Predictions and underdog picks for NFL Week 2
The NFL Week 2 slate follows a Week 1 of the NFL season that produced more upset winners including a dramatic Monday Night Football overtime win by the New York Jets. Our Week 1 underdog picks went 3-1 with three outright winners on the Browns, Raiders and NY Jets. We added more picks and props winners on MNF hitting nearly everything we posted and bet at leading online sportsbooks, along with early week opinions and considerations that went 6-2 ATS in Week 1.
We'll continue to post our early week opinions and considerations for our weekly underdog picks, and add select picks early and finalize the card each Friday after injuries are determined.
A major injury from Week 1 included Jets QB Aaron Rodgers going down for the season with a torn Achilles. The Week 2 lookahead lines had Dallas -3 over the Jets, and that line is now Dallas -9.5.
Week 1 ATS Recap
Home teams went just 6-10 SU for the second straight year in Week 1, and only 4-12 ATS. Scoring was down averaging just 41.0 points per game as totals went 4-12 over/under with all three prime-time games going under the total. Favorites were 8-8 SU and 6-10 ATS.
As I load boxscore data into a spread sheet every week, I noted that teams that ran the ball 30 or more times in Week 1 went 9-2 SU/ATS. Teams that ran the ball less than 23 times went 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS. Turnovers proved problematic again with teams that suffered at least a -3 turnover differential going 0-4 SU/ATS as the Panthers, Vikings, Giants and Bills couldn't overcome this historically 92-93% ATS situation against teams that suffer this significant TO differential.
Along with Week 1 memorable moments on Monday Night Football during the Jets-Bills game including fans remembering the 911 terrorist attacks on Sept. 1, 2001, I've relived some memorable moments during my NFL handicapping career. The 70% season posting picks at OSGA was one when we finished 28-12 ATS with 21 outright winners.
But Week 2 of the NFL season is one of my favorite weeks. During the 2009 season when I was selling picks and featured weekly on handicapping shows in Las Vegas and national radio talking sports, I went 10-0 ATS on the biggest week of releases in my career and posted publicly a written analysis for every game.
Week 2 is always an adjustment and often over-reaction to Week 1 results. It's also a week where 0-1 teams are likely to bring big efforts to avoid going 0-2. There are just three games featuring teams that both lost in Week 1, so we're assured of seeing at least three teams going to 0-2. And 0-1 teams playing 1-0 teams are often profitable bets in Week 2, and there are 11 such matchups in Week 2. Some over-reaction to Week 1 results can create an opportunity to gain a little value on the 0-1 teams with more public betting support on the 1-0 teams. Still, we'll dig into the matchups further as the week progresses and monitor the injury reports Friday.
Week 2 Systems, courtesy of VSiN
Four select systems, (over)reactions to Week 1 results, contrary thinking.
1.) Week 2 teams playing as favorites OR underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points the prior week are 44-16 SU and 38-19-3 ATS (66.7%) since 2003 (+17 units, R.O.I.: 28.3%)
Play ON teams: SF, KC, NE, ATL
2.) Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 34-16-1 SU and ATS (68%) since 2003 (+16.4 units, R.O.I.: 32.2%)
Play ON teams: CLE, CIN, CAR, LAR, IND
3.) Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 14-7 SU and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+7.4 units, R.O.I.: 35.2%)
Play ON teams: SEA, CHI, CIN, NYG
4.) Teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 have responded by going 45-25-2 ATS (64.3%) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons (+17.5 units, R.O.I.: 24.3%)
4-1-1 ATS in 2022
Play ON eams: SEA, CAR, CHI, CIN, PIT, NYG (IND at HOU cancels each other)
Week 2 Odds, Lines and Matchups
0-1 teams vs 0-1 teams
LA Chargers (-3) at Tennessee
Indianapolis (-1) at Houston
NY Giants (-5.5) at Arizona
0-1 teams vs 1-0 teams
Minnesota at Philadelphia (-7) - Thursday
Green Bay (-1.5) at Atlanta
Seattle at Detroit (-6)
Chicago at Tampa Bay (-3)
Las Vegas at Buffalo (-9.5)
Kansas City (-3) at Jacksonville
Baltimore at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Washington at Denver (-3.5)
Miami (-2) at New England - SNF
New Orleans (-3) at Carolina - MNF
Cleveland (-2) at Pittsburgh - MNF
1-0 vs 1-0
San Francisco (-8) at LA Rams
NY Jets at Dallas (-9.5)
Week 2 Underdog Picks, Opinions and Considerations
Minnesota (+7) at Philadelphia
Indianapolis at Houston (+1)
Chicago (+3) at Tampa Bay
Las Vegas (+9.5) at Buffalo
Kansas City at Jacksonville (+3)
Baltimore (+3.5) at Cincinnati
San Francisco at LA Rams (+8)
NY Jets (+9.5) at Dallas
NFL Week 2 injury reports.
Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 2 Underdog Picks
Minnesota (+7) at Philadelphia - Vikings Moneyline +250
Chicago (+3) at Tampa Bay - Bears Moneyline +130
Jacksonville (+3.5) vs Kansas City - Jaguars Moneyline +155
Chicago at Tampa Bay
This line has dipped to Bears +2.5 since we posted pick mid-week, and Chicago let us down in Week 1 for our only loser. Incompetent QB play continues for Justin Fields, who had an INT and lost fumble while posting a league-low 3.1-yard average depth of target in week 1. Fields and the Bears offense also led the NFL with 16 targets to running backs in Week 1. Fields did rush 9 times for 59 yards last week, and he rushed for more than 1,100 yards last season to lead the Bears to the No. 1 rushing attack. Chicago did outrush Green Bay 122-92 in their Week 1 loss 38-20, but Chicago's secondary was a sieve and a concern this week. But teams that had at least a 30-yard rushing edge went 9-2 SU/ATS in Week 1. My projections for Sunday's Week 2 games has the Bears with one of the biggest rushing yards edges over the Buccaneers, who had just 73 rushing yards and 242 total yards (3.6 YPPL, -2.3 net yards per play vs MIN) in a Week 1 win over the Vikings but benefited from a 3-0 turnover advantage (93% ATS historically). The Week 2 lookahead line on this game was Bears (-1.5) favored, and now we get a favorable adjustment to 'Dog. The Bears also fit a bounce back situation off a divisional loss of 14 or more points (70% ATS since 2007). Hang onto and protect the ball, and make plays please, Justin Fields.
Kansas City at Jacksonville
A rematch of last year's AFC Divisional Round playoff game won by the Chiefs. This line is now widely available at +3.5 including at BetOnline. The Jaguars have won and covered 6-straight as a home underdog including high-scoring wins last season over the Cowboys, Ravens and Chargers (playoffs). This should be another high-scoring game (bet, 51) as QB Trevor Lawrence continues his rise and improved play. The Chiefs get extra days prep off their Thursday night Week 1 loss vs Lions, and QB Patrick Mahomes is off a bad passing performance for the MVP-like performer. Must note that Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson is quite familiar with Chiefs HC Andy Reid and his play-calling and schemes. Pederson began his coaching career under Andy Reid, serving as an assistant for the Eagles from 2009 to 2012 before becoming the Chiefs OC under Reid and then following him to Philadelphia as an assistant. After Reid left to KC again, Pederson became head coach at Philadelphia and won a Super Bowl. Now Pederson has his own rising star QB and plenty of offensive weapons to attack on offense. Many people, pundits and media members expect a big bounce back by the Chiefs with DL Chris Jones returning along with TE Travis Kelce, who had 14 (short) receptions in last year's playoff win over the Jaguars. But the Jaguars look live to win at home again.
Added Betting Notes: The Colts (+1 to +1.5) are now an underdog at Houston, and after further review, research and issues with Texans offensive line, the Colts are the side to support and I added them to teasers including with Falcons. Indianapolis is an Opinion and not added to official picks but I did bet on the Colts.
We'll add insight, analysis and ATS info with our picks by Friday. Check back this weekend for any updates, additions and information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.