College Football Bowl Previews and College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

The college football bowl season kicked off Dec. 17 with 11 bowls before Christmas plus four College Football Playoff first round games. Bettors were cashing in early Christmas gifts from the leading online sportsbooks, and more money on the favorites are causing additional market moves as the additional 21 bowl games kickoff from Dec. 26-31. As we did in the pre-Christmas bowl games, we'll add more picks, analysis and information you can bet on for most matchups as able and shoot for more birdies than bogeys in the bowl games. 

The four most watched and wagered games the next week are the College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

I included Dec. 26 bowl games in the pre-Christmas matchups, and attended and covered the Rate Bowl in Minnesota's 20-17 overtime win over New Mexico. The Lobos had it won and covered with the better Defensive Edge System, but couldn't close it out. Oregon blowing a huge lead in the CFB first four College Football Playoff games before winning 51-34 was another non-covering loser. How our Washington State 34-21 winner turned into a split on the total is another WTF moment leading 14-0 at halftime. 

But we take our 5-3 ATS mark on picks and opinions into the later bowl games along with 3-2 ATS on CFP games plus 1-0 on props and try to adjust to all the chaos, personnel changes and line moves. Thus, more opinions than picks (and Leans) late in the process and posts with eight bowl games on Dec. 27 alone. 

Check back as I update picks and opinions daily and add select analysis as able. We also note that teams with a defensive edge in 3 or 4 of the four key categories are 10-4 ATS in bowls this season. That's the better yards per play and yards per rush defense, points against and total yards allowed. We'll call it the Defensive Edge System (DES) in select analysis below. 

College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

Check out my added coverage at BetOnline including the quarterback profiles and stats of the top quarterbacks in the College Football Playoff. 

Wednesday, Dec. 31

No. 2 Ohio State (-9.5) vs. No. 10 Miami, 43 | Cotton Bowl | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN, WatchESPN (Miami wins 24-14) 

Miami (11-2) earned a big road win at Texas A&M to kickoff the College Football Playoff. The 10-3 win in the first four CFP games saw the Hurricanes top defense hold the Aggies to just 89 rushing yards on 35 attempts. The ‘Canes offense was on the short end of possession time while gaining less than 280 yards offense on 12 first downs, but 175 rushing in that CFP victory led by a top-10 run-blocking offensive line and potential first-round NFL Draft pick at right tackle, Francis Mauigoa. Miami’s 86.8 team Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass-blocking grade ranks No. 3 in the entire nation, and QB Carson Beck’s 2.33 second average time to throw is the third-fastest in the entire FBS. Now Miami will try to pull the upset and tackle Ohio State (12-1), whose dominant defense led the country (217 ypg, 3,8 yards per play) while holding every opponent to 17 points or less - the first team to do so in nearly 50 years. That also included limiting No. 1 Indiana to 13 points in a 13-10 loss in the Big Ten Championship game. Only two teams in college football history have played 13 games and held the opponents to 106 points or less, 1,100 rushing yards or less and 1,700 passing yards or less - the 2025 Ohio State Buckeyes and 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide. Ohio State has nine players ranked by ESPN among the top 50 players in this year’s College Football Playoff, and five of them are on defense ranking in the Top 25.  But the Hurricanes defensive line is also elite, ranking No. 2 in the nation in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass-rush grade behind fellow playoff team Texas Tech. The run defense is also among the best, and Miami features two defensive lineman ranking among the best in the CFP to make this one of the top CFP games to watch as defensive players dominate in a lower-scoring slugfest.

Miami is BetOnline’s biggest liability to win the NCAA title and College Football Playoff, followed by Texas Tech and Georgia. 

Pick: Miami and Under

Update: All bowl game picks and opinions through Dec. 31 are 14-6 ATS. Picks 3-2 ATS and Opinions 11-4 ATS. Also, all College Football Playoff picks and opinions are 5-2 ATS (2-1 picks) into New Year's Day CFP Bowls plus 1-0 team prop.  

Thursday, Jan. 1 

No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 5 Oregon (-2,5), 52.5 | Orange Bowl | 12 p.m. | ESPN, WatchESPN (Oregon wins 23-0)

New Year’s Day kicks off with a pair of 12-1 teams. Texas Tech won the Big 12 title while Oregon could not reach the Big Ten Championship game after winning the conference title last season. The Red Raiders were the most dominant team on the field this season going 11-2 ATS while winning every game by at least 22 points. The TTRR only loss was 26-22 at Arizona State when QB Behren Morton was out with a lingering leg injury. Pressure on the Red Raiders QB will be key for the Ducks, as Morton’s 43.9 PFF grade when under duress ranked No. 105 in the FBS with five turnover-worthy plays. Texas Tech employs a variety of power and counter concept gap run schemes to create explosive plays on the ground. Matchups to watch are in the trenches as Oregon’s offensive line leads the the nation in PFF pass-blocking grade, while the Texas Tech defensive line tops the country in PFF pass-rush grade led by edge defender David Bailey, the nation’s pressure and sack leader. Oregon also leads the FBS with a 95.1 team PFF rushing grade, and the Ducks are also first in EPA per run and second in yards per carry (6.2). Texas Tech leads the country in team PFF run-defense grade (96.4), as it does in every other defensive grade. The Red Raiders easily top the nation in EPA per run allowed led by the best defensive line in the country, along with the best defensive player in college football in linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Oregon has the edge at quarterback with Dante Moore, who has also posted an average time to throw under 2.6 seconds in each of his past six starts. His ability to make quick decisions and deliver the ball accurately and downfield as able against an elite TTRR pass rush will be key. I’m betting on a turnover or two and the Red Raiders to win.

Pick: Texas Tech

No. 1 Indiana (-7) vs. No. 9 Alabama, 48 | Rose Bowl | 4 p.m. | ESPN, WatchESPN (Indiana wins 38-3) 

The story of the season in the CFP is undefeated Indiana (13-0), who has consistently delivered on offense and defense led by the Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. The Hoosiers came through with wins in their four toughest tests away from home winning at Oregon 30-20 and one-score wins at Iowa, Penn State and 13-10 over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. Alabama (11-3) lost at Florida State in Week 1 and then beat 4-straight top 20 teams by mid-October including Georgia. But the Tide narrowly escaped at South Carolina and Auburn, had turnover troubles in losing at Oklahoma and was blown out by Georgia in the SEC Championship game. But ‘Bama bounced back and rallied from a 17-0 deficit to whip Oklahoma 34-24 in Norman in the first round of the College Football Playoff. 

The ‘Tide defense has been disguising coverages in the secondary and rotating safeties at the snap more in the last three games, resulting in an outstanding PFF coverage grade and better results. But Indiana QB Mendoza’s post-snap processing and identifying complex coverages has been exceptional while delivering the ball quickly and accurately. He ranks No. 2 in PFF passing grade when facing disguised coverages. Alabama QB Ty Simpson has struggled in half his games this season against the blitz with sub-par 60.0 PFF passing grade, and Indiana blitzes at a high rate (48%) and also disguises its coverages and blitz packages well. With Alabama’s SEC-worst running game going against a Hoosiers third-ranked PFF run-defense grade, Simpson will be under more pressure to make plays and keep drives alive. The Hoosiers have a huge edge in the running game ranking among the best in college football in EPA per run and PFF run-blocking grade. Pedigree and past performance would usually point you towards Alabama over Indiana, and especially with a TD head start for the underdog Crimson Tide. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is also 11-3 ATS as an underdog, and naysayers will note that Oregon was undefeated and No. 1 in this quarterfinal game last season and lost to Ohio State. But Indiana's dominant defense and DES across the board makes them the preferred play. Barring turnovers and unforeseen penalties and mistakes by the Hoosiers, Indiana should win and advance.   

Opinion: Indiana

No. 3 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, 56.5 | Sugar Bowl | 8 p.m. | ESPN, WatchESPN (Ole Miss wins 39-34)

Another heavyweight bout in the SEC with conference champion Georgia (12-1) tackling Ole Miss (12-1), who rolled over Tulane in the CFP first round 41-10. Mississippi led Georgia 35-26 into the 4th quarter of their Oct. 18 contest, but the Bulldogs rallied for a 43-35 win rushing for 221 yards on 48 carries with more inside zone running success, and another 289 passing yards. A key to that contest was the Dawg defense smothering Rebels star RB Kewan Lacy, who leads the country in forced missed tackles but rushed for a season-low 31 yards on 12 carries. Georgia’s defense played more man coverage in that contest and forced Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss into more missed passes (19-of-36) while posting his season-low PFF passing grade against man coverage. The Ole Miss flaws in the trenches are likely exposed by the Bulldogs defense, who has a top-rated run defense with an elite PFF run-defense grade. The Bulldogs also have the DES edge in all four categories and Georgia has allowed just 11.7 points per game since beating Ole Miss including their last four games allowing just 7 points per game, 226 yards per game and less than 35 rushing yards per game. Mississippi has since lost head coach Lane Kiffin to LSU following the conclusion of the regular season, and the coaching edge in this matchup is the widest of the four CFP quarterfinal games. When the clock strikes midnight near the conclusion of this contest, Georgia will likely be on their way to the CFP semifinals and the transfer portal opens Jan. 2 with Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss hoping he’s granted a 6th year of eligibility to play college football. 

Lean: Ole Miss and Under

Bowl Games

(Non CFP). Betting lines and college football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites. All times Eastern. Noted line changes in 1-2 days ahead of bowl. 

Sat., Dec. 27 

Military Bowl - East Carolina vs. Pittsburgh (-13), O/U 51.5
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - Annapolis, MD | 11 am | ESPN 

This line is a one-way freight train on Pitt (8-4), up more than a TD including 2.5 points in the past day and the total down 1.5 points. So many personnel and portal changes, along with more on the ECU (8-4) side plus coaching and coordinator changes. Pitt is playing without their best offensive and defensive player, but the Panthers have the DES edge, including a top-tier rush defense allowing just 102 rushing ypg at 3.0 yards per rush. Can't give out a bad number this late to post, so lean the Pitt Panthers way knowing too they won 7-of-8 games by 15 or more points this season. 

Pinstripe Bowl - Penn State vs. Clemson (-3), O/U 47
Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY | 12 pm | ABC

A pair of top 5 teams to start the season finish in a disappointing bowl. Penn State (6-6) won their final three games to finish 3-6 in the Big Ten. A major disappointment for sure while also losing their starting quarterback Drew Allar and firing head coach James Franklin during the season. However,  Clemson (7-5) was the clear favorite to win the ACC. The Tigers started 1-3 (0-2 in ACC) and never had a chance before winning their final four games. No less than five starters have opted-out for the Nittany Lions, but far more injuries and opt-outs for Clemson and coach Dabo Swinney. With Penn State holding the DES edge and more acclimated to the freezing temps in the closing stretch of the season, the Lions are more capable of roaring as 'Dog. Trend: Big Ten has won 8-straight Pinstripe Bowls over ACC. 

Opinion: Penn State

Fenway Bowl - Connecticut vs. Army (-9), O/U 42.5
Fenway Park - Boston, MA | 2:15 pm | ESPN 

Game total has dipped 2-points, but spread has zoomed a full TD from opener and stabilized in recent days. Many opt-outs and a 4th string QB playing for UCONN (9-3), who lost each of their three games this season in overtime. They also lost their starting quarterback and head coach Jim Mora, Jr. to Colorado State. Army (6-6) has a 242 ypg rushing attack, and Military teams are annually one of the best bowl bets, now 18-3 ATS the past 12 years. The Black Knights come off a narrow 17-16 loss to Navy in America's Game, but no opt-out or chemistry concerns for the upperclassman heavy military men. 

Opinion: Army and Lean Under

Pop-Tarts Bowl - No. 22 Georgia Tech vs. No. 12 BYU (-3.5), O/U 56
Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL | 3:30 pm | ABC

The BYU Cougars (11-2) made it to the Big 12 Championship game before losing a second time to Texas Tech. But BYU is still motivated to finish strong with few opt-outs after missing out on the College Football Playoff. Georgia Tech (9-3) blew a golden opportunity to play in the ACC Championship game, as the bumbling Bees Yellow Jackets lost three of its final four games of the regular season with their only win by 2-points over last place Boston College. The Rambling Wreck was outgained by all six opponents that made a bowl game this season. Now Tech is without their offensive coordinator to call plays for QB Haynes King. How the heck is the Wreck from Tech going to have success against a top-tier BYU pass defense with BYU holding DES edges across the board?

Pick: BYU

Arizona Bowl - Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State (-4.5), O/U 40.5
Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ | 4:30 p.m. | The CW Network

Line down 1.5 points on Fresno State (8-4), who allowed the second-fewest points in the Mountain West with their sharp head coach formerly of USC as defensive coordinator. The Bulldogs qualify in the DES, and should slow the Redhawks attack missing their starting QB with backups completing less than 50% passes. Miami (7-6) made it to the MAC Championship Game before losing a rematch to Western Michigan. 

Lean: Fresno State 

New Mexico Bowl - San Diego State vs. No. 25 North Texas (-7), O/U 52.5
University Stadium - Albuquerque, NM | 5:45 pm | ESPN 

San Diego State (9-3) was one of the best money-makers in college football this season going 9-3 ATS. The Aztecs also hold all the DES edge in this matchup against a deflated North Texas (11-2) team that lost the American Athletic Conference Championship game, and thus their shot to make the College Football Playoff. The Mean Green did feature the No. 1 yards per game (507) offense in college football this season led by the nation's leading passer, Drew Mestemaker, who will be leaving after this game to greener pastures likely in the SEC despite his head coach already leaving for Oklahoma State. 
 
Opinion: San Diego State and Lean Over

Gator Bowl - No. 19 Virginia vs. Missouri (-3.5), O/U 44 
EverBank Stadium - Jacksonville, FL | 7:30 pm | ABC 

Little coverage of a much improved Virginia (10-3) team following three-straight losing seasons to make it to the ACC Championship game with the 'Hoos defense holding their final four opponents to season-low yardage. But a disappointing overtime loss to Duke and year-end finish (2-2) for the Cavaliers leaves more questions than answers. Missouri (8-4) started strong before the rigors of SEC play caught up. The superior strength of schedule included one-score losses to Vanderbilt and CFP Alabama, and two other losses to CFP Texas A&M and low-scoring defeat to defensive dominator Oklahoma. Tigers superior rushing attack (235/game) and DES edges across the board plus a +1.5 yards per play differential advantage makes Missouri your money play despite QB Pribula opting-out. 

Opinion: Missouri 

Texas Bowl - LSU vs. No. 21 Houston (-1.5), O/U 42
NRG Stadium - Houston, TX | 9:15 pm | ESPN

LSU (7-5) underachieved this season, but holds the DES edges across the board in this matchup against Houston (9-3), who overachieved while going 8-4 ATS. The LSU Tigers played the superior schedule while posting stronger defensive numbers.  But many changes to the Bayou Bengals coaching and chemistry under early-season Heisman candidate QB Nussmeier, who has opted-out along with many of his mates. Houston has the regional site edge, chemistry and motivation for 10 wins with transfer QB Weigman having his finest college season. 

Opinion: Houston

Update: A 5-1 ATS day on Dec. 27 Bowls picks and opinions (2-2 Leans), and all bowl picks and opinions are 10-4 ATS plus 3-2 ATS on College Football Playoff games ahead of bowls Dec. 29 and CFP quarterfinals Dec. 31 - Jan. 1. 

