College Football Bowl Preview -- Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Minnesota Wants to Slow Things to a Crawl

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Dec 28th, 2021 7:34:09 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Minnesota Golden Gophers will try to slow things down as they take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks.


if you have studied the Minnesota Golden Gophers at all, you know that an essential part of their game plan is to keep the ball on the ground and control the action. So it would stand to reason that the challenge awaiting the West Virginia Mountaineers is to force them out of that strategy and make them put the ball in the air.

BetOnline customers who have been Big 10 observers know that this will put pressure on Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan, but all of this might be much easier said than done.

The bigger challenge might belong to West Virginia's offense, which is without its best running back and faces a defensive unit that is ranked fourth in the entire nation.

The Guaranteed Rate Bowl, which takes place between these representatives of the Big 12 and Big Ten, will take place on Tuesday night at 10:15 p.m. Eastern time at Chase Field in Phoenix. This is primarily a baseball stadium, and serves as home of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Minnesota had a record of 8-4, with a 7-4 mark against the pointspread, and in the season opener they were pretty competitive with Ohio State, losing by 14 points but giving them a bit of a scare. They registered victories over Purdue and Wisconsin, the latter of which knocked the Badgers out of contention for the Big Ten championship game. But they also lost, inexplicably, to Bowling Green and Illinois.

West Virginia was 6-6, both straight-up and against the points, and maybe their best result was a three-point loss to Oklahoma. It was not a banner year for third-year head coach Neal Brown.

As we mentioned, Minnesota is primarily concerned with controlling the football on the ground. And we are not kidding when we say that. In fact, they ran the ball 67.4% of the time this season, and that was the fourth highest rate in the country. Only the service academies β€” Air Force, Army and Navy β€” ran the ball more frequently than they did.

West Virginia was a little more balanced in its play selection, but they are going to be handicapped in the backfield. Leddie Brown, who supplied 70% of their rushing yards, has chosen to skip this game as he prepares for the NFL draft. So they are left with some alternatives that are somewhat unproven.

In the college football bowl odds that have been placed on the Guaranteed Rate Bowl by the folks at BetOnline, the Gophers are favored:

Minnesota Golden Gophers -5.5 (-113)
West Virginia Mountaineers +5.5 (-107)

Over 44.5 Points -110
Under 44.5 Points -110

When it comes to West Virginia's offensive prospects, they are going to have a hard time whichever way they choose to go. QB Jarret Doege, the Bowling Green transfer, has been more than servicable (65.4%, 2908 yards), but Minnesota makes it tough to throw (allowing just 55% completions).

And they are even better against the run, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. Opponents funnel their efforts toward the pass; Minnesota faces the fewest rushing plays per game of any team in the nation (29).

The system seems to work for Fleck's team, as the Gophers lost two pretty good backs -Mo Ibrahim and Bryce Williams - to injuries, but still continue to chug along with the duo of Ky Thomas (680 yards) and Mar'Kiese Irving (570).

If West Virginia were to be successful in slowing down the Gophers, they can make Tanner Morgan do more than he may have intended. Morgan, a fifth-year senior who's coming back again in 2022, has just ten TD passes and 1935 yards, but his yards-per-attempt is pretty healthy (8.2).

Matt Simon will do the play-calling for Minnesota here after the firing of offensive coordinator Mike Sanford. But assuming that position next season (and on campus now) is Kirk Ciarocca, who was an assistant with the Gophers from 2017-2019. And he is coming straight from West Virginia, so he wil have some insights, without question.

To us, it looks as if Minnesota may be able to do what they would like to do, which leads us to believe they are the side to play. We also like the UNDER.

BetOnline gives you the chance to get the most out of your college football bowl experience by offering Prop Builder, so you have a lot of angles to choose from. And then, at the top of the interface, click "Live Betting," which will open up real-time wagering after the kickoff....... They have a lot of options for you to make deposits; simply use your credit card or take advantage of many crypto options, including, of course, Bitcoin!


Sign-up for the OSGA Newsletter!

Every week get news and updates, exclusive offers and betting tips delivered right to you email inbox.