Fairway’s Football Forecast: 2023 NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks, Insight And NFL News



Week 9 NFL underdog picks and insights from FairwayJay, with information you can bet on. Insights and free NFL underdog betting report.

Sports Betting news and underdog picks for NFL Week 9 

The Week 9 schedule has just one division game plus a game in Germany at Frankfurt Stadium between AFC division leaders Kansas City (6-2) and Miami (6-2). The Chiefs stumbled badly last week in a 24-9 loss to dysfunctional Denver, and now all four AFC division leaders are 6-2 with Baltimore and Jacksonville completing the quartet. I've included some games and teams below for potential Week 9 underdog picks and will add the picks, analysis and more information you can bet on Friday and through the weekend as I'm traveling and covering the 2023 Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. 

No, I don't advise betting the horses for serious interest or money with the huge takeout, but plenty of horseplayers and handicappers would argue and disagree. As they shoot for the trifecta and superfecta big payouts and scores equivalent to trying to hit a 6-8 team football parlay - while also trying to beat some of the cheating trainers that drug horses. Sure, they are trying to clean up the Sport of Kings, but it has not been a good year for horse racing safety

It's not been a good year for NFL home teams either going 64-55 SU and a little worst against the spread at about 52% ATS. Week 8 featured nine home underdogs, and those home 'Dogs went 3-6 SU and 4-3-2 ATS. We had the biggest ugly underdog winner on Carolina (+3) in their ugly 15-13 win over Houston for the Panthers first win of the season. Neither team gained 230 or more yards offense.

NFL week 9 underdogsThat wasn't even the ugliest game, as the Jets and Giants set the NFL back further with just 12 first downs apiece in the Jets 13-10 OT win. Terrible penalties and bonehead plays, incompetent quarterbacks and play-calling and many injuries in the rain at MetLife Stadium with Giants third-string rookie QB Tommy DeVito just 2-of-7 passing for minus (-1) yards. Giants coach Brian Daboll kept him under wraps while trying to grind the game away on the ground. The Giants outrushed the Jets 203-58 with an NFL season high 52 rushing attempts. Those rushing numbers historically get the money and win a little better than 75% of the time. But more mistakes, miscues, penalties, bad decisions (go for it) and a missed field goal all turned the tables in the ugliest NFL game of the year and many years. 

A few other winners mentioned in our early underdog considerations and opinions including the Broncos. But unfortunately also had to pass on the Vikings and Saints, both winners, after I bet and teased them early week as 'Dogs but they moved to slight favorites Wednesday. Hopefully you still cashed in with those Week 8 tips and bets and Saints/Colts total, or props and live betting after the Saints fell behind 17-7 before tearing apart the Colts decimated secondary for a week-high 511 yards in a 38-27 win. 

No less than 10 backup or rookie quarterbacks played last week, and add another to the list this week with Vikings rookie QB Jaren Hall set to start after Kirk Cousins was lost for the season (torn Achilles) last week in the win over Green Bay. The Vikings will also face yet another change at quarterback in Week 9 as the Falcons start former Vikings QB Taylor Heinicke, a more competent QB than Desmond Ridder. The Vikings (4-4) have won three games in a row and have a favorable schedule the next five games to still hit the 'over' in their season win totals and futures market. The Vikings play at Atlanta, New Orleans, at Denver, Chicago and at Las Vegas - the most favorable schedule of any team. But now they'll have to move forward with Hall until Nick Mullens (back) potentially returns from the IR in time for the Saints game on Nov. 12. The Vikings also traded for Cardinals QB Josh Dobbs (hu?), so watch and wager carefully and with interest as more teams try to figure out their quarterback and injury issues.  

Raiders Fire Head Coach Josh McDaniels 

That includes the Las Vegas Raiders quarterback issues and less productive play on offense. But ahead of Week 9, futures bets are being cashed on first NFL coach to be fired. Raiders owner Mark Davis decided it's more than the quarterbacks that's an issue. Las Vegas Raiders fire head coach josh danielsThe Raiders fired head coach Josh McDaniels on Halloween, one night after another putrid offensive performance (157 yards) on Monday Night Football in a 26-14 loss at Detroit and the Raiders eighth straight game this season failing to score at least 20 points on offense.

I add more on the Raiders fire coach situation in my coverage in Forbes while noting the continued coaching carousel within the organization. Interium head coach Antonio Pierce (LB coach) will be the Raiders 8th head coach since Mark Davis took over as owner in 2011. Please don't consider him the long term solution as head coach. This Raiders team and organization has done little right the past decade including since moving to Las Vegas in 2020. That includes all six draft picks from 2020 no longer with the team including a pair of first round picks. 

On to the Week 9 Underdog Picks, and noting 10 games feature spreads within a field goal (WASH/NE -3/3.5). That includes the Raiders, down from -3.5 to -1.5 after firing coach. Five games have totals under 40, and scoring is averaging 43.4 points per game this season. The largest point spread is Cleveland (-8) vs. Arizona followed by New Orleans (-7) vs Chicago. 

NFL Week 9 Underdog Opinions and Considerations 

We'll handicap and research more into Friday before posting our final underdog picks and adding any additions over the weekend. 

- Miami (+1.5 / 2) vs Kansas City (Germany)
- Minnesota (+5) at Atlanta
- Los Angeles (+3.5) at Green Bay (QB Stafford ?)
- Carolina (+2.5 / 3) vs. Indianapolis
- Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia
- Buffalo (+2 / 2.5) at Cincinnati

 NFL Week 9 injury reports  

Rushing to the Window

NFL teams that outrush their opponent in a game by 30 or more yards are both winning SU and covering ATS at 75% - right at the historical average from my proprietary data base as I load boxscore data into spread sheets following each week's games. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent does not), are hitting at > 83% ATS this season. 

Teams averaging at least 130 rushing yards per game this season include: MIA (152), CLE (148), BAL, AZ, SF, CHI (133), PHI, DET (131). 

Teams averaging at least 30 rushing attempts per game include: CLE (34), BAL, PHI, DET, SF, NYG, ATL, DAL

Teams averaging less than 23 rushing attempts per game include: WASH (20), MIN, CIN, NYJ, LV (22.5). Team that run the ball less than 23 times in a game are covering the spread just 22% this season, and win the game SU just 14% of the time  

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks 

Miami (+2) vs Kansas City - Dolphins Moneyline +110
Carolina (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis - Panthers Moneyline +120
Dallas (+3) at Philadelphia - Cowboys Moneyline +140
Buffalo (+2) at Cincinnati - Bills Moneyline +110

Miami vs. Kansas City -  One the biggest games of this year’s regular season and all-time in the International Series kicks off at 6:30 a.m. ET when the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) face the Miami Dolphins (6-2) in Frankfurt, Germany. Dolphins chiefs pickThe Dolphins traveled early in the week to their advantage, and the Chiefs travel from altitude in Denver to Kansas City to Frankfurt following a sloppy performance by QB Patrick Mahomes & the Chiefs in a 24-9 loss at Denver. The two division leaders and current favorites to win the AFC. Miami leads the league in scoring at 33.9 points per game - a full 10 PPG more than the Chiefs. The Dolphins have averaged 30 PPG over their last four contests taking out the 700 yards and 70 point blowout win over Denver. Miami's 453 YPG and 7.3 yards per play is by far the league's best, and my projections also have them outrushing the Chiefs by a positive margin as Miami could get two starters back into the fold on Sunday in C Connor Williams and LT Terron Armstead, and the Dolphins are leading the NFL averaging 0.04 EPA/rush and they will lean on the ground game with the Chiefs run defense allowing a 42% success rate (27th). The Dolphins rapidly improving secondary with CB Jalen Ramsey's return last week can slow QB Patrick Mahomes off his season-low 5.2 yards per play passing performance last week. Situation and travel favors the Dophins, and the fish get a big breakthrough win to add to their 6-2 ATS log this season.

Indianapolis at Carolina - The Panthers (1-6) cashed our only pick in Week 8 as home 'Dog, and we'll come right back with the league's worst team here in the improve. The Colts (3-5) are a play against team with more injuries and a decimated secondary we note and was exposed last week vs. the Saints. Over the game totals should continue to be in play in Colts games as Indy has allowed 38, 39 and 37 points their last three games. The Colts are one of the least-talented teams in the league, and as a road favorite must be played against with backup QB Gardner Minshew not playing as well with less supporting cast resulting in more sacks and turnovers. The Panthers offense with rookie QB Bryce Young is averaging just 4.3 yards per play, but will find more success this week off a confidence-building win against a Colts defense allowing 371 yards per game. 

Dallas at Philadelphia - A huge game in the NFC between division rivals and NFC favorites. The Eagles (7-1) top the division and faced the NFC's No. 1 defense in Dallas (5-2) - allowing 287 yards per game. The Cowboys two losses were ugly at Arizona and San Francisco, yet Dallas still has a scoring margin 25 points higher than Philadelphia’s on the season. Cowboys Eagles free pickOff their dominating 43-20 win over the Rams last week off a bye, Dallas looks primed to continue their strong run in division games against an Eagles team with banged up dominant rookie DT Jalen Carter (back) facing the league's best pass blocking efficiency guard Tyler Smith. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (knee, bone bruise) is running less, 27 yards last two weeks, and coming off a hard-hitting and hard-fought 38-31 win over division rival Washington. Philadelphia’s offensive line has surrendered a league-high 49 pressures in the last three weeks, and that's bad news against Micah Parson's and the Dallas defense. Add in Cowboys QB Dak Prescott airing it out more last week and a big game expected again from WR Cee Dee Lamb against the Eagles rotating secondary, and Dallas looks the the side to support this week - even with Dallas  just 19-29 ATS against teams with a winning record since 2016 with Dak at quarterback. 

Buffalo at Cincinnati - Neither of these preseason AFC contenders have played up to expectations yet this season. The Bills (5-3) have a little extra prep off a Thursday night win over Tampa Bay in Week 8. The Bengals (4-3) come off a big road win at San Francisco that the public and media is eating up. But Cincinnati was still outgained by 1.5 yards per play against the 49ers, and benefited from well-time turnovers. Joe Burrow is healthier and is back leading a talented offense that has averaged 331 yards per game their last three games.Bills Bengals free pick Recall late last season the Bills were short favorites on the road at Cincinnati and without a pair of key defenders, and now they are a 'Dog. Buffalo's defense is not playing as well, but Cincinnati's is even worst since late last season or from the Bengals upset of the Bills in Buffalo in the playoffs. That game sets the tone for the Bills in this rematch, as does are projected rushing guidelines solidly favoring the Bills and pointing to a SU and ATS win. The Bills are leading the NFL with a 46.5% rush success rate, and they will move the ball on the ground as Cincinnati’s rush defense ranks near the bottom of the league. The Bengals defense is also allowing 5.9 yards per play - only better than the Broncos. We're supporting three of the league's better teams this week in the underdog role, and the Bills have the best matchups to support a higher-scoring win on the Sunday Night Football feature. 

Check back Friday for more updates, analysis and underdog picks, which are 12-12 ATS this season and 174-129 ATS (57.4%) the past 6+ seasons with 101 outright underdog winners. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.   


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