Monday, Dec. 29 

Birmingham Bowl - App State vs. Georgia Southern (-8.5), O/U 59.5
Protective Stadium - Birmingham, AL | 2 pm | ESPN 

Opinion: Appalachian State

Tues., Dec. 30 

Independence Bowl - Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (-9.5), O/U 51.5
Independence Stadium - Shreveport, La. | 2 pm | ESPN 

Sun Belt entrant Coastal Carolina (6-6) is playing in their 6th straight bowl game, but the Chantaliers enter on a downer going 0-3 SU/ATS their final three games including a pair of 40+ blowout losses. Louisiana Tech (7-5) has taken money from the opener, but the Bulldogs only won 2 games away from home this season against last place UTEP and season finale against an average Missouri State team that piled up more than 400 yards offense on LT. Risky big favorite. 

Lean: Coastal Carolina

Music City Bowl - Illinois vs. Tennessee (-2.5), 61.5
Nissan Stadium - Nashville, TN | 5:30 pm | ESPN

Opinion: Tennessee

Alamo Bowl - TCU vs. No. 16 USC (-6.5), O/U 55.5
Alamodome - San Antonio, TX | 9 pm | ESPN 

Opinion: Over

Wednesday, Dec. 31 

See more New Year's Eve Bowls with my insight and analysis at BetOnline. 

ReliaQuest Bowl - No. 23 Iowa vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt (-5), O/U 47
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL | 12 pm | ESPN 

Iowa (8-4) qualifies under our Defensive Edge System (DES), as the Hawkeys allow just 4.5 defensive yards per play, 16 points per game, 3.6 yards per rush and 279 total yards. That led them to a 4-0 ATS 'Dog log this season and 7-0 ATS vs. > .500 opponents. That includes holding CFP entrants Indiana and Oregon to 20 and 18 points in close defeats with those two top teams very similar stats to Vanderbilts 39 points per game  and 468 yards per game offense. A rare bowl game outside the CFP with both teams bringing their best with a full compliment of players and few opt-outs.

Opinion: Iowa

Sun Bowl - Arizona State vs. Duke (-3), O/U 49.5
Sun Bowl - El Paso, TX | 2 pm | CBS 

Tougher choice here with Arizona State (8-4) playing without a number of key players including QB Sam Leavitt, who's injuried and in the transfer portal. Big dropoff to QB Jeff Sims, but that's been factored into the line and the Sun Devils were still 2-0 ATS with Sims starting. ASU qualifies under the DES with the superior defense and stronger schedule while Duke's defense allows 420 ypg and 30 points per game as the fortunate ACC champion that finished 8-5 this season. Arizona State coach Dillingham is staying in Tempe, where his Sun Devils are a money-making 24-12 ATS under his leadership.

Opinion: Arizona State 

Citrus Bowl - No. 8 Michigan vs. 13 Texas (-7), O/U 48
Camping World Stadium - Orlando, FL | 3 pm | ABC 

Texas (9-3) was playing better down the stretch than Michigan (9-3) before sh*t hit the fan in Ann Arbor for the Wolverines clueless coach. Both teams feature top defenses that can dominate. And both the Longhors and Wolverines have plenty of players opting out with Texas missing more defensive stalwarts. Still, it's QB Manning against Underwood, and preference when facing top defenses is to QBM and the Longhorns noting Underwood and the Wolverine's offensive struggles against Oklahoma, Ohio State and even USC in defeat. Michigan is taking money by game day from +8 to +6.5 in spots. 

Lean: Texas

Las Vegas Bowl - Nebraska vs. No. 15 Utah (-14), O/U 50.5
Allegiant Stadium - Las Vegas, NV | 3:30 pm | ESPN 

New Year's Eve in Las Vegas, where I'm sitting to see Utah (10-2) without longtime coach Kyle Wittingham, who's off to Ann Arbor to be the new coach at Michigan. The Ute's strong, balanced offense averaged 475 yards per game and 39 points game, but is playing without two key offensive lineman who are turning pro. Line dipped towards Nebraska (7-5), who plays without QB Raiola, who will take more money elsewhere entering the transfer portal. The season stats showed the Huskers with a 45 ypg better defense, but Utes allowed less than 20 points per game - 5 ppg better than Nebraska. 

