Picks, Props and Parlays for Week 12 of the NFL Season

The surprises continue into NFL Week 12 with the Houston Texans (+5.5) and a backup quarterback taking down the preseason AFC favorites Buffalo Bills 23-19 Thursday night. Perhaps that home underdog win propels more home 'Dogs to bark and bite, as NFL home underdogs are still winning less than half those games straight up this season, and now 32-36 ATS by my numbers. 

I track boxscore data each week of the NFL season with key stats, rushing, passing, yards per play, turnovers, penalties, and more including proprietary rushing stats to guide us to more winners. That's what we did from 2017-2023 posting only NFL underdog picks at OSGA hitting 57% ATS winners including a 70% ATS season in 2021 before 2024's record results for betting favorites from Week 11 forward. 

Now I chip-in weekly tips, totals, teasers and trends each week followed by picks, props and parlays with player props 16-8 since Week 3 plus some team total winners following Week 11 Monday Night Football player prop winner. 

Fairway's Forecast scored some touchdowns in NFL Week 11 with a 3-0 Sunday sweep on NFL sides, a 2-team 'Dog parlay winner but a poor showing on NFL game totals. I added some additional coverage of the 9 divisional contests with 3 key division games, and all three were decided on the final play/kick of the game between the Chiefs-Broncos, Bears-Vikings and Seahawks-Rams. 

Let's shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron in Week 12 ahead of next week's Thanksgiving Day games, which I chip-in a preview for BetOnline. 

NFL Week 12 Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites and division games in bold. 

- Buffalo (-5.5) at Houston, 43.5 - Thursday (Texans win 23-19)
- Pittsburgh at Chicago (-2.5), 45.5
- NY Jets at Baltimore (-13.5), 44
- NY Giants at Detroit (-13), 50.5
- New England (-7) at Cincinnati, 51
- Seattle (-13) at Tennessee, 40
- Minnesota at Green Bay (-6.5), 41.5
- Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3), 49.5
- Jacksonville (-3) at Arizona, 47.5
- Cleveland at Las Vegas (-4), 36
- Atlanta at New Orleans (-2), 40.5
- Philadelphia (-3.5 / 3 ) at Dallas, 47.5
- Tampa Bay at LA Rams (-6.5), 49.5 - SNF
- Carolina at San Francisco (-7), 49.5 - MNF

Bye: Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins, Commanders

Notable line moves from early NFL odds and posting of Week 12 tips, totals, teasers and trends as Lions are up from -10.5 to -13, Chiefs -3.5 to -3, Eagles -3.5 to -3, Saints -2 after opening as 'Dog, Patriots -8.5 to -7 with Bengals QB Joe Burrow potentially returning to his first live action since Week 2. Also, Vikings/Packers total 41.5 to 40.5 moves under key number. 

Situational spot: Lions QB/Coach combo of Goff and Campbell are 13-0 ATS off a SU loss, and Detroit has covered 10 of the last 12 after scoring less than 15 points. Giants backup QB Jameis Winston starts, which caused the sharp line move, and Winston should be good for a few turnovers. 

Check out the Week 12 injury reports, and monitor the NFL weather. More quarterback news and stats along with QB's out this week and some for the season like Michael Penix (ATL, knee). Dillon Gabriel (CLE, concussion), CJ Stroud (HOU, concussion), Kyler Murray (AZ, foot), Aaron Rodgers (PIT, left wrist, non-displaced fracture, monitor status) are out. Also monitor Joe Burrow (CIN, toe) as he tries to return after missing the past eight games. 

NFL Week 12 Picks

Picks: Packers
Opinions: Cowboys, Browns, Chiefs

3-team parlay: Packers, Chiefs, Cowboys 
2-team 'Dog parlay: Cowboys, Browns

Minnesota at Green Bay - Vikings sub-300 yards per game offense will struggle generating long drives against a Green Bay defense allowing just 20 points, 292 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play - best in the NFC. That includes just 97 rushing ypg at 3.8 yards per rush (MIN 127/4.1). Vikings often injured 2nd year QB J.J. McCarthy was awful last week in his 7th NFL start missing numerous passes and open receivers against the Bears poor defense. McCarthy is now performing among the worst in the league averaging a league-low -0.24 EPA/play. That’s 0.06 EPA/play worse than bumbling Cam Ward. Also, McCarthy's struggles include the lowest 3rd-down passer rating projection since 2000 after finishing with just 150 yards on 50% completions and 2 interceptions last week with a late 4th quarter rally against prevent defense. The Packers have a 34-7 record after week 10 of the season when hosting teams that play in domes, and Green Bay is a teaser addition as well. 

Philadelphia at Dallas - Line is dipping and more Eagles -3 showing but still some +3.5 available on Cowboys. Philadelphia plays without two key offensive linemen this week in Cam Jurgens (concussion) and best tackle Lane Johnson (foot). Those two players are worth at least 2-points to the Eagles offense, and will struggle more against the Cowboys improved and acquired interior defenders. The Cowboys offense is top-tier and leading the NFC in yards per game (378), and just behind the Lions in yards per play (5.9). Quarterback Dak Prescott leads the NFL's top passing offense at 258 yards per game. 

Projected rushing edges by margin in Week 12 matchups include: Ravens, Lions, Seahawks and Patriots as big favorites. The Browns as road 'Dog have rushing edges too against the decimated Raiders and their offensive line injuries against the Browns top-tier defense that ranks No. 5 in DVOA. That makes the Browns a play, DESPITE concerns with bumbling rookie QB Shedeur Sanders making his first NFL start and showing poorly in relief last week. But Browns rookie QB Dillon Gabriel has been a league-worst thus far in his starts, and now Browns coaches and play calling will rely on rookie RB Quinshon Judkins. He leads all NFL rookies in rushing with 620 yards, just ahead or Raiders top rookie RB Ashton Jeanty (554). Sanders will be running too, hopefully with some purpose and few turnovers. If the Browns fail us and their fans again, remind me to stay clear from these young, clueless quarterbacks. The Browns coaches couldn't have picked a better opponent and indoor stadium to provide QB Sanders a chance for some success. 

Check out the top offenses in the NFL, along with DVOA rankings. 

DVOA And Scoring 

The top teams in total DVOA, Defense Adjusted Value Over Average advanced stat that measures efficiency heading into Week 12 prior to Thanksgiving Day games includes: (plus scoring offense/defense points per game) 

1. Seattle Seahawks (29.4 / 19.3)
2. Los Angeles Rams (27.2 / 17.2)
3. Indianapolis Colts (32.1 / 20.6)
4. Detroit Lions (29.2 / 21.6)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (25.4 / 18.1)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (23.4 / 20.1)
7. Green Bay Packers (24.0 / 19.6)
8. Denver Broncos (23.4 / 17.5)
9. Buffalo Bills (29.2 / 22.9)
10. Houston Texans (22.0 / 16.3) 
11. Baltimore Ravens (25.2 / 25.1)
12. San Francisco 49ers (23.7 / 22.9)
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25.2 / 25.0)
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (24.6 / 23.2)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (24.0 / 22.6)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (22.4  / 21.6)
17. New England Patriots (26.5 / 18.7)
18. Atlanta Falcons (19.5 / 23.9)
19. Dallas Cowboys (29.6 / 29.3)
25. Chicago Bears (25.8 / 26.4)
20-24 - Commanders, Cardinals, Dolphins, Vikings, Giants
26-32 - Panthers, Jets, Bengals Raiders, Saints, Browns, Titans

Note the Bears and Steelers are in first place in their respective divisions and below average in DVOA as they play this week in Chicago. 

Colts-Chiefs 

The big AFC contest in Kansas City is between the Colts (8-2), off a bye, and the third place Chiefs (5-5), who won the AFC championship game last season following their 9th consecutive AFC West title. But the Chiefs are outside the playoff picture into Week 12 after losing to the first place Broncos 19-16 in Denver in Week 11. 

The Chiefs are still priced as a solid favorites to make the playoffs (-185) with a nice takeback to miss the playoffs (+150). A loss to the Colts will really set the Chiefs back, and Kansas City is now 1-5 SU/ATS against winning teams this season. The Chiefs are also 0-5 SU/ATS in one-score games this season after going 13-0 last season on their way to the Super Bowl. But Playbook Sports notes that NFL teams who are 5-5 or worse and favored versus an opponent with an .800 or greater win percentage are 14-0 SU and 12-0-2 ATS since 1990.

Kansas City plays at Dallas against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day with an advance line of Chiefs -3.5 (down from -4) and game total 51 points. 

NFL Player Props 

Check back for any additions as we chip-in more NFL picks, props and parlays with player props 16-8 since Week 3 posting at OSGA. A 12-0 run on player props has cooled, but let's fire for more production again this week.  

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence - Over 214.5 passing yards and Over 19.5 completions

See Travor Lawrence's game log and see why he'll complete more passes for more yards against a Cardinals disappointing defense that has struggled the past two weeks allowing 40 points in back-to-back weeks with poor pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks. The Cardinals are averaging nearly 8 penalties per game (bottom 5 NFL) and very poor special teams. That contributes to overall struggles, and opposing teams having the ball more often. The Jaguars are top-3 in the NFL in time of possession. Arizona is now 1-4 SU at home with 4-straight losses allowing at least 22 points in each contest. Lawrence easily eclipsed both these prop numbers against strong, top-2 DVOA defenses of the Seahawks and Rams last month. The Jaguars success running the ball will lead to more open opportunities in the pass game for Lawrence and the Jaguars receivers with newly acquired Jakobi Meyers adding more pass game success.

Check back this weekend for additional updates, stats, picks, props and information you can bet on.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.