Previews and picks for Xmas Bowls

The college football bowl season kicked off Dec. 17, and there are 11 bowl games before Christmas Day plus four College Football Playoff games Dec. 19-20. I'm chipping in updated odds and bowl Picks and Opinions on select games starting Dec. 19, including the College Football Playoff first round games. 

I'll be updating this page through Christmas and including four more bowl games on Dec. 26, and then adding more bowl game updates on a separate piece for the 20 bowl games Dec. 27-Dec. 31. 

That does not including the Cotton Bowl Dec. 31 that kicks off the College Football Playoff quarterfinals with defending national champion Ohio State battling the Miami/Texas A&M winner. The three other other CFP quarterfinals are Jan. 1 in the Orange, Rose and Sugar Bowls. 

There are four more bowl games Jan. 2 before the CFP national semi's Jan. 8-9 for the Fiesta and Peach bowls. The National Championship Game Monday, Jan. 19 from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami and we'll shoot for another big game winner as we identified in the 2019 national championship game with Clemson (+6) rolling over the Tide and trouncing Alabama, 44-16. 

Select stats and ATS info from the Playbook Sports College Football Bowl Guide and other informed sources, where you can check out Mark Lawrence and other handicappers picks and NCAA football bowls insight at Gamblers World and note the line moves on some early bowl games and do your best to find the best odds.

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College Bowls Tips And Strategies

Be sure to check out my update from recent seasons on betting strategies and tips on betting the bowls. I'll be updating more games with select game analysis and picks with information you can bet on, noting personnel and betting lines changes that impact the bowls and betting. So check back daily as the 2025 bowl season progresses into the New Year and the national championship game. 

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College Football Bowl Matchups, Odds And Picks

College football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern (ET) and betting favorites (-) listed. For bettors interested in reduced juice sportsbook options, checkout BetAnything and Heritage Sports, which also offers cash back bonuses getting the 'most squeeze for your juice." All times ET. 

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl - Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan (-3), O/U 47.5
Brooks Stadium - Conway, S.C. | 11 am | ESPN 

Two of the most surprising Bowl entrants with Kennesaw State (10-3) winning conference USA after 2-wins last season in their first year competing in the FBS. Western Michigan (9-4) won their first MAC title since 2016 and was picked to finish mid-pack this season. They started 0-3 this season, but pushed forward with their stronger running game and defense. The Broncos have a stronger SOS than the Owls, and the point of attack edge to prevail with a 195 rushing ypg against the Owls defense allowing 412 ypg at 5.6 yards per play including 184 rushing yards per game. 

Opinion: Western Michigan 

Gasparilla Bowl - Memphis vs. NC State (-3.5), O/U 57
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL | 2:30 pm | ESPN

Memphis (8-4) was a favorite to win the AAC and considered a
playoff contender. They started 6-0 including a win over Arkansas from the SEC, and the Tigers coach left ahead of this bowl game to take the Arkansas coaching vacancy. Memphis'  first loss of the season was without their starting quarterback. Three straight close losses to finish the season against better AAC teams was a downer. NC State (7-5) struggled on defense allowing 500 or more yards in three of its last five games, and nearly that many yards to bowl teams this season. Memphis was +125 yard edge in defensive yardage against bowl teams this season. 

Pick: Memphis 

FCS Semifinal - Montana at Montana State (-6), 54

Bonus coverage at BetOnline, where I previewed Part 2 of "The Brawl of the Wild" between Montana and Montana State. Since posted along with a totals pick, and added an update on X about the weather, the total has been slammed down from 58 to 54 and Montana State is up to a 6-point favorite. 

College Football Playoff preview including CFP first round games Dec. 19-20. I updated coverage with first round picks and opinions with analysis in the CFP preview. There are plenty of NFL prospects to watch in the Alabama-Oklahoma first round game to kickoff the CFB Friday night.

