Is Vegas Dying?

Casino travel to Las Vegas is down dramatically and will likely only get worse unless Trump reverses some policies

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority just revealed that there was a 6.5% decrease in tourism in May compared to the same period last year. And based on comments from business owners in the city they expect the decline to be even bigger for June. In fact, since February of 2025 tourism has declined more each month than the last. There are several factors being attributed to the decline: Donald Trump’s tariff policies and immigration fears seem to be the two biggest reasons for the decline, although some local decisions regarding fees are to blame as well.

Las Vegas has always been a preferred destination for Canadians, by far and away the largest foreign country that visits Sin City, and any reduction in visits from Canadians has a large effect on Las Vegas’ economy. Aside from 2020 to 2022 when Canadian visits were well below a million due to COVID-19, the number of visitors from Canada has always hovered between 1.4 and 1.6 million each year. In 2018 there were 1.6 million visits, in 2019 there were 1.42 million visits, in 2023 there were 1.48 million visits and in 2024 there was about 1.42 million visits. The slight drop in 2024 was attributed to the low Canadian dollar compared to the U.S. dollar which made it more expensive to visit the U.S.

So far in 2025 there has reportedly been roughly a 16% decline in visits from Canada almost exclusively attributed to Donald Trump’s tariffs, which Canadians view as unwarranted, as well as Trump’s threat to annex the country and make it the 51st state. Consequently, many Canadians have adopted a form of protest called 
"elbows up" where they are pushing back against the U.S. and traveling anywhere but there. While tourism to Las Vegas has been particularly hit hard, states like Florida and California have also seen large declines in Canadian visits and many border towns that rely on Canadian tourism and cross-border shopping have said that the lack of Canadian tourists could result in the closure of some businesses. As a result, some places in Maine, New York, Minnesota, Washington and Michigan are offering huge incentives to Canadians to travel there and are actually holding rallies to tell Canadian visitors how much they are valued and missed.

Trump and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have said that the tariffs and threat of annexation are warranted since they claim Canada has closed off its market to the U.S., although facts say otherwise. While it’s true that meat and dairy exports to Canada have a high tariff rate for all countries after they exceed a certain quota (a result of a strategy to protect farmers and ensure quality control), almost everything else brought into Canada has no tariffs. And if oil and gas is removed from the equation, a product which Canada sells to the U.S. at a fraction of what they sell to other countries, the United States in fact has a large surplus in trade. Moreover, Trump only looks at goods, but in the service industry such as banking, insurance, hospitality  and restaurants, the U.S. has a massive surplus.

In 2023 the U.S. exported $86 billion of services to Canada while Canada exported $54.3 billion of services to the United States. American restaurants, hotel chains, insurance companies and banks are prevalent in Canada but there are next to none in the U.S. that are solely Canadian. And as for casino companies, Caesars and Mohegan have a big presence with three large resort-casinos in Ontario, and the majority of online casinos in Ontario are American owned and operated.

Decline is not just Canada

It's not just from Canada, however, that Las Vegas is seeing a huge decline in visitors. Visits from Mexicans to Las Vegas has dropped to fractional levels over immigration fears along with tariffs, and the percentage of visits from Europe are actually even lower than that of Canada or Mexico due to anger by Europeans over American economic policies and also because many European countries including the UK have put travel warnings against travelling to the United States.

An editorial in one online European newspaper said that visiting the U.S. these days is like a game of Russian Roulette because visitors risk being  arrested and jailed in the U.S. for no reason other than the color of their skin and/or their lack of English communication skills. And in Asia, travel to Las Vegas has dropped to record low levels after countries there warned citizens against traveling to the U.S. due to uncertainty in many areas including uncertainty with immigration agents. It seems that Las Vegas’ loss is Macau’s gain as travel to that country from Asians and particularly China has increased dramatically so far in 2025. If it weren’t for Americans visiting Las Vegas, the city would likely be forced to make decisions like it did in 2020 when the casinos were forced to close because of covid.

I spoke with a colleague who works for a Las Vegas casino and asked just how bad it is and he said it’s not just bad, it’s dire.

“I have never seen Vegas this empty aside from the covid years. Hotel rooms that would be almost 100% occupancy are lucky to be three-quarters full and it’s affecting everything from hotel workers to restaurants to entertainment venues. And it’s only been 6 months since Trump has been in power. Hell, it seems like 6 decades. I think the industry here is hoping it will all blow over soon like covid, but they also know this is much different. It’s the devastation of the pandemic times ten. There are talks about massive layoffs and possibly even more hotels filing bankruptcy unless something changes. And what is worse is that nobody seems happy. Vegas was always a place where everyone smiled, but it seems these days everyone is angry, frustrated and scared. It’s awful. One thing I can tell you is that almost everyone I spoke to who voted for Trump in 2024 said they wish they had their votes back. They thought he would bring prosperity back to Las Vegas but instead his policies are leading to higher prices, economic uncertainty and layoffs. It’s like being promised a bag of gold and instead being given a bag of manure. At least I can sleep at night since I voted for Harris.”

Resort Fees

Aside from the effects of Trump policies, Vegas is also suffering from its recent decisions to milk every dollar from visitors and even locals. A lot of people have told me that the resort fees have become insane with strip casinos charging between $45 and $55 per night and off-strip casinos charging between $30 and $50 per night. This means that any hotel stay effectively has a 10 to 20 percent addition to the room fee. And that only provides things like free Wi-Fi and access to the gym, which most don’t use, and which are generally always free at other hotels. Pools and other amenities that are almost always free everywhere else often have an additional fee for use for hotel guests and there is always a fee charged to locals. Some visitors claim that the pools are always overcrowded due to locals and if you want a cabana you can expect to pay up to $50 for an hour of usage if there is one available, which is rare in the summer. In contrast, many resort casinos located elsewhere in the U.S. have far lower resort fees and some resort casinos in Connecticut and upstate New York have no additional resort fees. Atlantic City does charge resort fees but they are about half that of Las Vegas and include more amenities.

What also has many visitors and locals upset are that rewards points get you next to nothing these days. Many recall the days when a person playing blackjack for a few hours straight would result in the pit boss asking if the person needed a room for the night or wanted a free show. But now with everything being connected to player cards and the amount of play being strictly monitored, one would likely need to play several thousand dollars before they would even be considered for a free meal or hotel stay. Based on the rate of 1 tier credit for every $5 spent by Caesars, a person needs to wager about $25,000 to get a free night (5,000 points) for a basic room at Caesars Palace, which most bettors say is ridiculous. Other resort casinos in the U.S. and Canada require far less play to get comps for hotel stays, meals or show tickets. As well, many people have said that the table limits in Vegas are insane, usually as high as $50 to play a hand of blackjack, and 6-5 blackjack has become the norm. It is still mesmerizing to many players and even to myself how it makes more sense to have a bunch of empty tables with $50 limits rather than having full tables with $10 limits. Casino managers have always claimed it’s a business decision with solid reasoning, although they have yet to provide proof for that reasoning.

Online Gambling

The last issue that is hurting visits to Vegas is legal casino gambling. While only seven states currently allow casino wagering online, it is far different outside the U.S. In Canada, most of Central America and Europe all forms of online gambling are legal. Thus, the appeal of traveling internationally to Vegas to gamble simply doesn’t exist as one can play just as easily as online. The reasons to go to Vegas is still the sights, sounds, shows and atmosphere. But if visitors fear being there due to policies of the U.S. federal government, there is really no reason to go to Vegas. “What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas” was always meant to apply to salacious activities, not fear of being detained by ICE agents because you forgot your passport in the hotel room.

So, Vegas is struggling mightily due to the policies of Donald Trump and when the full 2025 year figures come in, it’s almost certain revenues will be close to 2022 figures when the pandemic was just ending. While Vegas overcame the pandemic, it’s uncertain whether it will overcome this, particularly if Trump’s policies stay in place until 2028 and perhaps even longer if he is able to convince the Supreme Court to allow him a third term. But if things don’t improve and improve fast, prepare for announcements of massive layoffs in Sin City and perhaps even closures of some popular casinos. At the current occupancy rates, it’s just not viable for some of these casinos to continue unless there is change.

As my colleague said things aren’t just bad in Las Vegas, they are dire . . . 

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