Identifying NFL Underdogs and Parlays for Profit
Throughout the NFL season, we'll post pro football plays and parlays with a focus on underdogs. Like our weekly college football parlay for profits underdog picks and plays, we'll take a similar approach in the NFL. However, with fewer games each week, finding four underdogs to join Fairway's Foursome is far more challenging. Still, we'll Chip-in our thoughts and analysis, and perhaps modify our course management along the way.
Week 1 was a 2-2 result with one outright underdog winner and a pair of ATS losses by 2 points or less. Yes some close contests and finishes both SU and ATS are quite common in the NFL Do your best throughout each week to anticipate line moves and bet the best numbers. With so many offshore options and leading online sportsbooks to choose from and compare, it should be reasonable to expect using due diligence in your search for the best numbers.
Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth consideration, as many of these barking 'Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.
Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio, and after watching big ‘Dogs of 7 or more points win outright in Week 1 with the Jets and Bucs pulling the upsets and the Bears ‘this close’ to winning after blowing a 20-0 lead, you can expect the unexpected in the NFL as you pursue profit with your point spread prognosis.
Get the best odds on NFL underdogs at Elite-Rated Bovada.lv
In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. We'll add in some bigger 'Dogs along the way, but note too you can evaluate these selected teams and consider using them in your straight wagers and parlays without money lines. It's very difficult to hit an underdog money line parlay. But we'll provide the potential payoffs with a small wager each week along with a straight parlay. Straight win wagers are a far more prudent play, but I know from experience that bettors like a bigger score with less risk and want to parlay their profits.
So join Fairway's Foursome and follow along as we fire for the flag and go for the green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway's Football Forecast.
Check out my weekly stats recap and analysis in my Inside the Numbers article.
This week's picks and plays – Shop lines at the leading online sports books.
273 Miami (+3, -120) at NY Jets – Dolphins Money Line +120
284 New England at Jacksonville (+1.5) – Jaguars Money Line +105
285 Oakland (+6.5) at Denver – Raiders Money Line +230
287 NY Giants (+3) at Dallas – Giants Money Line +140
$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $694
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220
$200 – Suggested side wagers with $40 Money Line based are suggestions for this sample. $1,000 in play each week.
Miami at New York Jets – The Jets looked good in a Monday night blowout road win at Detroit, 48-17. That after rookie QB Darnold threw a pick-6 on his first pro pass. Both these teams averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense last week with the Jets running the rock 36 times for 169 yards. The Jets easy victory was also aided by 5 Lions turnovers. The Dolphins won a weather-related marathon last week against the Titans as our outright ‘Dog winner on these pages. We swim with the fish again knowing too that Miami has covered just one of the last nine games in this series and had just one road win last season. That of course was without QB Tannehill, who missed the entire season and looked sharp in his debut last week. Close call.
New England at Jacksonville – Jaguars have been pointing to this game since allowing QB Brady and the Patriots to rally for a 24-20 victory in last year’s AFC Championship game. Better running game and defense as home ‘Dog puts us on Jacksonville, and expect RB Fournette to play (hamstring) after not practicing all week and missing more than half the game in last week’s 20-15 road win at New York Giants. New England allowed Houston to rush for 169 yards last week on 34 carries, and we expect the Jags to control the ball, clock and chains and keep Brady on the sidelines more this week. That’s if QB Bortles can at least make a few plays in the passing game. Check the weather with potential scattered showers in the afternoon, which would slow the Patriots passing game a bit. Jaguars can pressure Brady more without blitzing, and the secondary is superb to cover the Patriots weaker receiving core this season except for TE Gronk. More injuries including at running back pose more problems for the Patriots, who had 389 yards in victory last week but an average 5.4 yards per play. Yards and points much tougher this week in a lower-scoring Jaguars victory.
Oakland at Denver – Few want the Raiders this week after getting blown out in the 2nd half of a 33-13 opening week loss to the LA Rams. Oakland did average 6.2 yards per play in defeat against a stout LA defense, and QB Carr pass for 300 yards. But Denver was one of the most efficient teams on offense in Week 1, running for 146 and passing for 324 at 6.5 yards per play. New Broncos QB Keenum did toss 3 TD’s to offset his 3 INTS, and the Denver defense held Seattle to just 13 first downs in a 27-24 win. Situation favors the Broncos at home, where they have dominated opponents in the opening three weeks of the season with the altitude adjustment. But a huge adjustment has been made on this price, which had Denver just a 1-point favorite on the look-ahead line in Las Vegas prior to last week’s results. Over-reaction didn’t work for bettors in the Thursday night Baltimore at Cincinnati game following the Ravens opening week blowout win, and we swing lightly with the Silver and Black and coach Gruden against a Broncos team in bounce back mode following last year’s Denver debacle that we forecasted correctly. Take the 7 points on game day when it hits.
New York Giants at Dallas – I thought the Giants might get the victory last week, and missed the cover or push with a failed 2-point conversion and a costly pick-6 in a 20-15 defeat. Rookie running back Saquon Barkley had a big TD run and was especially strong after contact against a rugged Jaguars front seven. Dallas allowed 147 rushing yards on 34 Carolina carries last week, and Barkely will be the beneficiary of the Dallas deficiencies this week. So too will Odell Beckham Jr., who had a solid game in his return against an elite cornerback, and now runs routes against a weaker secondary. The Giants defense was solid last week, and should contain a Cowboys offense that was terrible in both the running game and QB Prescott’s performance of 3.9 yards per pass play without his two favorite targets from last season. The loss of All-Pro center Fredrick is a big blow, and I don’t see a Cowboys bounce back but rather more concerns with Dallas’ deficiencies.
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay