Free NCAA pick for the Wisconsin Season opener

The #19 Wisconsin Badgers travel to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida to take on South Florida. It will be the 2019 season opening game for both teams. At this present time (8/27), the college football betting odds at Heritage is showing Wisconsin as a sizable 12.5-point road favorite.



No Momentum for South Florida

South Florida began last season by winning their first 7 games. Unfortunately for Bulls backers, their team finished the year on a 6-game losing streak. As a matter of fact, 1 of their 7 wins came against an FCS program in Elon, and the other 6 were versus FBS teams which ended 2018 with losing records.

Badgers Winning Tradition

Wisconsin is coming off an 8-5 season in 2018 which concluded with a 35-3 bowl game win over Miami Fla. Paul Chryst is set to begin his 5th season as head coach at Wisconsin. During his first 4 campaigns, the Badgers have gone a combined 45-12 (.789).

When researching Wisconsin’s recent betting history as a road favorite, I discovered a compelling fact. Since 2012, the Badgers are a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of -11.5 to -16.5, and they won by a substantial average of 27.0-points per game.

College Football Season Opening Game Betting Angle

Any college football non-conference road favorite of -11.0 to -19.0 (Wisconsin) that’s playing in their season opener, and they won 8, 9, or 10 games the year before, versus an opponent (South Florida) that won 3 or more games during its previous season, resulted in those road favorites going 17-2 ATS since 1992. Those road chalks also won all 19 of those contests straight up, and they did so by a decisive margin of 26.5 points per game.

Final Take

I ordinarily shy away from laying points on the road when it comes to NCAA football betting. Nonetheless, this situation calls for an exception to that personal preference.

Pick: Wisconsin -12.5

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com