NFL Week 5 Predictions and Underdog Picks 

The NFL Week 5 schedule has 6 division games including the Thursday night Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2) NFC South showdown. I teased the Buccaneers, but will lean Tampa's way only with the spread dropping and now favoring the Falcons by just -1.5 points. More Week 5 matchups, odds, picks and considerations for our weekly NFL underdog picks, which are now 10-3 ATS with all winning weeks. 

- Week 1 - (3-1)
- Week 2 - (4-1-1)
- Week 3 (2-1)
- Week 4 (1-0)

We chip-in bonus picks as well from totals (2-0 Week 2) to favorites providing additional cash payouts, like the Week 4 Monday Night Football winner on the Detroit Lions plus added player props picks and winners.

October kicks off with Week 5 along with bye weeks as the Lions and Eagles in the NFC are off along with the Chargers and Titans in the AFC. Check out the bye weeks schedule as well for rest advantages and disadvantages knowing too that Week 6 bye week teams include the Vikings, Rams, Dolphins and Chiefs with Minnesota playing the Jets in London this Sunday, Oct. 6.

Fairways Football Forecast continues to shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron having hit better than 57.5% ATS (200-147) the past 7+ years posting pro football underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association with 116 outright winners. Our complimentary plays and winners are provided in hopes you learn while you earn and profit from the experience. 

Early NFL WK5 tickets

59% TB +1 @ ATL
77% MIN -2.5 v NYJ
53% CAR +4 @ CHI
66% BAL -2.5 @ CIN
71% BUF -1 @ HOU
52% IND +3 @ JAX
61% NE -1 v MIA
64% WAS -3 v CLE
68% LV +2.5 @ DEN
54% AZ +7 @ SF
58% GB -3 @ LAR
69% SEA -6 v NYG
51% PIT -2.5 v DAL
69% NO +5.5 @ KC

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 2, 2024

NFL Week 5 Odds And Betting Data

More line moves last week and again this week with some games moving off and on to key numbers. The Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets game Sunday in London has seen the favorite flip from last week's lookahead line. The undefeated Vikings (-2.5) are now favored after a big 31-29 road win over Green Bay. Bettors are less confident in the Jets and their offense following a 10-9 home loss to the Denver Broncos and New York has now failed to generate 300+ yards offense in 3-of-4 games.

The Browns and Commanders line has also flipped to Washington as favorite above a field goal and some sportsbooks settling at -3. The Washington Commanders (3-1) have been a big surprise leading the NFC East with their Rookie-of-the-Year leading QB Jayden Daniels and explosive offense while the Cleveland Browns (1-3) and their bumbling Bro QB ding dong Deshaun Watson continue to underachieve.  

Bet on the NFL at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Week 5 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

While we had just 1 NFL underdog pick in Week 4, early week opinions and considerations went 4-1 ATS if you monitored the betting lines and bet the best numbers, like Chargers (+8.5), who closed +7 in a 7-point defeat to the Chiefs. The Saints (+2.5) also got the money going from +1.5 to +2.5 in a 2-point last-second loss to the Falcons on a 58-yard made field goal. Ouch for Saints, who play at Kansas City Monday Night and are a consideration with line up from KC -5 to -5.5. We'll see if it hits 6 and monitor injury reports and more ahead of games. 

Update: Tons of injuries ahead of the Cowboys-Steelers Sunday Night Football game with Dallas' defense not so dominant and now missing MVP Micah Parsons (ankle). Cowboys were definitely in Fairway's Forecast, but now sidelined with so many key injuries. Steelers have some too, and if you want to read more in black and white from the disgraced coach Jon Gruden, then a full breakdown of DAL-PIT is on his new Gruden Loves Football YouTube channel.  

Houston (+1) vs. Buffalo - Texans Moneyline +105 at BetOnline
New England (Pk/-1) vs. Miami - Patriots Moneyline -105 (Pk at BookMaker)
Cleveland (+3.5) at Washington - Browns Moneyline +150
Las Vegas (+3) at Denver - Raiders Moneyline +135
Los Angeles (+3) vs. Green Bay - Rams Moneyline +140
New York (+6.5) at Seattle - Giants Moneyline +235
Dallas (+2.5) at Pittsburgh - Cowboys Moneyline +120
New Orleans (+5.5) at Kansas City - Saints Moneyline +205

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks

New England (Pk/-1) vs. Miami - Patriots Moneyline -105 (Pk at BookMaker)
Cleveland (+3.5) at Washington - Browns Moneyline +150
Las Vegas (+3) at Denver - Raiders Moneyline +130

The Browns are +3 at many online sportsbooks, and +3.5 (-115) at other top online sportsbooks. The Patriots are a play even at -1 (priced like 'Dog at home), but still available at PK 'em at select top online sportsbooks like Bookmaker. The Giants are now +6.5 across the board with steam on Seattle, and Giants star rookie WR Malik Nabors (concussion) is likely out. 

Check Friday and into weekend for additional underdog picks, analysis, stats, ATS notes and information you can bet on.

Week 5 rushing edges & notable projections:
- Vikings over Jets
- Ravens over Bengals
- Bears over Panthers
- Patriots over Dolphins
- 49ers over Cardinals
- Steelers over Cowboys

Teams averaging at least 30 rushing attempts per game (this number will drop)
- Ravens (34.5)
- Steelers (34.5)
- Saints (34.5)
- Commanders (33.5)
- Packers (32.5)
- Lions (32.3)
- 49ers (32.3)
- Eagles (30.0)

Note that teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are a 75% ATS winning situation, as I've tracked the boxscore data and other stats for more than 2 decades and updated in current NFL rushing stats article. This season those teams with that 30 yards rushing edge in a game are 41-10 SU and 40-9-2 ATS. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent does not) are 32-6 SU and 30-7-1 ATS while teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game are 5-33 SU and 6-32 ATS. 

Point of attack play often rules the day. So be sure to check the Week 5 injury reports as well as you watch, wager and win in your pursuit of profit. Check back ahead of Sunday games and also MNF as we chip-in more Monday Night Football picks and props following last week's winners.  

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.