NFL Week 9 Underdog Predictions and Picks

The Week 9 NFL schedule kicks off on Halloween with a Thursday Night Football feature Houston Texans (6-2) against the very disappointing New York Jets (2-6), who enter on a 5-game losing streak (and 0-5 ATS) and tied for last place in the worst division in football, AFC East but right there with the weak AFC South led by the Texans. 

We're off a huge NFL Week 8 card and went 5-3 ATS on our underdog picks with 3 outright winners. That's actually disappointing, as our early week Opinions and Considerations went 8-3 ATS. We added two other games to our Sunday picks, and both lost SU/ATS including the pitiful Carolina Panthers and bumbling Bro QB Bryce Young (2 INT's) back in a starting role. 

Incredibly, we're likely adding the Panthers again this week as a big home 'Dog against division rival New Orleans Saints, who should not be a 7+ point favorite on the road against any team no different than the Broncos were a double-digit favorite last week. Saints QB Derek Carr is expected to return and start for the first time since his Week 5 oblique injury. But the Saints have a laundry list of injuries and when was the last time you saw a teams like the Saints on a 0-6 SU (1-5 ATS) run and a road favorite, let alone -7? Um, never! The Saints have scored 13 or less points in four of those losses!

Yes, the Panthers are pathetic, but stop fkg turning the ball over bumbling Bryce and help your teammates and reward some bettors with a sports book bonus and payout! The Panthers are 1-7 SU/ATS this season with their only win over the ridiculous Raiders. The Saints pounded the Panthers in Week 1 by a final score of 47-10 and POS Bryce Young was 13-of-30 passing for 161 yards and 2 interceptions. The Panthers next four games are at home, and six of next seven, and the Saints are the best chance for a Panthers victory.

Now in our 8th straight year posting NFL underdog picks at OSGA, the record is 206-157 ATS, just under 57% ATS with 120 outright winners including 16-13 ATS this season with 10 outright underdog winners. Last season we had an 11-1 ATS run in December, and in 2021 post a 70% season (28-12 ATS), so shooting for more birdies and winners on the gridiron the second half of the 2024 season. 

Also, I posted two more player prop winners (2-0) in the Week 8 Monday Night Football report in Forbes, and have been crushing those weekly including Week 6 at OSGA when Jets RB Breece Hall more than doubled his receiving yards prop. Trying to add more MNF updates at Off Shore Gaming Association ahead with time constraints.   

NFL Week 9 Odds

Pro football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. 

Early Week 9 bet count

80% HOU +2 @ NYJ
63% NE +3 @ TEN
60% LAC -1 @ CLE
57% CAR +7 v NO
79% BUF -6 v MIA
60% ATL -2.5 v DAL
82% DEN +9.5 @ BAL
66% LV +7.5 @ CIN
70% MIN -5 v IND
63% WAS -3.5 @ NYG
52% AZ pk v CHI
82% LAR -1 @ SEA
69% DET -3.5 @ GB
59% PHI -7.5 v JAX
76% TB +9.5…

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 29, 2024

The popular favorites are taking far less money and bets following last week's upsets, including the Browns (+8.5) over the Ravens outright along with the Rams (+3) beating the Vikings to kickoff NFL action last Thursday. Now two of the popular underdog picks and bets are the Houston Texans (+2) Thursday night on the road in East Rutherford, NJ against the New York Jets, and the Denver Broncos (+9.5) at Baltimore Ravens Sunday. Even the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) are taking 3 out of every 4 spread bets on the road against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (7-0).

Opinions and Considerations for Week 9 now as we evaluate the injury reports for all teams and note the changing spreads, odds and adjustments while also monitoring the NFL weather with more potential rain at many NFL locations this week. Another QB change as well with the Indianapolis Colts benching bumbling Anthony Richardson, whose passing completion percentage is awful (44%) and he continues to fumble and get hurt on running plays. Savvy 39-year-old QB Joe Flacco will start for the Colts, who are taking some betting action with the line down from Vikings -6 to -5.5, but I'm still not on the Colts side for now. 

Nor will on be on big 'Dog Denver, as the Broncos have played one of the weakest schedules and catching breaks with opposing quarterbacks while their own rookie QB Bo Nix has played well. But the Broncos travel to Baltimore, and the Ravens rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards per play (ypp) margin at +1.3. They rank No. 2 in DVOA and have played a much tougher schedule than the Broncos while also leading the league in rushing (200 ypg) by margin, and 3rd in rushing attempts (32.5) per game. 

Also, ahead of Week 9 NFL action, be sure to check out my weekly college football Top 25 report and picks, which will be a bit delayed as I'm traveling and will be at the 41st Breeders' Cup World Championships horse racing event Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar just North of San Diego.

Week 9 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

Cleveland (+2) vs. LA Chargers - Browns Moneyline +105
Carolina (+7) vs. New Orleans - Panthers Moneyline +285
Las Vegas (+7 / 7.5) at Cincinnati - Raiders Moneyline +270
New York (+4) vs. Washington - Giants Moneyline +180
Tampa Bay (+9) at Kansas City - Buccaneers Moneyline (MNF) +340

Note the Cardinals vs. Bears line has been fluctuating from -1 to pk to +1, so we'll evaluate more and monitor befor posting any potential underdog pick. Evaluating more and could add other teams as underdog picks, which we did last week but lost. 

I'm passing on the Texans (+2) on Thursday, and believe they will get beat by New York with the Jets ending their 0-5 SU/ATS run. May consider the Jets if the line dips as we periodically add home favorites less than 2 points who are priced like 'Dogs at home when factoring home field.

BTW, our rushing game projections in last week's underdog picks and Week 8 report was mostly spot on. If you bet on those projected rushing game winners, you went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS. I'll add more for Week 9 by Friday, but note that the Panthers (154/game) and Saints (143) are among the very worst teams in rushing defense this season with the Saints allows 5.2 yards per rush (#31 in NFL) and Panthers 4.5 ypr. 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks

New York (+4) vs. Washington - Giants Moneyline +180
Carolina (+7.5) vs. New Orleans - Panthers Moneyline +270

Sunday update: Adding the pathetic Panthers as home division 'Dog. So many injuries, including 15 Saints players. Some notable injuries for the Panthers too including OT and Safety. Derek Carr returns as Saints quarterback, and yes, we're giving the Panthers another shot despite awful QB Bryce Young, who doesn't belong in any starting lineup. But the Saints (2-6) have lost 6-straight games (1-5 ATS) and failed to score more than 13 points in four of those contests. Laying more than a TD on the division road? Come on now, Panthers historically bad, but play the Panthers, even for a peanut if you watch and wager. 

The Falcons, Ravens, Eagles and Rams project to have the strongest rushing edges this week. 

BetOnline, BookMaker and select other top online sportsbooks have the Giants (+4) on Wednesday while some other other online sportsbooks show +3.5. We're on the G-men despite a short week of a MNF defeat while the first place Commanders come off the miraculous Hail Mary TD win over the Bears causing fans, bettors, coaches and players to go bonkers. Monitor the betting lines and check back Friday and into the weekend for more picks, analysis, ATS and information you can bet on. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.