Following a 5-1 run to get back on course, we found the rough with poor picks and handicapping last week. Some of our big 'Dogs are getting blown out, and game selection management has been poor on our underdogs. A 1-3 week drops the college underdog plays to 8-10 ATS on these pages this season.

We'll have some stats articles in the weeks ahead providing more insight on offensive efficiency and production, along with defensive strength. A few of our picks this week include teams that are defensive dominators as 'Dogs, and we'll outline more parameters in articles ahead and how to utilize in your handicapping approach.

Teams playing this Saturday following a bye last week include: Bye team in bold.

Utah State at LSU (-27.5)
Georgia (-24.5) at Tennessee  (both off bye)
Troy at Missouri (-25)
Illinois (+14) at Minnesota
Boston College at Louisville (-5)
Virginia Tech at Miami (-14)
Texas (-10.5) at West Virginia (both off bye)
Arizona at Colorado (-4)
Cal at Oregon (-18)
Tulane (-2.5) at Army
Tulsa at SMU (-13)
Boise State (-22.5) at UNLV 
San Diego State (-8) at Colorado State
UTSA at UTEP (-2)
Ohio (-3.5) at Buffalo
Kent State at Wisconsin (-35)
Bowling Green (+46) at Notre Dame
Eastern Michigan (-6) at Central Michigan
Ball State (+5) at Northern Illinois
Arkansas State at Georgia State (+7)

Teams that have a bye this week include: 

Alabama, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Indiana, Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Utah, USC, Arizona State, Washington State, BYU, Houston, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, So. Miss, No. Texas, Louisiana Tech, Miami (OH), Akron, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana, Texas State 

NCAA Underdog Selections for Saturday, Oct. 5 plus one play on Friday 

308 Cincinnati (+4) vs No. 18 UCF - Bearcats Money Line +160   (Friday)
342 New Mexico State (+4.5) vs Liberty - Aggies Money Line +155
391 No. 25 Michigan State (+20) at No. 4 Ohio State - Spartans Money Line +800

Cincinnati is a defensive dominator, and I'll provide those stat profiles in the weeks ahead. This line is down to 3.5 at some leading online sportsbooks, despite UCF taking more than 64% of the bets at Sports Insights and it's live odds data feed. An early conference test for leaders in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). The Bearcats were blown out by Ohio State in their big step up game, but they bounced back with two decisive wins and have this game circled against UCF. The Knights finally lost two weeks ago to snap a 27-game regular season winning streak. They dropped in the AP poll and are now No. 18. In that 35-34 loss at Pitt, UCF only rushed for 85 yards on 34 carries and Pitt controlled the ball, clock and chains for nearly 36 minutes with 196 rushing yards. Consider that Pitt rushes for an average of just 114 YPG this season and we see the Bearcats having more success and making it even tougher for UCF to gain traction running the ball. Cincinnati allows less than 300 yards per game, and is more than 80 YPG better on defense than UCF. The Bearcats controlled the ball for more than 37 minutes in last year's loss at UCF, but turnovers proved problematic. Cincinnati does not deviate from a run-first approach, and the Bearcats are not as explosive on offense as UCF, who starts freshman QB Gabriel and moves Wimbush to wide receiver. But the Bearcats still average 186 yards rushing and 222 yards passing per game despite a shutout loss at Ohio State that saw them gain just 273 yards. Cincinnati blew out Marshall last week 52-14 following their bye week and played their best game of the season. A big game and sold out stadium under the ESPN Friday night lights are where home upsets are born. 

We have been buried a few times by Ohio State, but as their stock rises along with the betting line, we try once more with a defensive dominator in Michigan State taking back three touchdowns. Both these teams are defensive dominators, with the Spartans allowing 15 PPG and 254 yards per game. Ohio State has been explosive on offense with four straight games off at least 500 yards. The Buckeye's are rushing for 282 yards per game and passing for 254 YPG with QB Justin Field sporting a 16-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and seven rushing touchdowns. When you combine a Buckeyes dominant defense that allows just 9 PPG, 224 YPG at 3.3 yards per play to rank No. 2 in the country in both categories, you're likely saying WFT Fairway?! At 5-0 and ranked No. 4 in the country, Ohio State has earned the accolades. But did anyone see Clemson's 22-21 escape last week at North Carolina? Or Wisconsin's powerful offense manage just one offensive touchdown at home in a 24-16 win over Northwestern? The top teams are not always at their best, and with stronger teams and defenses in Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan ahead, the Buckeye's will not keep up their offensive profile. Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio has been terrific in the underdog role, 19-9 ATS since 2011 and even better in conference revenge situations. Yes it's Ohio State, but 5-0 teams off big blowout wins and covers are a poor ATS play in game 6. Especially against defensive dominators with Playbook noting another 2-15 ATS profile working against the Buckeye's vs. a dominant defensive team like Michigan State. 

I can hear you through the monitor saying, "My God Fairway, where the freak do you come up with winless New Mexico State?" Yes, few will watch or wager on this game, or be willing to bet on one of the worst teams in the country. In fact, we go from discussing two defensive dominators to one of the worst defenses in college football, at least statistically as NMST allows 520 yards per game. But value is what we want and I challenge Liberty to be laying this price on the road with a run defense that allows 257 YPG against one of the weakest schedules in the country. Liberty bettors, however, agree with most readers sentiments with more than 70% of the bets supporting the Flames as road favorite. Yet the line has dropped, to 4 in places with a few 5's still available. Both these teams are Independents, but in terms of strength of schedule (SOS), there is no comparison with Liberty playing a soft slate in the bottom 15 in the country and New Mexico State playing a top 15 schedule against Washington State, Alabama, San Diego State, New Mexico and Fresno State. Both teams played New Mexico with the Aggies losing 55-52 but piling up nearly 500 yards on the road while Liberty beat New Mexico at home last week 17-10 with a 100 yards advantage but New Mexico coming off that rivalry win over NMST and then traveling. Now it's Liberty that travels for the first time in a month, and they lost at UL Lafayette 35-14 allowing nearly 600 yards offense including 407 yards rushing. New Mexico State has a special teams advantage and I project them to out-gain Liberty giving the Aggies a good shot to get their first win should they protect the football like they did last year in beating Liberty here. But that's been the Aggies problem, ranking dead last in the country in turnover margin (-11) with 14 total turnovers. These teams will also play a rematch on Nov. 30.

Shop lines at the leading online sportsbooks, and if you want to check out where the money is being bet on these games from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks including BookMaker and 5Dimes, then check out Sports Insight's live college football odds and see the percentage of bets, most money and over/under money being wagered. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay