As BetOnline customers may have noticed, the Duke Blue Devils haven’t missed too many beats after the retirement of Mike Krzyzewski. Jon Scheyer, the former Duke player and assistant who inherited the job from Coach K, will be taking an 89-21 record into the Final Four. And he is doing so with the top freshman class in the nation.

Meanwhile, Kelvin Sampson has been going at it for years and years. Having gone to the Big Dance with Washington State, Oklahoma and Indiana, he is now set to compete in his third Final Four - and second as head man for the Houston Cougars.

It’s a national semi-final game, with the winner moving on to the NCAA championship contest against the winner between Florida and Auburn. We’ll tip off at 9:49 PM ET at the Alamodome in San Antonio.

Duke (35-3 XU, 25-13 ATS) is currently riding a 15-game winning streak, and blew by an explosive Alabama squad to get here. Against the Crimson Tide, they held Mark Sears - who had 34 points with nine triples against BYU - to one three-point field goal and six points total. The Blue Devils have been on some torrid streaks in this NCAA Tournament; against Baylor they hit 64% from the field. And 6-7 forward Kon Knueppel is making for the second half of a dynamic freshman duo with national player of the year Cooper Flagg.

Houston (34-4 SU, 20-17-1 ATS) has now won 17 straight games, and they have beaten quality competition like Gonzaga, Purdue and Tennessee in the NCAA’s. They lost only one game in the Big 12 Conference. And of their four defeats, three of them have come in overtime. The floor leader is LJ Cryer, who was part of a national championship team at Baylor in 2021 (which, incidentally, beat Houston by 19 points along the way). That season he played only one minute in the title game against Gonzaga. But in this tourney he tied his career high with 30 points in an 81-76 victory. He’s hit just eight of 30 shots in the two games since.

Here are the numbers……..

In the Final Four basketball odds that have been posted by BetOnline on this game, the Blue Devils are laying points:

Duke Blue Devils -5
Houston Cougars +5 

Over 136.5 Points -110
Under 136.5 Points -110

Please don’t forget that you can cover all the angles on this game by pulling up Prop Builder. It gives you hundreds of places to direct your action!

Making the case for the Duke Blue Devils

First of all, Duke has the best player on the floor. Cooper Flagg is going to be taken #1 in the NBA Draft. He is as versatile as it gets, and it is virtually impossible to neutralize him. Flagg, a 6-9 swingman, has scored 78 points in the tournament - 30 of them against Arizona. He brings averages of 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists.

There are very few weaknesses here. Duke has better defensive numbers than it’s had in the past. This year they have surrendered a lower Effective Field Goal percentage than anyone. They have permitted opponents only 43.3% on two-point shots. One of the reasons is that they have a lot of height. And the principal rim protector is Khaman Maluach, a 7-2 presence who can control the boards and alter shots, and could be a lottery pick in the upcoming draft. He’s an “X” factor for Duke.

Scheyer’s team can really shoot, from wherever they are on the floor. And they take more than their share of triples (45% of all FG attempts). Often the first tournament game for these high seeds is a laugher, but in their last three outings the Blue Devils have been 53.7% accurate from beyond the arc. And with 79% accuracy from the free throw line, they don’t leave a lot of points on the table.

Duke is not only loaded; they are balanced as well. They can all score, and even with limited range, Maluach hits 76% inside the arc. Aside from him, they line up at 6-9, 6-7, 6-6 and 6-6. And that helps them guard all positions, even when in the middle of a switch. 

Making the case for the Houston Cougars

The Cougars really get after it on defense; they are well-drilled by Sampson, who has always emphasized it. They believe in a lot of ball pressure, and it turns out they are one of the 20 best in the nation in forcing turnovers. Houston is ranked #1 in the country in Defensive Efficiency.

There is no question that Duke is going to have a size advantage here. But these Cougars are an incredibly aggressive team on the boards, ranking 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.

Houston does not rely on three-pointers as much as Duke does; only a third of their field goal attempts are taken from downtown. But if they need it, they can use it; they are second in the nation at 39.7%. At any given time, they can have three sharpshooters on the floor at the same time. Cryer has hit 42%, while Emanuel Sharp hits 41.5% and Miles Uzan (22 points vs. Purdue) is 41.5% accurate.

Houston plays at an extremely slow pace; they are ranked 360th among 365 Division I teams in Adjusted Tempo. They take their time to set up on offense and on defense they make their opponents work hard for a shot.

Drawing our conclusion

Duke has been impressive in this tournament, but there are some good reasons to look toward the Cougars.

For one thing, they were beaten in regulation only once (by Auburn) and nobody beat them by more than five. If they can force anything close to the pace they usually operate at, they will reduce the number of possessions. And then some of their best qualities come into play.

They allow just 30.3% from the arc and 44.5% inside of it, which mean they’re not going to be manhandled anywhere in the halfcourt, and let’s face it - when you have a close game with a reduced pace, it’s difficult to create a lot of distance against a team that can shoot almost 40% from three-point territory. Indeed, they’ve hit 39% over their last five games. 

Yes, there is a chance they’re going to put Duke on the line a little too much, but they also may be able to extract an advantage in the game-within-a-game of garnering “extra possessions.” They can do this with their ability to pound the offensive glass, as well as their penchant for forcing turnovers, while at the same time not turning it over themselves (top 20 in that category as well).

So we think it’s going to be hard to stretch a lead against them. Duke may indeed advance to the title game, but the value here is to grab points with HOUSTON.

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