Preview and pick for the PAC-12 matchup

The Odds

BYU (2-1) will entertain a second PAC-12 team in as many weeks as #22 Washington (2-1) is on the docket. The opening kickoff from LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah is slated for 3:30 PM ET. At the time of this writing, college football betting odds at Bookmaker has BYU posted as a 6.5-point underdog.

Revenge Factor

BYU will be out to revenge last year’s 35-7 loss at Washington. The Cougars also failed to cover that contest as an 18.5-point underdog. Since 2013, BYU has gone 3-0 ATS when playing with revenge as a home underdog against all teams not named Utah. The Cougars won 2 of those 3 games straight up.

Red Flag

The Washington Huskies remain a ranked team despite losing 20-19 at home to California as a 22.0-point favorite in Week 2. Granted California is currently 3-0 and is now included in the Top 25 rankings. However, the Bears struggled to get past North Texas 23-17 at home last week and was equally unimpressive during a 27-13 home win over UC-Davis (FCS) in their season opener.

Cougars Riding Wave of Momentum

After losing their season opener at home to #10 Utah, BYU has rebounded to pull off upset wins in each of their last 2 games. The first of which came at Tennessee, and then there was last week’s win over USC in Provo. Furthermore, both those wins required overtime which corresponds to the Cougars betting value of being a home underdog that’s battle tested.



College Football Betting Angle

Since 1981, non-conference home underdogs of 3.0 to 9.5-points (BYU) with a winning record who were playing with revenge before Game 5 of the season, and were coming off a non-conference SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs within those point-spread parameters going 23-11 ATS (68%) since 1981.

Final Take and Pick

BYU has shown themselves to be a very physical football team on both sides of the ball thus far in 2019. The Cougars are disciplined and very well coached. Additionally, they have a star in the making in sophomore quarterback Zach Wilson. Washington is unequivocally the more athletic of these 2 teams. Nevertheless, there’s too much college football betting value on the home underdog in this matchup for me to ignore.

Pick: BYU +6.5

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com