Preview and Picks for NCAA Football Week 7

College football Top 25 was turned sideways this past Saturday when No. 3 Penn State lost on the road to winless UCLA, 42-37. Both preseason No. 1 and No. 2 Texas and Penn State have fallen out of the AP Top 25 poll. Hard to imagine the Red River Rivalry game this Saturday is not a Top 25 matchup, but Texas is still a slight favorite over Oklahoma with the game played in Dallas. 

Our Top 25 picks and opinions hit the skids the past two weeks after going 9-2 ATS in Weeks 2-3. Three Top 25 matchups this Saturday, Oct. 11 with two in the Big Ten and one SEC. 

- No. 1 Ohio State at No. 17 Illinois
- No. 7 Indiana at No. 3 Oregon 
- No. 8 Alabama at No. 14 Missouri 

Also, heavy preseason ACC favorite Clemson remains outside the Top 25 having fallen out prior to October, and not even getting votes. So three of the top-5 teams in the pre-season AP Top 25 have fallen out of the rankings and poll. 

Fifteen (15) teams remain underfeated

SEC - Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Big Ten - Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana
ACC - Miami, Georgia Tech
Big 12 - BYU, Texas Tech
American (AAC) - Navy, Memphis, North Texas
Mountain West - UNLV 

I'll be adding more picks and opinions later in the week following more stats and matchup analysis. Top 25 rankings, games and odds below and noted line moves and adjustments from college football Week 7 opening lines and totals. 

Top 25 Games and Week 7 Odds

Betting lines and college football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Current point spread on favorites plus game totals. All times ET. Top 25 matchups in bold. 

Check back by Friday each week as we add more Picks and Opinions with select analysis, stats and information you can bet on. Early week picks posted.

Saturday, Oct. 11 

(One Top 25 team playing Friday, No. 24 South Florida)

No. 1 Ohio State (-16) at No. 17 Illinois, 50 | 12 pm | FOX
No. 2 Miami | Bye  
No. 3 Oregon (-7.5) vs No. 7 Indiana, 54.5 | 3:30 pm | CBS  
No. No. 4 Ole Miss (-32) vs Washington State, 59 | 12:45 pm | SEC Network  
No. 5 Texas A&M (-8.5) vs Florida, 46 | 7 pm | ESPN 
No. 6 Oklahoma vs Texas (-3), 42.5 (Dallas) | 3:30 pm | ABC
No. 8 Alabama (-3.5) at No. 14 Missouri, 53 | 12 pm | CBS 
No. 9 Texas Tech (-14.5) vs Kansas , 60.5 | 7:30 pm | FOX
No. 10 Georgia (-3.5) at Auburn, 46.5 | 7:30 pm | ABC
No. 11 LSU (-10) vs South Carolina, 45 | 7:45 pm | SEC Netword
No. 12 Tennessee (-13.5) vs Arkansas, 69 | 4:15 pm | SEC Network
No. 13 Georgia Tech (-14.5) vs Virginia Tech, 55.5 | 3:30 pm | ACC Network
No. 15 Michigan at USC (-2.5), 56 | 7:30 pm | NBC
No. 16 Notre Dame (-22.5) vs NC State, 62.5 | 3:30 pm | Peacock 
No. 18 BYU (-2.5) at Arizona, 47.5 | 8 pm | ESPN2
No. 19 Virginia | Bye
No. 20 Vanderbilt | Bye
No. 21 Arizona State at Utah (-5.5), 49 | 10:15 pm | ESPN  
No. 22 Iowa State (-5) at Colorado, 52 | 3:30 pm, ESPN
No. 23 Memphis | Bye
No. 24 South Florida at North Texas (-2.5), 66.5 | 7:30 pm Friday | ESPN2
No. 25 Florida State (-9.5) vs Pittsburgh, 58 | 12 pm | ESPN 

Only 3 teams received first place votes again this week, Ohio State (40), Oregon (21) and Miami (5). 

Other teams receiving votes: Cincinnati, Texas, Penn State, Utah, Nebraska, USC, UNLV, North Texas, TCU, Washington, Mississippi State, Navy, Louisville, Auburn. 

Other notable games on Sat., Oct. 4 

- Northwestern at Penn State (-22), 48
- Iowa (-4) at Wisconsin, 37
- Nebraska (-5.5) at Maryland, 47
- Clemson (-14) at Boston College, 54
- Air Force at UNLV (-7), 67.5 

Teams scoring at least 40 points per game, FBS opponents only: USC (48.4), Tennessee (45.8), Texas Tech (44.0), Oregon (43.5), North Texas (43.3), Vanderbilt (42.8), Indiana (41.5), Missouri (41.3), Notre Dame (40.8), Virginia (40.6), Ole Miss (40.6). Next teams > 35 ppg, Memphis, Florida State, Nebraska, Alabama, Georgia, Pitt, TCU, Penn State, Baylor, UNLV.

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NCAA Football Week 7 Top 25 Picks

Ohio State at Illinois - Teams did not meet last season, but Buckeyes have won 8-straight over Illinois and 11 in a row in Champaign. Line clicked up from Buckeyes -15 to -16, but I disagree. Can wait and see if 17 pops. Opinion: Illinois 

Alabama at Missouri - The line ticked down from -4 to -3.5 on the road favorite Crimson 'Tide, and total down from 56.5 to 53. Both teams were ranked in last year's 'Bama beatdown 34-0 with Missouri's offense gaining a season-low 239 yards and doubled-up by Alabama (486).  

Indiana at Oregon - These two Big Ten contenders did not play last season. First meeting since 2004. Both teams power ratings are up sharply, and Indiana's is at all-time high. Ducks offense joins Indiana and USC among the most explosive and  balanced offenses in the country with Oregon averaging 236 rushing and 267 passing per game at 7.3 yards per play and 43 points per game. The Hoosiers match them at 260 rushing and 243 passing at 6.9 yards per play and 41 points per game. Line has dipped from Ducks -8.5 to- 7.5. Total is too low, despite stronger defenses and stats in results. Opinion: Over 

Michigan at USC - Two 4-1 teams and bet this one now on the Trojans, who enter off a bye having blown a game at Illinois prior in 34-32 loss. Line opened USC -2 in Las Vegas Sunday, and total is up 54.5 to 56. The Trojans are now the highest-scoring team in college football, averaging 48.4 points per game. Southern Cal also leads the country averaging 8.5 yards per play on offense while rushing for 227 ypr and passing for 338 yards per game. Pick: USC 

Texas vs. Oklahoma - The Longhorns (3-2) go from preseason No. 1 to out of the AP Top 25 with the Sooners (5-0) able to end their potential CFB Playoff hopes today in Dallas. Status of Oklahoma QB John Mateer known at game town following recent surgery on his throwing hand. Probably best not to rush him and risk more injury, as the final five opponents on Oklahoma’s schedule are all currently ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll. Sooners QB Michael Hawkins started last week, and also last year’s Red River Rivalry (one of four starts he made in place of Jackson Arnold). He faced pressure on 50% of his dropbacks while completing just 4 of 12 passes with 6 sacks versus pressure. The adjusted run-game data favors the Longhorns stronger defensive front with the Sooners also missing an offensive lineman. Oklahoma's defense also blitzes at a top-20 rate nationally, and Longhorns QB Arch Manning ranks last in the SEC against the blitz. Sharp football stats research notes that the Longhorns are also just 4 for 34 on third-and-long attempts, an 11.8% conversion rate which ranks 119th. The total is now at 44.5, and matchups suggest edges to the defenses. Lean: Oklahoma and Under 

Non-Top 25

Air Force at UNLV - This will be a shootout on the indoor turf at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Air Force is 1-4 without a win over an FBS team while losing week after week in shootouts with their deficient defense allowing 531 yards per game - bottom five in the country and a nation-worst 8.6 yards per play. But Air Force has a strong, balanced offense averaging 240 rushing and 237 passing yards per game at 6.9 yards per play. Compare that to undefeated UNLV (5-0), 169 rushing and 269 passing at 5.8 yards per play. Rebels defense is also sub-par allowing 268 ypg at 5.6 yards per play. Rebels returned two blocked punts for TD's last Saturday in the snow in Laramie while generating a season-low 255 yards and getting out-gained by 100 yards in a 31-17 UNLV win. All five Air Force games have gone 'over' the total. This total is much higher, but likely not high enough. Opinions: Air Force (+7) and over 67.5 in another entertaining show in Las Vegas. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.