Mon., Dec. 22 

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - Washington State vs. Utah State (-1), O/U 50.5 
Albertsons Stadium - Boise, Idaho | 2 pm | ESPN

Utah State (6-6) moves to the revamped Pac-12 next season to join Washington State (6-6). The Cougars defense has held 8-straight opponents to 24 points or less entering this bowl including three bowl teams Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison with all eight of those games staying under the total. 

Opinion: Washington State and Under 

Tues., Dec. 23 

Boca Raton Bowl - Toledo vs. Louisville (-6.5), O/U 45
Flagler Credit Union Stadium - Boca Raton, FL | 2 pm | ESPN 

Toledo coach Candle departed for Connecticut, and the Rockets are without some players too including injured starting QB Gleason. Three key defensive starters are out from a Rockets defense that allowed just 267 yards per game at 4.0 yards per play - both top 3 in the country, plus top 5 with 7.4 tackles for loss per game. However, Louisville has a number of injured players at premium positions including both top WR and LB out due to surgery. Others have opted out and sitting for NFL Draft prep including two defensive lineman. The Cardinals are 6-1 this season when they force at least one turnover. Toledo's troubles with penalties including more than 8 per game - among the very worst in the nation. All the injuries, opt-outs and changes  including coaching creates some chaos and far less continuity. It's a more difficult handicap in many games making for less confidence in any strong opinion or pick.

Lean: Toledo 

New Orleans Bowl - Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky (-3), O/U 58
Caesars Superdome - New Orleans, La. | 5:30 pm | ESPN 

Line has dipped to WKU -2 a day before kickoff taking this from an opinion to lean, but more support on Southern Miss. WKU Hilltoppers freshman QB Tisdale took over for injured starter and passed at least 34 times in 4-of-5 starts, 70%+ completions in three, but at least one INT in all five starts. Southern Miss has the stronger defensive front 7 to force more mistakes, and Eagles offensive coordinator Blake Anderson will call plays as the new head coach after HC Huff departed for Memphis. 

Lean: Southern Miss 

Frisco Bowl - Ohio vs. UNLV (-6.5), O/U 65
Ford Center at The Star - Frisco, Texas | 9 pm | ESPN

Line opened initially UNLV -4 and the Rebels have taken the money. Ohio head coach is out the the DC takes over. UNLV features a strong, balanced offense and the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year in QB Anthony Colandrea, who leads a top-15 passing attack and offense averaging 453 yards per game (nearly 200 rushing ypg). Ohio's defense won't slow them down much, but the Bobcats offense will run the ball often and with a duel QB to control the ball and posssession time against a deficient UNLV defense that is among the worst in the country in EPA per rush. UNLV's defense was poor much of the year but improved some late before getting beaten by Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game for the third straight year and allowing 460 yards offense to the Broncos. (131st in EPA per rush). Total is up, but we're not going to bite despite cashing 'overs' in UNLV games earlier in the season including 51-48 over Air Force and 40-35 loss to New Mexico. 

Lean: UNLV    

Wed., Dec. 24

Hawaii Bowl - Hawaii vs Cal (-1.5), O/U 52.5
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI | 8 pm | ESPN

Update since pick and analysis: Hawaii is 1-point favorite on Dec. 22. Post game update: Hawaii wins 35-31 on a last-second 22-yard TD pass. 

Under head coach Timmy Chang, the former Rainbow Warriors quarterback, Hawaii (8-4) has improved on defense each of the last four years. Hawaii is also it's best in Honolulu, where they host this game on their home field. The Rainbow Warriors are 9-0 as 'Dog in their last nine home games, and aware they play this game without their top receiver. Cal (7-5) beat two ACC ranked teams, but fired longtime Bears coach after losing The Big Game to Stanford. Bears travel plus questions about personnel and motivation has us siding with Hawaii. 

Opinion: Hawaii    

All picks and opinions through Dec. 24 bowls 3-2 ATS (3-1 sides). Plus College Football Playoff first round picks and opinions 3-2 plus 1-0 props. 

Check back for additional game analysis, stats, upgrades and Dec. 26 bowl games with importance of monitoring opt-outs, line moves, personnel changes and motivation. 

Fri., Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl - Central Michigan vs. Northwestern (-11), O/U 43 
Ford Field - Detroit, MI | 1 pm | ESPN

Central Michigan (7-5) went 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS vs. MAC opponents, but 0-4 SU vs. bowl teams. The Chippewas were -23 yards per game overall vs. their opponents, and they'll likely struggle to catchup if behind by margin with a bottom-15 passing attack averaging 156 yards per game. Chips QB Flores returns for this bowl game (out since Week 9), and CMU's 41 rushing attempts per game average is top-20 in the country. Flores has 103 of the 522 rushing attempts by CMU this season, but only 27 pass attempts the entire season. Northwestern (6-6) isn't much better passing (181 ypg), but the Wildcats project to have edges in both rushing and passing, and Northwestern has few opt-outs for the bowl game and the 'Cats played a much tougher schedule (No. 36 vs CMU 128, Sagarin). 

Lean: Central Michigan 

Rate Bowl - New Mexico vs. Minnesota (-1.5), 42.5
Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ | 4:30 pm | ESPN

I have a media credential to attend this game with my alma mater (Minnesota) on a 8-game bowl winning streak - longest active streak in college football. Six of those wins are under current head coach P.J. Fleck. This is the best bowl matchup of the day. I did cover and attend the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at this site in 2023 to see a high-scoring Kansas win over UNLV. The Gophers (7-5) went 7-0 at home with two come-from-behind close wins over non-bowlers Rutgers and Purdue. Goldy Gopher was awful on the road with blowout losses to Ohio State, Oregon and Iowa, a close loss at Northwestern, and a double-digit loss to Cal, who just lost to Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. New Mexico (9-3) easily covered as big 'Dog vs. two Big Ten teams at Michigan and crushing UCLA on the road. First-year Lobos head coach Jason Eck did a terrific job leading the Lobos and earned Mountain West Coach of the Year honors. Eck and his staff have many ties to Minnesota having coached Minnesota State and other smaller schools previously. The Gophers scored and allowed 23 points per game this season, but scored only 19.4 points per game vs. FBS opponents. The offense was awful on the road except against Northwestern, and Minnesota was 1-5 vs. bowl teams and outgained by five of those teams. In fact, the Gophers were out-gained by 9-of-10 FBS opponents this season by an average of 145 yards per game. The Lobos defense was very solid against average to sub-par offenses like the Gophers this season, and overall allowed just 3.4 yards per rush and held opponents 34 yards per game below their average led by top tackler and co-MWC Defensive Player of the Year, LB Jaxton Eck (coaches son). New Mexico went 5-1 ATS vs. fellow bowl teams this season. 

Opinion: New Mexico  

First Responder Bowl - Florida Int'l vs. UT San Antonio (-6), 60
Gerald J. Ford Stadium - Dallas, TX | 8 pm | ESPN

Under head coach Jeff Traylor, UTSA (6-6) is playing in their sixth straight bowl game. But the Roadrunners will play this bowl game without 3 DL’s and both starting CB’s, but still have their top 7 tacklers.The Roadrunners are 39-3 ATS in games as a 6-point favorite or less under Traylor. UT San Antonio can score, starting with 24 points in their opener at CFP entrant Texas A&M and rolling up 36, 48, 61, 58 against other opponents plus 48 points in a win over AAC champion and bowler Tulane. Florida International (7-5) was lit up by both Kennesaw State and Connecticut for 45 and 51 points and 500+ yards. The depleted defense and secondary should get picked apart by UTSA quarterback Owen McCown, a Dallas native who had a season-high 370 passing yards and 4 TD's against stronger Tulane. 

Opinion: UTSA and Over

You can bet on it.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.