College Football Top 25 Matchups And 2026 Week 1 Preview and Picks

I cover college football and the NFL throughout the season and have posted winning picks for a decade here at Off Shore Gaming Association. I'll continue more coverage this season of the biggest games each week in the AP Top 25 that draw more media coverage and watch and wager action, along with other select games of interest. From the betting lines and adjustments at top online sportsbooks to key matchups, insight and odds updates, I'll chip-in Picks and Opinions with additional information you can bet on. 

Our college football Week 0 previews and picks went 4-2 on all Opinions (no picks), including 3-0 on game totals. The first 'bad beat' of the season was on Hawaii (+4) when the Rainbow Warriors fumbled away the game late at Stanford as the Cardinal returned it for a TD in the closing minute to win 37-27. That said, Stanford had separation in the stats (483-322) including a big rushing edge (173-46) that translates to higher-percentage ATS wins. The Cardinal controlled play for three quarters before Hawaii rallied and actually took the lead in the final four minutes before distaster struck for Rainbow Warriors bettors. 

As you watch and wager on the 2026 college football teams, you can follow the Top 25 teams dominated by the Power 4 conferences. Reference team previews, futures odds, season wins and additional information you can bet on in the Big Ten and SEC, plus the Big 12 and ACC. 

Also, as you evaluate the Week 1 betting lines which have been posted for months, opinions and positions have been made by various influential betting groups and professionals. We've seen line moves, and now top online sports and reduced juice sportsbooks offer bigger betting limits. There is also more high-variance with greater player turnover, transfer portal and changes with coaches and coordinators. 

There are 43 FBS vs. FBS matchups in Week 1 including the most watched and wagered games in the Top 25 with matchups and odds below. 

Top 25 Games and Week 1 Betting Lines

Betting lines and college football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals. All times ET. 

Check back by Friday each week and my updates on X as Fairways Forecast adds Picks and Opinions with select analysis, stats and information you can bet on. 

Thurs., Sept. 3 

- Idaho at No. 21 Utah (NL) | 9 p.m. | ESPNU
- Arkansas-Pine Bluff at No. 25 Missouri (NL) | 8 p.m. | SECN

Fri., Sept. 4

- No. 7 Miami (-21.5, total 47.5) at Stanford | 9 p.m. | ESPN
- UTEP at No. 10 Oklahoma (-41.5, total 50.5) | 8 p.m. | SECN+
- Fresno State at No. 14 USC (-22, total 51.5) | 9 p.m. | FOX

Sat., Sept. 5

- Ball State at No. 1 Ohio State (-49.5, total 56) | 12:30 p.m. | BTN
- Boise State at No. 2 Oregon (-24.5, 52) | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
- Tennessee State at No. 3 Georgia (NL) | 3 p.m. | SECN+
- Texas State at No. 5 Texas (-30.5, 60) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- North Texas at No. 6 Indiana (-40.5, 55.5) | 12 p.m. | FOX
- Missouri State at No. 8 Texas A&M (-41, 53) | 7 p.m. | ESPN
- No. 26 Clemson at No. 11 LSU (-10.5, 51.5) | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
- Abilene Christian at No. 12 Texas Tech (NL) | 7 p.m. | FS1
- East Carolina at No. 13 Alabama (-29, 54) | 12 p.m. | ABC
- Utah Tech at No. 15 BYU (NL) | 8 p.m. | ESPN+
- Western Michigan at No. 16 Michigan (-28, 48.5) | 7:30 p.m. | NBC
- Marshall at No. 18 Penn State (-24.5, 54.5) | 3:30 p.m. | FS1
- Furman at No. 20 Tennessee (NL) | 3:30 p.m. | SECN+
- Northern Illinois at No. 22 Iowa (-32, 46) | 4:15 p.m. | Big Ten Network
- Oregon State at No. 23 Houston (-20.5, 51) | 12 p.m. | ESPN

Sun., Sept. 6

- No. 4 Notre Dame (-20.5) vs. Wisconsin (47.5 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay) | 7:30 p.m. | NBC
- No. 9 Ole Miss (-6.5) vs. No. 24 Louisville (56, Nissan Stadium in Nashville) | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
- Washington State at No. 17 Washington (-23.5, 50.5) | 4 p.m. | NBC 

Mon., Sept. 7

No. 19 SMU (-3) at Florida State, 53.5 | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN

Other notable games

- Colorado at Georgia Tech (-6.5, total 51) - Thursday
- Tulane at Duke (-9, 51)
- Baylor at Auburn (-7, 59)
- Oklahoma State (-14) at Tulsa (59)
- Wyoming at Colorado State (-3, 47)
- UNLV (-3), at Hawaii (58)
- UCLA (-1.5) at Cal (53) 
- Central Michigan at New Mexico (-10.5, 46.5)

Bet on NCAA Football at one of these top rated sportsbooks!

Stats, Strategies and ATS Notes 

So many huge favorites in Week 1, and we add some ATS notes from the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN). Since 2013, FBS vs FCS favorites of greater than 37 points are > 54% ATS on a sample size of more than 100 games. However, huge FBS vs. FBS favorites or > 37 points are 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS. Wagertalk says the situation is 19-4 ATS (lines can vary opening/closing/sportsbook) after Penn State and Georgia won big but just failed to cover in Week 1 last year. Two teams fit the 15-3 ATS angle this year in Week 1.

- Ball State at Ohio State (-49.5)
- North Texas at Indiana (-40.5)

Rushing Advantages and ATS Results

Each college football season there are more than 300 games in which a team outrushes their opponent by at least a 2/1 margin. Over the past five seasons, those 'double rushers' with the big running game edge have covered the spread in 79% of those contests including 78% ATS during the 2025 season. I'll be updating some of those stats this season on Top 25 games and all FBS vs. FBS matchups. 

In Week 0, those teams went 3-1 SU/ATS with Stanford (143-46), North Dakota State (209-84) and Viginia (258-76) all producing dominant running game edges and wins as favorites, but Florida State (217-47) failing to cover in a 34-17 win.

Week 1: Colorado (183-53) did the same to kick off Week 1 and the Buffaloes (+6') won outright, 14-13 at Georgia Tech. The huge upset by UMASS (+29') over Rutgers 37-21 saw the Minuteman from the MAC outrush the weak Big Ten entrant Knights 200-30. 

So these double rushing teams are off to a 5-1 ATS start this season, and some of the huge Top 25 favorites project to have big rushing game edges, but I'm not laying the points except for one team below. 

- Oklahoma over UTEP
- West Virginia over Coastal Carolina (non top 25)
- Florida over FAU (non top 25)
- Texas over Texas State
- Texas A&M over Missouri State
- Iowa over No. Illinois
- Houston over Oregon State
- Washington over Washington State

Select Week 1 Top 25 Matchups and Picks 

Opinion: Clemson-LSU Under 
Update more Friday.

Clemson at LSU (-10.5, 51.5)

Prime time game in Baton Rouge on ABC and streaming on ESPN. Clearly one of the most watched and wagered games to kick off the 2026 season. Lane Kiffin's first game as LSU's head coach and all the hype surrounding him and the Louisiana State program. Clemson looks for a bounce back season under 19th-year coach Dabo Swinney. LSU and Clemson started last season ranked in the top 10, but both Tigers finished a disappointing 7-6 last season following bowl game losses. Complete turnover on offense for LSU with new QB, loaded RB and WR groups and nine offensive lineman added through the transfer portal. The LB group is among the best in the SEC. The Clemson defense held eight opponents to 20 points or few last season and was among the nation's leader in third-down defense. A stronger defensive line, top tackler and four key secondary additions. Along with a new QB starting for Clemson, and the early Opinion is under the total and Clemson as double-digit 'Dog as we evaluate more for this big ACC vs. SEC battle in Baton Rouge. 

