Underdog free picks for NFL week 9

No regrets with last week's 1-2 result as our two losses were on teams that suffered a minus 3 or greater turnover differential. Teams that have that turnover margin are now 4-20 ATS this season when on the wrong side of 3-or-more turnover margin in a game. The Buccaneer and Browns cost us last week and just missed the ATS covers in defeat with the Bucs out-gaining the Titans 389 (5.1 YPPL) to 246 (4.3 YPPL) and running 76 plays to 57 for the Titans. Oh, and the rushing numbers were 106 yards (30 rush attempts) to 72 (21 attempts). What does that mean, other than QB Winston is a turnover dope? Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are covering at 63% ATS this season (lowest in 20 years), while teams that run the ball at least 30 times are 54-22 ATS. Teams than run the ball less than 23 times in a game are worst at 21-61 ATS. The poor officiating didn't help the Bucs, but those are some of the hazards of betting.

Oh, the Browns (+11) and their 3 turnovers in the first quarter to gift the Patriots a 17-0 lead. Along with fumbling after a near 50 yard run inside the Patriots 15 yard line, the Browns managed to come back to out-rush the Patriots 159 to 79 and out-gain the Patriots 5.3 yards per play to 4.8. Cleveland just so happened to also have a week high 13 penalties to just four for the perfect Patriots. Figure that out. 

The frustrations were enough to not add the Dolphins (+14) Monday night as we mentioned in the Week 8 , and the floundering fish jumped to a 14-0 lead and a pretty easy cover in a 27-14 loss at Pittsburgh.   

We move on and continue our pursuit of profit underdog style looking to avoid the turnovers by our teams which can be so costly and some of the poor officials calls that are turning the tide in too many games as well. 

More injury news, analysis and market moves at the online sportsbooks. Check the status of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and note that a 15th backup quarterback will start this season when Brandon Allen starts for injured Joe Flacco in Denver causing another shakeup in the lines at the leading online sportsbooks with the Browns up to a 4-point road favorite after the Broncos opened -1. 

NFL Week 9 - Sunday, Nov. 3 

465 Detroit (+2.5) at Oakland - Lions Moneyline +120 (take +3 on game day as available)
467 Tampa Bay (+5) at Seattle - Buccaneers Moneyline +200 

The NFL weather report shows no severe weather of note but some potential light rain in London for the Jaguars and Texans game. 

The Raiders return home to Oakland for the first time since Week 2. Man did the NFL schedule makers mess with our soon to be Las Vegas Raiders, who are playing better than most expected but still have some defensive deficiencies. Oakland also has offensive line issues with center Hudson out after leaving last week's game and the backup center missing practice time this week. The Lions are very thin at running back, but overcame it last week and now face a stronger Raiders run defense. Both the Lions (3-3-1) and Raiders (3-4) defenses are in the bottom quartile in yards allowed. The Lions have only been handled by one team, the Vkings, who also buried the Raiders. Detroit could easily have five wins or even six, having both Kansas City and Green Bay beaten late before falling with unfortunate calls and plays. The Raiders were beaten soundly by the Packers and Chiefs along with the Vikings. Still, it's sometimes about timing and injuries, and neither team is at their healthiest or best right now. The NFC is the stronger conference this season, and the Raiders are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games against the NFC. Despite some sharp money showing on the Raiders, we play the Lions and add them to teasers as well.

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We come right back with the Buccaneers (2-5) and their clueless quarterback Winston after he buried Bucs bettors again last week. Now 10 turnovers HIMSELF the past two games, is there any question that ball security is of most importance? Or to expect a quarterback to understand that a little better than Winston? We covered that stats from last week's game above with Tampa taking it to Tennessee in defeat. For the two decades of stats that I have kept with regards to rushing, I can assure you those numbers equate to nearly 90% ATS winners when combined. Unfortunately, a negative 3 or more turnover margin means a 92-93% chance of failing ATS. The Seahawks have allowed 141 rushing YPG over their last three contests and 4.9 yards per rush for the season to rank No. 29 in the league. If Curley (Winston) and Moe (OC Leftowich) can't figure out the correct game plan for balance this week, then there is little hope again. Overrated Seattle has allowed 27 points per game over their last four contests and at least 20 points in all but one game this season. The Bucs run defense statistically is No. 1 in the NFL allowing just 68 rushing YPG and 3.0 YPR. So the line of scrimmage on both sides is fine for Tampa Bay. Now if only the former No. 1 overall draft pick Winston can pull his head out of his A--, then his teammates and bettors might appreciate the taste of victory a bit more. Bucs be damned. 

Check the NFL injury reports for updates as game times near. 
 
With the powerful Patriots now down to a 3-point favorite at Baltimore in the Sunday night feature, we'll pass on these pages, but note a bet on Baltimore has been made and teasers as well. Despite playing the softest schedule, New England is allowing 4.6 yards per rush and Baltimore brings the No. 1 rushing attack (204/game) with QB Jackson leading the team in rushing and going for his third straight game rushing for at least 100 yards. If only he could read defenses and pass better. He gets a little benefit of the doubt in his second year and improving, but up against the Patriots top-tier secondary does not give confidence that Jackson can avoid mistakes and misreads when forced to pass. 

The Vikings as an underdog has some appeal even if Mahomes returns, as the rushing numbers suggest success for the Vikings and the attack has really balanced with QB Cousins on target during the four-game winning streak. 

The Dolphins have their best chance at victory this week, and how the heck could you lay a field goal with the Jets this week. Another play on the Dolphins but pass on these pages with the best number gone down to +3 for Miami. 

Shop and compare lines at the leading online sportsbooks and also check out the bonus offers. You can also check out Sports Insights live odds and betting data with percentages of bets on teams taking from a consensus of seven leading online sportsbooks, including BookMaker and 5Dimes. 

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay