NFL Week 3 Predictions and Underdog Picks

The NFL Week 3 schedule includes just two division games including the Thursday night New England Patriots at New York Jets contest. It follows a week of eight outright underdog winners. Key games on the Week 3 schedule also include an interconference clash between two preseason favorites that both lost last week. The Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys is nearly a pick 'em at the leading online sportsbooks and will be one of the most watched and wagered games on Sunday. A Monday Night Football doubleheader will complete the action with bettors hoping for more scoring after last week's games averaged just 39.6 points per contest.

Week 2 Recap and Stats

As I outlined in the Week 2 underdog picks, I anticipated a big week for 'Dogs and they delivered as we went 4-1-1 ATS with three outright winners. The Cardinals closed pick 'em in their blowout loss over the Rams and both the Vikings and Buccaneers won outright for us as +4' or greater 'Dogs over two preseason NFC favorties in the 49ers and Lions. The Bengals (+6) also won for us, and had the outright win late until a 4th and 16 pass interference call set up the Chiefs for the game-winning field goal in a 26-25 Kansas City win. 

Fairway's followers who bet our other early week Opinions and Considerations before finalizing the card went 4-1 ATS on those picks as well with 3 more outright winners including the Las Vegas Raiders comeback to steal a 26-23 win at Baltimore despite the Raiders getting outrushed 151-27 and outgained 383-260. The rushing projections before the game kept us off the Raiders, and it played out as handicapped. Yet the Raiders covered despite ATS situations greater than 75% against them. In addition, Fairways Football Forecast chipped-in a 2-0 totals report (NYJ-TEN, CHI-HOU) as provided in the NFL Week 2 underdog picks providing additional payouts and profit for those looking for additional value and picks from a proven pro. 

Our 7-2 ATS start to the season on our weekly NFL underdog picks includes four outright winners. Now in our 8th year posting at OSGA, the record on NFL underdog picks is 197-146 ATS (57.4%) with 114 outright winners continuing our top of the leaderboard results that included 8 straight winning seasons more than 15 years ago as a proven, profitable point spread prognosticator.  

NFL Week 3 Odds And Betting Data

The NFL Week 3 schedule includes 7 games that are lined at less than 3 points on the spread. 

Early NFL Week 3 Bet Count

60% NE +6.5 @ NYJ
60% LAC +1 @ PIT
63% IND -1 v CHI
59% HOU -1 @ MIN
50% CLE -6.5 v NYG
77% NO -2.5 v PHI
74% TB -7 v DEN
53% GB +3 @ TEN
72% LV -5 v CAR
54% MIA +4.5 @ SEA
60% AZ +3 v DET
55% BAL -1 @ DAL
53% LAR +7.5 v SF
65% KC -3.5 @ ATL
65% BUF…

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) September 17, 2024

Week 3 Underdog Picks, Opinions and Considerations

Chicago (+1.5) at Indianapolis - Bears Moneyline +105
Minnesota (+2.5) vs. Houston - Vikings Moneyline +115
Philadelphia (+2.5) at New Orleans - Eagles Moneyline +125
Los Angeles (+1.5) at Pittsburgh - Chargers Moneyline +105
Arizona (+3) vs. Detroit - Cardinals +125
Dallas (+1) vs. Baltimore - Cowboys Moneyline +100
Atlanta (+3.5) vs. Kansas City - Falcons Moneyline +155

I likely won't be as excited about any card like last week's games, which I projected many underdogs to bite and fired outright winners. So while I've listed many plays in consideration above, a better approach to betting some of these short underdogs is to add select teams to a teaser bet. Off Shore Gaming Association provides top teaser sportsbooks based on players and bettors feedback, tips and independent research. Move the line 6 points or more, and we did so last week with added teasers, and also hit a Super Teaser with ease moving the betting line 10 points. 

ATS notes: The Lions are on an 8-0 SU/ATS run off a loss with those wins coming by an avg of 13 pts. I make the Eagles-Saints game closer to pick 'em but Eagles off a bad loss (coaches WTF) Monday night and traveling on a short week against surprising and surging Saints with a rest advantage. The Falcons were taking +4.5 on Tuesday, and we'll evaluate more before firing but Atlanta is our only side to consider with the Chiefs fortunate to win both games so far while being out-gained in each contest. The Bears and rookie QB on the road has us hesitating, as QB Williams has been unable to move the Bears offense through two games but played better last week in defeat at Houston despite just 205 total yards offense for Chicago, which followed just 148 yards offense in Week 1. Our only Week 2 loser was on Denver and a rookie QB who through an INT on first down in the red zone that proved very costly in a 13-6 defeat. Bettors beware of rookie QB's in early weeks until showing more signs of strength. BTW, you did see completely clueless QB Bryce Young was benched and Andy Dalton starts for the Panthers this week at Las Vegas for the Raiders home opener, right? Young, last year's No. 1 overall pick that the idiot owner traded up to get while mortgaging the future with draft picks and letting players like WR DJ Moore go to Chicago, is yet another disbelieving blunder by these NFL Executives who keep trading or picking these bumbling Bros at QB like the Broncos and Browns did that continues to prove costly as incompetent decisions. 

NFL Week 3 injury reports 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 3 Underdog Picks

Los Angeles (+1.5) at Pittsburgh - Chargers Moneyline +105
Minnesota (+2.5) vs. Houston - Vikings Moneyline +115
Philadelphia (+3) at New Orleans - Eagles Moneyline +130

The Vikings were +3.5 and even +4 last week on the lookahead line and offered for early bettors which I also noted and suggested betting last week. See if +3 pops, and it will if WR Justin Jefferson (quad) doesn't play. But clearly Vikings are another bet and moneyline to add to your wagers, which I did last week both ATS and ML last week vs. the 49ers in a Minnesota right side winner, 23-17. See Week 2 CHI at HOU game analysis, BTW, next week's Week 3 lookahead line of Houston -3.5 AT Minnesota is an even greater mispricing making the Vikings an advance bet. 

The Chargers and Steelers are both 2-0 with the winner moving to a surprising 3-0 with Pittsburgh winning both their games on the road. The Steelers also lead the league in rushing attempts per game (38.5) through two games, and the Chargers are also among the leaders at 35 rushing attempts per game. Los Angeles is No. 2 in the NFL in rushing at 197 yards per game with Justin Herbert a top-tier premier passer in a coach Harbaugh run-heavy scheme so far while the Steelers and their dumbo duel threat QB Justin Fields averages 139 rushing YPG with Fields contributing 42 rushing YPG but poor passing at 136 YPG. Surprisingly, no INT's yet but as expected, Fields has fumbled twice but been fortunate the Steelers recovered both. Oh, and Fields has led the Steelers offense to ONE (1) touchdown in two games. Add in that the Chargers revamped defense has allowed a total of 13 points so far through two games, and we have ourselves a bet on the better team as 'Dog with Harbaugh and Herbert against Tomlin and Fields only adding to our belief and support of additional teasers bets including the Chargers. One of these teams will make the playoffs and the other will not, thus we're counting on a Chargers victory.

Note: Chargers QB Justin Herbert suffered an ankle injury in last week's game, and x-rays were negative. He'll practice later this week, but if he's ruled out and doesn't start, this does not become a play until we evaluate any potential line change and backup quarterback status. Update late Friday, Herbert did not practice and looks like he'll be a game-time decision. Check back Sunday for status and if we include as underdog pick, knowing too we'll get plenty more points with backup QB Easton Stick and won't rule out a play on the Chargers. 

Update: Adding the Eagles, as +3 and +3 (-120) is popping at some leading online sportsbooks on Saturday, including at BetUS. The Week 3 lookahead line on this contest was Eagles -3.5, and now we've seen the biggest swing of the season without an injured QB as Philly is now a +3 underdog. The Eagles have rushed the ball for 144 yards and 186 yards (37 carries) in two games. Last week they lost to the Falcons 22-21 in the closing seconds of Monday Night Football after Philly's coaches messed up some late game decisions and the Eagles had a 95% probability of winning with 2 minutes remaining. Read my Eagles-Saints game preview in Forbes with analysis and stats for more insight and information you can bet on. Let's take the value on #FlyEaglesFly and sell high on the Saints.

Speaking of teasers, I'll be adding the Cincinnati Bengals to my teaser card with the Bengals a -7.5 point favorite on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati fits some other matchups strengths and solid angles as a winless team, and I'll update more on that later. The Browns are a favorite to tease as well with edges at the point of attack and rushing, noted below. 

Check back Friday following injury reports and into weeked as we consider additional picks and add more game analysis and stats. Last week we added the Bears (+6) Saturday and the game pushed in a 19-13 Texans win. Perhaps our only mistake of the week, as the Bears were available at +6.5 on Friday, showing the importance of 1/2 to 1 point in NFL betting and having more top online sportsbooks to choose from when wagering. 

Week 3 rushing edges & notable projections:
- Browns over Giants
- 49ers over Rams 

Note that teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are a 75% ATS winning situation, as I've tracked the boxscore data and other stats for more than 2 decades. This season those teams with that rushing edge in a game are 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent doesnt) are 16-4 SU and 13-6-1 ATS while teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game are 4-17 SU and 6-15 ATS. The 30+ rushes in a game stats will improve ATS as those teams have covered 82% and 79% ATS the past two seasons. 

More updates ahead with information you can bet on.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.