Sunday Top 25 Games

Louisville vs. Ole Miss (-6.5, 55.5) Mostly 6.5's favoring Ole Miss and search out select +7's if you prefer Louisville. Head coach Lane Kiffin is gone to LSU, but the Ole Miss Rebels have many key players returning including QB Trinidad Chambliss and top RB Kewan Lacy plus some top transfers (WR, LB) from a team that made the College Football Playoff and advanced to the semifinals last year. One of the Rebels best seasons in school history (13 wins) was led by an explosive offense that averaged 36.9 points and 490 yards per game, but do have a new offensive coordinator calling plays. But Louisville’s coaching continuity and 14 returning starters from a 9-win team can compete well with top teams if junior transfer QB Lincoln Kienholz (Ohio State) develops and plays to higher expectations. It’s his first college start, and the Cardinals will lean on last season’s FBS leading RB in yards per rush (8.8) Isaac Brown. It’s his first college start and while on a neutral field in Nashville, it’s a big challenge against an Ole Miss team that has edges in all three phases. Still, Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is 11-4 ATS as an underdog of 7 or more points while at Louisville and Purdue, and the Cardinals have beaten three top-11 teams outright the last three seasons including No. 2 Miami last year on the road as a 2+ TD ‘Dog. Lean: Louisville +6.5 / 7. 

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (-20.5, 47.5 in Green Bay) - The Badgers should be improved off another disappointing losing season (4 wins and 9-15 last 2 years) under hot seat 4th year coach Luke Fickell. It will show along the defensive line again as the Badgers allowed just 105 rushing ypg and 21.6 points per game last season. No such issues for coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish as a national title favorite and having edges in all three phases in this matchup including a dominant defensive front 7 that ranks top 5 nationally along the DL and LB's and a No. 1 rated secondary. Wisconsin scored 0, 0, 7, 13, 7 and 7 points in six of their final seven games last season and their last nine games all stayed under the game total. Correlated plays makes sense taking big points in a lower scoring game, but their is some risk with the Badgers failing to score 2 TD's and a new transfer duel quarterback stepping way up in class. Opinion Under and Lean Wisconsin.

Other Picks and Opinions (non top 25)

Central Michigan (+10.5) at New Mexico. The Lobos are a preseason favorite to win the Mountain West, but recent news is their senior starting QB will have a second surgery on his throwing elbow and miss the season. A lower total is correlated for a big 'Dog and stronger ATS situations of 7+ points when the favorite fails to score > 27 points. Central Michigan's strength is along the offensive and defensive lines, and a new running game/offensive coordinator from Army takes over and you can bet their will be more pound the ground running game for the Chippewas. Opinion: Central Michigan

UNLV at Hawaii (+3). This total has dipped a few points to 55.5, and both teams are off late-game deflating losses in Week 0 with UNLV blowing a 14-point third quarter lead to lose at home to Memphis 27-21 despite a game-high 460 yards offense by the Rebels. Hawaii rallied from a 23-7 deficit to take the lead late before losing at Stanford 37-27 on a late scoop and score TD by Stanford that left us and Rainbow Warrior (+4) backers beaten. UNLV now travels in a tough spot, but their transfer QB Jackson Arnold did put up 291 passing and 54 rushing yards last week, and both teams look capable of piling up 400+ yards offense. Still, UNLV is overvalued still from last season's results, which included a 38-10 route of the 'Rainbows' at this same spread. Redemption on the Island, where Hawaii is 6-0 ATS against teams coming off a home loss, and the Rainbow Warriors have covered 14 straight home games in Honolulu including three outright wins as 'Dog last season vs. Mountain West foes. Pick: Hawaii.  

Coastal Carolina at West Virginia (-21). Last season, Coastal Carolina gave up more than 200 yards seven times. The Chanticleer have a new head coach and offensive coordinator breaking in a new quarterback with a lower-tier offensive line on a team that was outgained by 127 ypg by Sun Belt teams last seaosn. Rich Rod's West Virginia team should pile up the rushing yards with their new look offense and much improved offensive line as a team I project most improved in the Big 12. Opinion: West Virginia 
 
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FairwayJay is a leading sports betting industry analyst, handicapper, content creator, reporter and credentialed media member based in Las Vegas. He's been covering major sports including college football and NFL plus golf from a betting perspective for more than two decades. FairwayJay is also on the scene for NHL and major sports and poker events plus industry conferences and college football media days. Follow @FairwayJay on X and OSGA for more betting insight and information you can bet on.