting from college football double-digit home underdogs, we’ll examine how we can do the same with away underdogs of 10.0-points or more. Excluding pushes, and since 1980, double-digit away underdogs have gone an unprofitable 4013-4025 ATS (49.9%), and $100 per game bettors lost $41,700. That’s not exactly inspiring to say the least. Nonetheless, and upon further review, I’ve been able to ascertain how to profit on these sizable away underdogs. If those teams are playing with 9 or more days of rest while facing a conference opponent, and they’re coming off a non-conference game, it resulted in them going 88-56 ATS (61.1%) during that precise time frame. Tightening boundaries up even further, shows those teams going a lucrative 26-10 ATS (72.2%) if they failed to cover their previous game by 10.0-points or more, and an even better 25-7 ATS (78.1%) when its point-spread is +10.0 to +27.0 points, while also comprising of 14-2 ATS (87.5%) since 2002.

Double-Digit Home Favorites off Away Upset Wins
I’m going to shift gears a bit while somewhat keeping the same theme. Now let’s research how we can make money on teams coming off away underdog straight up win, and specifically the ones who achieved those upsets while being +10.0-points or more during that previous contest.
Since 1994, home favorites that are coming off an away underdog of 10.0-points or more straight-up win have gone 115-93 ATS (55.3%) in their following game. Once again, and based on betting to win $100 per game, this betting system has shown a profit of $1270. When compressing those betting parameters beyond that basic query, if those home teams were a favorite of 10.0-points or more, they became an even grander money-making 69-38 ATS (64.4%). When expanding my probes by 2 more steps I arrived at this. If those double-digit home favorites were facing a conference opponent who was playing with revenge, they become an even more impactful 32-13 ATS (71.1%).

Final Thoughts
Regardless of what some unethical and immoral loud-mouthed touts would have you believe, there are no mortal locks applicable to college football betting, or any other sports wagering for that matter. Show me someone in the sports handicapping industry that professes college football betting angles of a large sample size are without merit, and I’ll emphatically respond by saying those individuals don’t have the wherewithal nor resources to arrive at such conclusions. My favorite adage is simple yet profound. “Numbers don’t lie, and liars don’t figure”. I rest my case.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com