NFL Week 4 Picks And Insights

The NFL Week 4 schedule features just three division games, and one of them kicked off Thursday night with the Seahawks getting a last second field goal and 23-20 road win over the Cardinals. The other two division contests are between four winless teams - Titans-Texans in Houston and Jets-Dolphins Monday night in Miami - not what the NFL had in mind when scheduling 2025 prime time games. The Vikings-Steelers game is in Dublin, Ireland kicks off early watch and wager action Sunday.

Other Week 4 tips, totals, teasers and trends are provided in my separate NFL Week 4 coverage along with picks, parlays and props below with odds and betting options to compare at top online sportsbooks. 

A battle of unbeatens is one of the featured games in Week 4 as the Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) tackle the Buccaneers (3-0) in Tampa Bay. Both teams have had some fortunate wins, including last week's miracle for the Eagles after trailing the Rams 26-7 in the second half. But that right side bet on the underdog Rams turned into a gut punch and belly ache, however, we're back on the Rams this week and also a totals tip and play in our tips and totals feature.

Not included is the Packers-Cowboys Sunday Night Football feature with cash bonuses offered on the Green Bay - Dallas game in LB Micah Parson's return to the Lone Star state. Top sportsbooks offering -6.5 or -7 on the road favorite Packers with BookMaker offering Green Bay -6.5 (-113) and rebranded, reduced-juice leader BetAnything sportsbook offering -7 options on the Sunday Night Football game. 

Sign up for the complimentary OSGA newsletter and you also receive this week's information you can bet on for key numbers when betting on football with 9-11% of NFL games landing on 7 as a margin of victory. That's obviously a key number in the Packers-Cowboys game with the Packers also a popular teaser.

Another marquee matchup is the Sunday late afternoon game that will draw more betting and watch and wager action when the Baltimore Ravens (1-2) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) continue their big game rivalry. However, this time each team sports losing records early in the season. An adjusted chart and odds on ESPNBet shows current Super Bowl odds and season win totals with the Ravens still at their pre-season win total of 11.5, but the Chiefs down to 9.5. 

I bet the Chiefs under 11.5 wins preseason, and KC in a rare home underdog role at +2.5 with reduced odds (-105) Sunday night against the Ravens. 

NFL Week 4 Odds And Picks

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold. Betting lines and odds current as of Saturday morning, PT. 

Seattle (-1.5) at Arizona, 43.5 - Thursday
Minnesota (-2.5) at Pittsburgh 41 - Ireland
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Tampa Bay, 44
New Orleans at Buffalo (-15.5), 47.5
Carolina at New England (-5), 43.5
Washington at Atlanta (-2), 43.5 (favorite flipped)
Cleveland at Detroit (-10), 44
Tennessee at Houston (-7), 39.5
LA Chargers (-6.5) at NY Giants, 43.5
Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5), 46
Indianapolis at LA Rams (-3.5), 49.5
Chicago at Las Vegas (pk), 47.5
Baltimore (-2.5) at Kansas City, 48.5
Green Bay (-7) at Dallas, 46.5 - Sunday Night 
NY Jets at Miami (-3), 44.5 - Monday Night
Cincinnati at Denver (-7.5), 44 - Monday Night 

Picks: Rams 
Opinions: Bucs

Any additions Sunday and Monday. More player props below. 

3-team parlay: Rams, Vikings, Falcons 
2-team 'Dog parlay: Bucs, Jets 

Bet on NFL Football at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Rushing To The Window

Notable projected rushing edges Sunday favor favorites Bills, Lions, Texans, Ravens, Packers. Teams that out-rush their opponent in a game by 30+ yards are 25-9 SU and 21-13 ATS (62%), well below the historical average of near 75% ATS including the last six years and 74% ATS in 2024 on more than 175+ games. Also, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS this season, which is historically better than 80% ATS including 82% last season. 

Note four teams playing this Sunday have a bye in Week 5 - Steelers, Falcons, Bears, Packers. Not posting early picks cost us a teaser addition on the more healthier Falcons, who were an underdog but now a home favorite and lean their way.

Also, noteable lookahead lines for NFL Week 5 include 49ers-Rams (-3) showdown in Los Angeles with a total of 47. The Colts (-6.5, 49) host the Raiders and the Eagles (-5.5, 43.5) host the Broncos in two key interconference games. The highest game total is the Lions (-7.5)-Bengals game in Cincinnati at 49.5 with QB Joe Burrow out with injury.

Indianapolis at LA Rams - The Colts (3-0 SU/ATS) are unbeaten and tied for a league-high +5 net turnover margin. Indy has punted just once this season while playing the weakest schedule in the league. New Colts QB Daniel Jones has shined while playing to an MVP level with a 111.7 passer rating and 816 passing yards, 3 TD's plus 3 rushing TD's and zero turnovers including 316 passing yards against a stronger Denver defense in a fortunate 29-28 win. The Colts and Jones do face their toughest test in back-to-back road games as the Rams have 12 sacks through three games and a top-5 defense in both yards allowed and success rate. Potential to create turnovers, field position and defensive pressure plus the Colts inadequate special teams. The Rams should be 3-0, but blew last week's game (and cover!) at Philadelphia in dramatic fashion including a 26-7 lead. Quarterback Matthew Stafford will fire into a Colts secondary now missing their starting nickel back. The Rams are also +7.8% in net success rate while also playing a tougher schedule with the Colts +5.8%. Projecting more scoring from the Rams in victory. 

