Fairway's Football Forecast - Week 8 College Football Underdog Picks and Preview



FairwayJay had a pair of outright underdog winners last week and fires for more in Week 8 with information and insight you can bet on

College football analysis and underdog free picks

A 2-1 result last week on these pages included a pair of outright underdog winners on Louisville (+7) in a 62-59 shootout win over Wake Forest. Temple (+5) also delivered over Memphis, 30-28 to knock the Tigers out of the top 25. Washington State (+1.5) lost in the closing minute 38-34 and Nebraska was no action with QB Martinez ruled out prior to kickoff. The record is still sub-par this season at 11-13 ATS selecting underdogs only. 

Along with our Louisville and Temple outright underdog winners last week, there were some major upsets in college football

Bowling Green (+26.5) won at Toledo 20-7 and cashed +1300 on the moneyline
South Carolina (+21) took down No. 3 Georgia 20-17 in 2 overtimes and paid +1000 on the moneyline 
UNLV (+16) won at Vanderbilt 34-10 in another major upset and big moneyline payoff

NCAA Football Underdog Selections for Saturday, Oct. 19  

365 Oregon State (+11) at California - Beavers Moneyline +350
395 Tulane (+4) at Memphis - Green Wave Moneyline +155
421 Michigan (+9) at Penn State - Wolverines Moneyline +270 

Cal Oregon free pickCalifornia (4-2) has scored 17 and 7 points in their two recent games, both Pac 12 losses. They enter off a bye, but without their starting quarterback. Now the Bears are laying double digits to an improved Beavers team that was embarrassed on their home field against Cal last year 49-7. Oregon State (2-4) was blown out last week at home by Utah, the best team in the Pac 12. But we like the Beavers to bounce back and play better as they did in beating UCLA 48-31 the previous week and a 3-point loss to Stanford despite 500 yards offense and out-gaining the Cardinal by 150 yards. Oregon State has just 2 turnovers this season; fewest in the country. Cal has allowed 24 points or less in each game, but the lack off offense and running game (114 YPG) makes them a risk laying these points even rested and prepped against a weaker Beaver defense statistically. Similar efforts to recent games prior to last week gets Oregon State the cover this week against a Cal team that has been out-gained in every game this season despite its stingy defense.  

Memphis Tigers Tulane Green Wave free playMemphis (5-1) suffered their first loss of the season last week and we cashed in on Temple in the 30-28 win. We come back again against Memphis, who despite a strong, balanced offense is in against a solid and improved Tulane defense allowing 355 YPG at 5.0 YPPL; it's best defensive stats in six years. Recall last year Tulane upset Memphis 40-24 as a 14-point underdog, and current Tulane offensive coordinator Will Hall was the Memphis offensive assistant last year. Tulane head coach Willie Fritz has a balanced offense of his own to turn to and the Green Wave (5-1) have scored at least 38 points in five games this season while ranking top 5 in the country in rushing at 286 YPG at 6.3 YPR. Tulane's only loss was to Top 10 Auburn 24-6 when they held the Tigers to 379 yards and Tulane was able to rush for 120 yards on the dominating defensive front of Auburn. Memphis does get some reinforcements back in the secondary this week, but Tulane is still a stronger team this season and coach Fritz has been his best in this role off a win. Line has been adjusted, as has Tulane's power rating with their improved play. 

Michigan Penn State pickA pair of top-10 defenses battle in the Big Ten with Penn State (6-0) trying to remain undefeated against Michigan (5-1) in 'White Out' night in Happy Valley between Top 20 teams. The Nittany Lions have allowed just 49 points and rank top-3 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. Both teams are allowing 283 yards per game and 4.0 yards per play or less, and each team had close wins over Iowa the past two weeks. Penn State has scored 17 points against both Iowa and Pitt in their two toughest challenges against better defenses. The Lions were also out-gained by Buffalo in a misleading final, and while improved since Penn State has still be out-gained by three FBS opponents this season. Michigan has bounced back from it's blowout loss at Wisconsin, which ran coach Harbaugh's record to 1-6 on the road against ranked opponents. Penn State is now ranked No. 7 in the country while Michigan enters No. 16, and while that means little, what does matter is that if Michigan holds Penn State under 28 points as expected, they have a great chance to cover. Minimize turnovers and the Wolverines take this to the wire and can win.

Follow the live college football odds and the percentage of bets on each team at Sports Insights, which tracks betting data from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes.   

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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