Fairway's Football Forecast 2024 NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks

Week 12 NFL underdog predictions and picks

The NFL Week 12 schedule features seven division games and kicks off Thursday with the AFC North battle between the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) and last place Cleveland Browns (2-8). Two teams heading in opposite directions, which like the Browns, is the case for five other AFC teams teams with 3 wins or less this season and three others in the NFC. Of course, many of those teams are underdogs, which makes it a bit more difficult to support some of those teams on our weekly NFL underdog picks. Especially when we had an O-fer in Week 11 including some of those ugly 'Dogs.

NFL home underdogs continue to struggle, and this week there are 9 home 'Dogs and the lookahead lines for Week 13 show eight more home 'Dogs. Also, there are no first place battles or marquee matchups in Week 12, other than the San Francisco 49ers (5-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-3) with the Packers (-2.5) favored after the 49ers were a 1-point favorite on the lookahead lines. The 49ers road to the playoffs as the preseason NFC favorite are now riding on a division title as a Wild Card is far less likely and especially if they lose to the Packers this Sunday.

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Unfortunately, looking ahead to Thanksgiving and the trifecta of NFL games Thanksgiving Day, fans will have to hope they don't toss their turkey while watching the New York Giants (2-8) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-7), who are are 0-5 on their home field at AT&T Stadium this season with four losses by more than four touchdowns.

Quarterbacks Tommy DeVito of the Giants and Cooper Rush of the Cowboys. I don't bet that's what the NFL or teams had in mind when the season started. Or the Dallas Cowboys being the most underperforming team to date based on season win totals, as Dallas had a Over/Under season win total of 10.5 wins. 

The Steelers are 1-win from surpassing their season win total of 8.5, which I too didn't think they would reach. The Cleveland Browns had the same win total of 8.5, and the Browns season is as bad as the NFL weather forecast in Cleveland Thursday night. 

NFL Week 12 Odds

Pro football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Early NFL Week 12 tickets

85% PIT -3.5 @ CLE
80% DET -7.5 @ IND
63% KC -11 @ CAR
69% MIN -3 @ CHI
67% WAS -10 v DALOL
77% TB -5 @ NYG
55% MIA -7 v NE
58% TEN +9 @ HOU
92% DEN -5.5 @ LV
57% AZ pk @ SEA
57% SF +2.5 @ GB
77% PHI -3 @ LAR
58% BAL -3 @ LAC

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) November 19, 2024

Opinions and Considerations for Week 12 below as we evaluate the injury reports for all teams and note the changing spreads, odds and adjustments while also monitoring the NFL weather with more potential rain at many NFL stadiums. 

Following our Week 11 'Dog sh*t, Fairway's Forecast is now 20-19 ATS this season with 12 outright winners. We've fallen below 57% combined (210-165 ATS) over now our 8th year posting NFL underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association. That includes a 70% season (28-12 ATS) in 2021 and last year a 11-1 ATS run in December with 9 outright winners. 

Note teams playing Week 12 off a bye week with extra rest advantage and prep include the Buccaneers, Cardinals, Giants, Panthers. Teams on a bye and not playing this week include the Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Saints. There is no bye for any teams in Week 13, and Week 14 is the last bye week with the Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, Texans having the week off before five of those teams make their push for the playoffs. 

Week 12 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

Indianapolis (+7.5) vs. Detroit - Colts Moneyline +285
Chicago (+3.5) vs. Minnesota - Bears Moneyline +155
New England (+7.5) at Miami - Patriots Moneyline +300
New York (+6) vs. Tampa Bay - Giants Moneyline +220
Tennessee (+8.5) at Houston - Titans Moneyline +320
Las Vegas (+5.5) vs. Denver - Raiders Moneyline +205
Seattle (+1) vs. Arizona - Seahawks Moneyline -105
Los Angeles (+2.5) vs. Philadelphia - Rams Moneyline +130
Los Angeles (+2.5) vs. Baltimore - Chargers Moneyline +130 

The Buccaneers, Broncos and Packers as favorites had the biggest moves (2.5 to 3.5 points) from the Week 12 lookahead lines. Only one team from above (Chargers) has a winning record, which will be difficult for many bettors on our considerations for NFL underdog picks.

I'll pass on the Browns (+3.5) Thursday night at home vs. the Steelers, who hold the rushing edge and projected 30+ yards rushing margin (75% ATS winner historically). The home team is 5-1 SU/ATS since 2021 in this series with many of those losing Browns teams. The Steeler's defense is holding teams to 30 yards per game under their season average (#8 NFL) and allow just 91 rush ypg (4.1). The Browns defense allowed 214 rushing yards (7.6 ypr) in last week's loss to the Saints. Cleveland's offense is getting held to 62 yards per game under what their opponent's allow (#30 NFL). 

Can only imagine the groans if we pick or bet the Browns with the Steelers, one of the most bet teams in Week 12, and BetOnline reporting 85% of the spread bets on the Steelers. Of course, watching bumbling Bro QB Jameis Winston make more mistakes and miscues in a double-digit loss to the Steelers would only add to the underperforming home underdogs this season. Note, the Browns had more than 440 yards offense, zero turnovers, and manageed to score just 14 points in last week's loss to the Saints. How is that possible, other than 2 missed field goals inside 33 yards, on the same drive, and a tie game into the 4th quarter before losing by 3 TD's! 

Negative Stats: The Raiders (-15) and Titans (-11) currently have the worst turnover differential in the NFL this season. The Steelers (+11), Bears (+9) with a losing record, Texans (+8), Chargers (+8) and Lions (+7) have the best turnover margin. 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks

Tennessee (+8) at Houston - Titans Moneyline +310
Las Vegas (+6) vs. Denver - Raiders Moneyline +201
Seattle (+1 / Pk) vs. Arizona - Seahawks Moneyline -110
Los Angeles (+3) vs. Philadelphia - Rams Moneyline +130

Still a sprinkle of +8.5 available on Titans, and +1 on Seahawks with +9 (-125) showing on Titans at BetOnline and Pk 'em on Seahawks.

Updated Sat. and more considerations for Picks Sunday with NFL handicapping, ATS and betting tools you can use as you move through the season and profit from the experience. 

Sunday update includes a pick on the LA Rams, who are now +3 taking a field goal and part of my NFL Week 12 feature game with more advanced stats in Forbes. Monday Night Football feature of the Harbaugh brothers coaching and more consideration of the Chargers as 'Dog as we see if any +3's pop as well. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.