Stats, ATS And Proven Pointspread Winners

Did you know that in competitively lined NFL games of 6-points or less, teams that win the game are 34-4 ATS (89.5%) this season? The favorite wins and covers a majority of the time or the 'Dog wins outright. This season again just like historically, high 80% ATS win rate, and another reason to bet the underdog on the Moneyline if you like them, which I did often while hitting 57% ATS posting only NFL underdog picks over a 7-year run at OSGA from 2017-2023 including an 11-1 ATS run in December, 2023. That also included a top of the leaderboard 70% ATS season in 2021, which followed a previous 8-straight winning NFL seasons of 57% ATS winners producing profits and payouts. 

Baltimore at Kansas City

- Annual playoff teams and rivals both have started the season 1-2, so this becomes a pivotal early season game to close September. The Ravens are annual rushing leaders including attempts, but this season they are No. 12 in the league averaging 122 yards per game with RB Henry and QB Jackson leading the way but just 23 rushing attempts per game - historically low for the Ravens and No. 27 in the NFL thus far this season. Little known fact is the Chiefs are 7-0 SU with Clay Martin as the head referee, which he will be Sunday in Kansas City. This is the first time they will be an underdog with Clayton as lead official. The Ravens are the only team that does not have an offensive holding penalty this season, yet their running game is struggling overall. Clayton's crew calls a disproportionate amount of penalties on 3rd down (39%) this season (league avg 23%). Both teams have higher rate of penalties on 3rd down this season. The Chiefs fastest receiver Xavier Worthy is expected to play after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury. Yardage projections overall are pretty close, and while the Chiefs would seemingly be a favorable home underdog and teaser, I'll pass and consider live betting for watch and wager action after viewing early player performances and point of attack play.

NFL Player Props And Picks

Please note that player props odds, yardages and promotions vary more greatly at leading online sportsbooks. Do your best to shop various props, odds and options noting too that last Monday's Week 3 winning prop had a sharp move upward on Jahmyr Gibbs and still sailed over his combined rushing and receiving yards. We also cashed our Week 3 posted player prop on Broncos QB Bo Nix under 217.5 passing yards (easy, 157). 

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Over 16.5 receiving yards
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Over 39.5 receiving yards
Packers TE Tucker Kraft: Over 43.5 receiving yards
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: Under 24.5 receiving yards

Add a smaller portion of bets, perhaps up to 1/2 units 'over' receptions for RB Barkley and TE's Pitts/Kraft. 

Update: Player props picks 4-0 plus 3-0 on additional opinions and recommendations. 

Also, more short passes and screens by Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence with a league-high 19% screen rate against 49ers soft zone coverage now missing top DE and pass rusher Nick Bosa. See if rookie top pick WR Travis Hunter is more involved with WR Brian Robinson, Jr. also benefitting and some to RB Travis Etienne as well. 

Advanced stats including those from Dr. Bob Sports notes that the Commanders defense ranks last in the league in receiving yards allowed to inline tight ends this season. Backup safety is likely to struggle against TE Kyle Pitts, who ranks 4th among tight ends in receiving yards from inline assignments. 

The Cowboys defense is expected to improve with some players healthy and returning to the lineup after surrendered five explosive passing plays for 201 yards and 385 total yards (6.8 yppl) to the Bears last week in a 31-14 defeat. Dallas has surrendered 6.5 yards per play this season to rank No. 31 in the NFL while the Packers defense is allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per play. But Packers TE Tucker Kraft is rising while averaging a league-high 0.87 EPA per target and he has a favorable matchup finding openings in the Cowboys zone with Dallas surrendering a 59% success rate to opposing tight ends (No. 28 in NFL). 

Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed just 2 passes with 10+ air yards in the first 2.5 games until last week's second half comeback against the Rams. Dr. Bob sports notes that Hurts ranks 28th relatively against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush, and he was 26th last year. Tampa Bay’s defense has a 43% blitz rate (6th-highest). So anticipate RB Saquon Barkley to be a key in the short passing game, and the Eagles will counter the blitzes and screens. Barkley has a 50% receiving success rate (5th), and the Buccaneers defense ranks 29th in EPA/target allowed to opposing running backs after also ranking 29th in last season.

Please note Our player prop hit easy last Sunday in our Week 3 picks and props with a winner on Broncos QB Bo Nix under his passing yards prop. We'll chip-in this week's player props, and try to add more stats and analysis ahead of Sunday's games as more props, odds and offers become available. 

Quarterback changes this week includes the NY Giants giving rookie top draft pick Jaxson Dart his NFL debut start with Russell Wilson heading to the bench. One NFL handicapper (CLEVTA), analyst and analytics expert notes that NFL first round QB's in their first career start in season are 7-14 ATS since 2010. Dart will be challenged by a Chargers defense allowing a league-low 35% success rate and allowed the Broncos offense just 9 first downs in last week's Chargers (and our) win. 

Follow more Tips, Trends, Totals and Teasers and @FairwayJay on X. Check back for player props and any additional game day picks, stats and updates along with the Monday Night Football doubleheader Jets-Dolphins and Bengals-Broncos.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.