Week 10 NFL Underdog Betting Picks
A 2-0 'Dog log in Week 9 runs the season record on underdog picks to 14-5 ATS with 10 outright winners. Underdogs went 10-4 ATS in Week 9 and the top online sportsbooks got the puppy chow as favorite bettors and most the public gave back more money after bigger favorites cashed in the previous two weeks.
Traveling and some delays, but I've adding analysis to some Week 10 picks. But be sure to monitor the Week 10 injuries, and select injury reports like Pro Football Focus along with other NFL news and personnel reports. Check out the adjusting odds at your preferred online sportsbooks and also follow OSGA on Twitter.
Now with 200 NFL underdog plays documented here in our fifth season posting, the record stands at 116-84 (58.0%) ATS with 58 outright winners.
We're coming right back with the Browns and Vikings in Week 10. Check out my recent update and rushing stats, and how to use point of attack play to your advantage when handicapping NFL games and match-ups. Last week's outright underdog winner on Cleveland saw the Browns bury the Bengals and point of attack power rushing for 153 yards to 85 for the Bengals.
NFL Week 10 Underdog Picks
Cleveland (+2.5) at New England - Browns moneyline +120 at BookMaker
Minnesota (+3) at LA Chargers - Vikings moneyline +148 at BetOnline
Philadelphia (+3) at Denver - Eagles moneyline +125 at Bovada
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots
The Browns now lead the league in rushing with 160 yards per game and Cleveland is also top three in run defense allowing 85 yards per game. I fired an NFL futures bet on the Browns to win the AFC North at +500 prior to the Ravens getting upset by the Dolphins Thursday night in Miami - causing favorite bettors more misery. Both the Patriots and Browns are 5-4 and in the playoff chase, but Cleveland is a better bet to cash in as the season moves along. The Browns have the better running game, run defense and quarterback in this Week 10 match-up, and QB Baker Mayfield's foot will be fine and he'll play this week. Defensive end Myles Garrett should as well, and he leads the league with 12 sacks. Monitor the injuries and updates along with COVID protocols, which RB Nick Chubb is part of and may be sidelined this week. I recognize the Browns have struggled a bit against some stronger defenses like Pittsburgh, Arizona and even at Minnesota. The Patriots are another solid challenge on the road with New England among the league leaders in opponent's yards per point and the Patriots special teams play is superior to the Browns. The Patriots are allowing 340 yards per game and have one quality win over the Chargers while playing more than half their games against the league's worst teams. The Browns defense is tougher against stronger teams allowing 310 YPG. My rushing projections still call for another 30+ yard edge favoring the Browns, giving the bettor a strong chance to cash in on Cleveland, and add another underdog moneyline winner as well.
Minnesota Vikings at LA Chargers
The Vikings blew yet another game last week at Baltimore, but got the money honey. This game sets up as a shootout, and totals bettors may want to fire with the over/under at 53. Recall when the Chargers beat the Browns 47-42 on this field in Week 5 when both teams piled up nearly 500 yards offense. The Vikings run a similar zone-running scheme as the Browns, who rolled up 230 rushing yards that game against the Chargers current league-worst run defense. Dalvin Cook should have another big day running and receiving, despite the off-field distractions. But two quarterbacks having strong seasons make the passing projections very positive as well as Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert add to their stats and solid seasons. Herbert is passing for nearly 300 yards per game and a 18/6 TD-INT ratio while Cousins has 16 TD passes to 2 interceptions. He'll attack the Chargers weaker backup cornerback, as starting CB Michael Davis (hamstring) is out again with top, talented receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen able to take advantage. Those match-ups are notable, as is Vikings RT Brian O'Neill not allowing a sack this season and now up against Joey Bosa. Note too that Vikings starting CB Patrick Peterson, starting safety Harrison Smith and top edge rusher Danielle Hunter are also out, tapering our enthusiasm quite a bit on this pick. But there are still enough match-up edges and projections to favor the Vikings and we'll side with them and chip-in a stronger suggestion on Over the Total.
Philadelphia at Denver
This line is Broncos -2.5, but the Eagles are -105 at Bovada. Let's buy it to +3 at -120 for monitoring, but also play the moneyline, of course, with this competitively-priced underdog. The Broncos are hurting badly along the offensive line with up to four starters out this week. A big win over the Cowboys in Dallas is a big Mile High for the Broncos, but the Eagles can fly this week with a running game now led by RB Jordan Howard with QB Jalen Hurts providing plenty of run/pass options. The Eagles run the ball nearly 28 times per game, including averaging 39 rushes per game over their last three contests and last week 39 for 176 yards in defeat to the Chargers. Philadelphia is just 3-6 and winless at home. But the Eagles have taken flight on the road going 3-2 and the match-ups along the lines suggest some success this week. Philly has scored at least 21 points in 8-of-9 games this season, and that is likely enough to win this week against the banged-up Broncos, who have failed to score 20 points in four of their last six games.
Last week we included a bonus opinion on the Falcons (+6.5), who won outright at New Orleans. In an effort to chip-in added insight and information you can bet on, I'll try to add some of these opinions and leans. But with injuries and COVID-related factors impacting more players and games including QB Aaron Rodgers this week and the projected return of QB Russell Wilson in the Packers-Seahawks game in Green Bay, it's important to have the info available when making some final pre-flop bets and then tackling the live, in-play opportunities. Noted, as we're firing on two games this week on the Browns and Vikings with some player personnel and situations to monitor up to game time.
So do your best when betting, and follow along as we shoot for more birdies and winners on the gridiron. I'll continue to carry the bag and swing the club in hopes that you profit from my experience and proven scorecard of making more birdies than bogey's and getting the green.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay