FairwayJay's NFL Underdog Picks for Week 12
The NFL Week 12 schedule includes three Thanksgiving Day games, and we've targeted a play to add to our NFL underdog picks. Those picks have been going the wrong way since a 15-8 ATS start through Week 6, when we went 1-1 and suffered a brutal end game loss on the Jaguars. Well, last week we bet the NY Jets +3.5 and Under 37.5 and watched in disbelief again in a 3-3 tie game in the closing seconds turn into a 10-3 Patriots win on an 84 yard punt return touchdown.
During the same early afternoon games, the Bears (+3) blew a 17-6 lead and allowed a 100 yard kickoff return touchdown. I bet the Bears +3.5 earlier in the week and actually bet more at +3 after more research as described in the Week 11 analysis and picks. Chicago rushed for more than 100 yards in the first half behind QB Fields, who tossed the late INT to seal the Bears fate again. The 56-yard FG attempt by the Bears at the end of the half was not a prudent decision, and the Falcons turned that into their own FG to end of the first half tied 17-17.
The Falcons were out-gained again for the 10th time in 11 games this season, but won. Some bettors won, others pushed, and late Bears bettors even lost as the line dipped to +2 before kickoff at many online sportsbooks. Regardless, as described, the Bears rushed for 160 yards and fk'd up again. Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards in Week 11 went 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS. The Bears were the only outright loser.
On to Week 12 and fulfilling Thanksgiving wishes to all as we chip-in more Fairway Football Forecasts in pursuit of profit. We'll try not to look like a turkey with a wrong side loser like last week's Cowboys crushing of the Vikings. The record now stands at 21-21-1 ATS this season with 18 outright underdog winners. That follows last year's 28-12 ATS 70% season. The 5+ year record posting only underdog picks at OSGA now stands at 151-112 ATS (57.4%) - a nice benefit for OSGA members and followers.
Be sure to monitor the NFL betting lines at the leading online sportsbooks and the Week 12 injury reports. Key QB injuries to monitor include Bears QB Justin Fields (shoulder). Rams QB Matthew Stafford (neck/concussion) is now ruled out against the Chiefs. With Rams backup QB John Wolford (neck) likely out, we're not interested at this point in investing in Rams running QB Bryce Perkins even taking 16 points at Kansas City.
NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks
Detroit (+9.5) vs Buffalo - Lions moneyline +345
Cleveland (+3.5) vs Tampa Bay - Browns moneyline +155
Buffalo at Detroit
Buffalo (7-3) plays their second straight game at Ford Field, but the Bills went home after their win over the Browns and return to Detroit with two disrupted weeks of practice with the winter storms in Buffalo. We rode the Lions (4-7) for 4-straight weeks and got off Detroit last week in their 31-18 road win over the Giants. The Lions rushed for 160 yards on 37 carries - a winning formula, but won't reach that against the Bills run defense that allows 106 rushing YPG but an average of 133 yards over their last three contest. The Bills average 6.4 yards per play on offense - No. 2 in the NFL. The Lions defense allows 6.4 yards per play - No. 32 in the NFL. We might look like a turkey again, but we're still suggesting a bet on the Lions in their home den. Take +10 as available on Thanksgiving Day, and add more stuffing to your turkey day feast with live betting during this game and the Giants-Cowboys and Patriots-Vikings main course.
Tampa Bay at Cleveland
The Browns running game was slowed a bit last week against the Bills stronger run defense, but QB Brissett actually passed for 324 yards and 3 TDs playing from behind. The Browns (3-7) can get back to more balance this week with their top-tier rushing attack led by Nick Chubb, who should surpass 1,000 yards for the season with at least 77 yards against the Buccaneers (5-5). The Browns are one of six teams that average at least 30 rushing attempts per game. That's a winning formula against the Buccaneers run defense has allowed 4.8 yards per rush over their last three games. Tampa Bay also runs the ball an average of 22.7 times per game. Did you know (of course not) that NFL teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game are 13-74 SU and 14-73 ATS (16%) this season? The Bucs are scoring just 16 points per game on the road while the Browns average 27 points per game at home and recall the Browns buried a better Bengals team here on Halloween 32-13 as a 3-point 'Dog. Check out the NFL Weather in Cleveland with cloudy skies and cooler temps near 50 and some light rain, and join me for another outright underdog winner on the Browns.
Check back this weekend for any updates, additions and information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.