Lean: Utah 

Fri., Jan. 2 

Updated picks and opinions below provided on New Year's Eve, and any additional stats and analysis to be added game day.

Armed Forces Bowl - Rice vs. Texas State (-11.5), O/U 59.5
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX | 1 pm | ESPN (Texas State wins 41-10)

Texas State (6-6) has taken tons of money against Rice (5-7), who has a -189 point differential and accepted a bowl bid after other eligible teams declined invitations. Texas State closed a 19-point favorite. 

Lean: Texas State   

Liberty Bowl - Cincinnati vs. Navy (-7), O/U 54.5
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium - Memphis, TN | 4:30 pm | ESPN (Navy wins 35-13)

Total surged by game day to 58. 

Cincinnati (7-5) started 7-1 before losing their final four games (3 by double-digits) to the top Big 12 teams. The Bearcats run defense (184/game) allowed nearly 220 rushing yards per game over their final four games/losses. They will get pounded at the point of attack by Navy (10-2), who averages 49 rushing attempts per game and a nation-best 273 rushing yards per game vs FBS foes. Difference with this stronger Navy team is veteran QB Horvath can pass more averaging nearly 140 yards per game. No opt-outs for the military men, but Bearcats boys are leaving Cincinnati causing a huge line adjustment. Most sought after QB Sorsby is in the transfer portal and out, along with numerous defensive backs. Navy has some solid American Conference wins plus America's Game win over Army to finish the season. Navy's only two losses to explosive North Texas and Notre Dame, and Midshipmen have covered 7-straight bowl games.  

Pick: Navy (upgraded by game day)

Duke's Mayo Bowl - Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-3), O/U 53
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC | 8 pm | ESPN 

Even Wake Forest (8-4) running attack (146/game) can have success against a Mississippi State (5-7) run defense that allows an average of 5.1 yards per rush and 201 rushing yards per game - worst of all power program bowl teams. Bulldogs just 1-6 SU vs. winning teams this season, yes in the rugged SEC, but MSU missing no less than 10 players to the portal and Wake Forest applies to defensive edges (DES) across the board for strong season under first-year head coach Dickert in Winston-Salem. 

Pick: Wake Forest  (upgraded by game day)

Holiday Bowl - SMU vs. No. 17 Arizona (-3), O/U 52
Snapdragon Stadium - San Diego, CA | 8 pm | FOX 

Updated game day SMU favorite -1.5. 

SMU (8-4) taking some money against Arizona (9-3), and both teams are top 15 in EPA per play creating more offense that the game total suggests with solid QB's and prolific passers able to move the ball. SMU took money despite a putrid pass defense allowing 288 passing yards per game - worst in the country with fellow bowler Duke.

Pick: Over and Opinion SMU 

Update: All CFB Bowls (non CFP) picks and opinions finish 17-7 ATS (picks 5-3, opinions 12-4). Leans 7-5 ATS. All College Football Playoff picks and opinions through quarterfinals 6-3 ATS (2-2 picks) plus 1-0 team props. All Bowls picks & opinions including CFP 23-10 ATS (69.7%). 

CFP Semifinals 

No. 10 Miami (-3) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss, 52 | Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Ariz.) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN, WatchESPN - Jan. 8 

Pick: Miami

No. 1 Indiana (-4) vs. No. 5 Oregon, 46.5 | Peach Bowl (Atlanta) | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN, WatchESPN - Jan. 9 

Current Leans: Oregon and Under 

Semifinal Picks posted Jan. 3. 

Check back daily for bowl game updates and analysis, and follow @FairwayJay and @OffShoreGaming on X for more updates on College Football Playoff, sports betting news and information you can bet on. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.