Favorites expected to dominate in Chicago

Not the best week to bet if you like to longer shots, as the field is shortened to 69 players and the market leaders are likely to rise up this week. But the FedEx Cup Playoffs will provide plenty of intrigue for the BMW Championship as the field is reduced to 30 players for next week's Tour Championship at East Lake, where $15 million awaits the winner. But recent history shows eight major champion winners from the 12 different FedEx Cup playoff event winners since 2015. That means less longshot winners, but Patrick Reed did manage to win at 50-1 odds at the leading online sportsbooks in last week’s FedEx playoff event in The Northern Trust.

A $1.665 million payday goes to the BWM Championship winner this week, and big hitters will have an edge with the length at tree-lined Medinah Country Club in suburban Chicago. The rough is up, fairway's narrowed and many doglegs for the longer hitters to cut the corners and attack pins with shorter irons. But accuracy, ball striking and approach to green are still of most significance, making key stats to study this week:

Strokes Gained: Approach the Green

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee  

The top online sportsbooks have posted odds and match-ups, and while shopping and betting with an edge is encouraged, it's tougher this week and next week to isolate weaker players in match-ups with fewer to choose from and only the best players remaining in the FedEx Cup playoffs. 

BookMaker sportsbook has posted odds to win on all 69 players, and I've added the top 30 below, which includes Open Championship winner Shane Lowry, who was a longshot on our card for the British Open at Royal Portush last month. 

There is no cut this week, so tournament match-ups will go the 72-hole distance. The current FedEx Cup points standings shows there is much at stake and money to play for, not only in cash, but the top-30 players that make it to the Tour Championship next week at East Lake also qualify for all four majors next year and can play in just about any event on Tour in 2020.  

Odds to Win BMW Championship at BookMaker.eu - top 30 players 

Of the leading favorites to win, here is Fairway's Foursome. 

Justin Rose has five top-20 finishes in his last five starts including 3rd at the U.S. Open. His move to putting coach Phil Kenyon has allowed Rose to bloom on the greens, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Putting and No. 2 in that category this year. Rose had some wayward iron shots last week and his driving stats and SG: Off the Tee numbers are outside the top 50, but he's still a contender to consider with 10 career PGA Tour wins as he nears age 40. 

Justin Thomas has finished top-12 in each of his last three tournaments, and was top-5 in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green in each event. He leads the field in that category this year. Thomas is also 5th in Greens in Regulation and 1st in Birdie Average. He comments about his game during last week's event were very positive, and while he's playing well yet without a victory this year, a 10th career PGA Tour win would not be a surprise.

Rory McIlroy has 13 top 10's in 17 PGA Tour starts this year, and has had his most consistent season on tour. He's posted his best Strokes Gained numbers and stats overall while winning twice this year to make it 16 PGA Tour wins for his career. McIlroy is No. 1 in SG: Off the Tee, No. 11 in SG: Approach the Green. McIlroy is 1st in scoring and 2nd in both Birdie Average and Driving Distance.

Jon Rahm has three top 10's in his last four PGA Tour starts plus 11th at the U.S. Open. Rahm also won the Irish Open in July on the European Tour. Rahm is No. 2 in SG: Off the Tee, but will need to sharpen his SG: Approach stats and putt his best to earn his 4th PGA Tour victory.

I also believe birdie opportunities to win or challenge the leading contenders could come from Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott, Tony Finau and big longshot Emiliano Grillo.

No premium match-ups to whack with Big Bertha this week, and instead of laying a bigger price, we'll lay the 1.5 strokes option with Patrick Cantlay (-105) over Patrick Reed. 

Two other players with the same first name are also worth wagers in match-ups with Justin Thomas (+106) over Dustin Johnson and Justin Rose (-116) also over Dustin Johnson. 

Tiger Woods is not listed in any match-ups at BookMaker, as he's a risk to withdraw like he did last week following Thursday's opening round. But BookMaker has left Jason Day on board in one match-up, and he's a fade with a similar chance something could go wrong. His 72-hole match-up is against Hideki Matsuyama (-117), and Hideki is a solid top-10 SG: Approach the Green play and had a 6th place finish at similar style Memorial this year. 

Keep firing for the flag in your pursuit of the green, and see you next week at East Lake and the Tour Championship. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay