Preview and Picks for NCAA Football Week 5

Week 5 of the 2025 college football season features four Top 25 matchups including a pair of must watch and wager games in the Big Ten and SEC. 

No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 6 Oregon in a rematch of last season's Big Ten Championship game won by the Ducks, and No. 23 Illinois battles No. 21 USC in Champagne. The biggest games in the SEC include No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia, and No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Mississippi. 

Fairways Forecast chips in more college football previews, stats, insight and select Week 5 picks and opinions with information you can bet on. Handicapping, research and review continues through the week with more stats, situations, box scores and matchups. We suffered a losing Week 4 which followed 9-2 ATS in Weeks 2 and 3 for Top 25 games, picks and opinions. 

Top 25 Games and Week 5 Odds

Betting lines and college football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Current point spread on favorites plus game totals. All times ET. 

Check back by Friday each week as we add more Picks and Opinions or upgrades with select analysis, stats and information you can bet on. 

Saturday, Sept. 27 

(two games Friday, FSU & TCU)

No. 1 Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington, 52 | 3:30 pm | CBS
No. 2 Miami | Bye 
No. 3 Penn State (-3) vs. No. 6 Oregon, 53 | 7:30 pm | NBC
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (-1.5), 54.5 | 3:30 pm | ABC
No. 5 Georgia (-3) vs. No. 17 Alabama, 52.5 | 7:30 pm | ABC
No. 7 Oklahoma | Bye
No. 8 Florida State (-7) at Virginia, 58 | 7 pm | ESPN
No. 9 Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. Auburn, 53.5 | 3:30 pm | ESPN
No. 10 Texas | Bye
No. 11 Indiana (-7) at Iowa, 48.5 | 3:30 pm | Peacock
No. 12 Texas Tech | Bye
No. 14 Iowa State (-5.5) vs. Arizona, 49.5 | 7 pm | ESPN
No. 15 Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State, 62 | 4:15 p.m. | SEC Network 
No. 16 Georgia Tech (-14) at Wake Forest, 52 | 12 pm | ESPN
No. 18 Vanderbilt (-22.5) vs. Utah State, 59.5 | 12:45 pm | SEC Network
No. 19 Michigan | Bye
No. 20 Missouri (-44.5) vs. UMASS, 56.5 | 7:45 pm | ESPNU
No. 21 USC (-7) at No. 23 Illinois, 59.5 | 12 pm | FOX 
No. 22 Notre Dame (-5) at Arkansas, 64.5 | 12 pm | ABC 
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (-2.5), 54.5 | 9 pm | FOX
No. 25 BYU (-6.5)vs. Colorado, 47.5 | 10:15 pm | ESPN

Ohio State received 52 of the 66 first place votes. 

Others receiving votes: Auburn, Mississippi State, South Florida, Utah, Arizona State, Memphis, Louisville, Maryland, UNLV, UCF, North Texas 

Other noteable games on Sat., Sept. 27

- UCF at Kansas State (-6)
- Louisville (-4.5) at Pittsburgh, 58
- Utah (-10.5) at West Virginia, 49.5

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NCAA Football Week 5 Top 25 Picks

USC at Illinois - The unbeaten Trojans are averaging 52.5 points per game. The Illini were moving up until they gave up 63 at Indiana for their first loss of the season. Trojans and Fighting Illini meet for the first time since the 2008 Rose Bowl. Update Friday: Despite USC struggles in Eastern and Central time zone, stats, defense, balanced offense and 420+ projected yards give Trojans the edge, now -6.5. Lean: USC 

LSU at Ole Miss - The Tigers and Rebels have split the last four contests with both teams ranked the last two years when meeting. Last year LSU won in OT with QB Nussmeier 22/51 for 337 yards and tossing his 3rd TD with 27 seconds left in regulation to force overtime. Ole Miss defense is outside the top 120 in EPA per rush, but LSU has not run the ball effectively. Nussmeier was spectacular in last week's win vs. SE Lousiana and his WR's had five drops. LSU's defense is superior, and Ole Miss bro QB Trinidad Chambliss makes just his third start and mistakes and turnovers are likely the difference in defeat. Interesting tidbit: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin's daughter Landry, a student at Ole Miss, is dating LSU linebacker Whit Weeks. Pick: LSU  

Alabama at Georgia - Both teams off a bye. Crimson Tide has won nine of 10 meetings since 2008, but have not visited Athens since 2015. The loss was the 2021 season’s national championship game. Alabama ranks outside the top-100 in rushing, and 70th in EPA per rush vs. Georgia's defense that ranks No. 10 in EPA per rush. Crimson Tide rushed just 22 times for 72 yards vs. Wisconsin, and 29 times for 87 yards in an opening loss at Florida State. Bulldogs have won 33 straight games at home, the nation’s longest active streak. Opinion: Georgia 

Oregon at Penn State - This line was Penn State -5 ahead of the season as one of the biggest early season games. The Ducks beat the Lions 45-37 in last season's Big Ten championship game to move to 13-0 and secure a bye and the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff. Both teams have played a very soft early season schedule, and the Ducks have beaten four overmatched opponents by an average of 41.5 points per game. Ducks QB Dante Moore has four starts at Oregon and four other starts as a freshman at UCLA in 2023 before his redshirt last season. He's never faced a ranked team, and the bro is not going into 'White Out' night in Happy Valley and play with enough poise or mistake free against a Nittany Lions defense that has top-rated DL, LB's and DB's in the Big Ten. Penn State is off a bye and rested and ready for redemption and has a far greater experienced team and quarterback on a mission. Pick: Penn State. 

Opinion: Washington (+8.5) vs. Ohio State. Despite playing a softer schedule, Huskies are underrated and look good as Big Ten big home 'Dog having won 22-straight at Husky Stadium. First road start for Ohio State QB and Buckeyes. Lean 'over' too.  

Pick: Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State. Volunteers would have been a 2+ TD favorite if this game was opening week, but late missed FG/loss to Georgia and Bulldogs solid early season play and results has dropped this line. Recall in MSU's last minuted TD and 24-20 win over Arizona State that the Bulldogs were out-rushed by the Sun Devils 251-66. Teams that run and pass for 200+ yards in a game (which Vols average) are a positive ATS play (> 80% this season). Reality is Tennessee can roll on the road with their high-powered balanced offense averaging 500 yards per game and 47 points per game. Volunteers roll to big victory. 

Friday updates above and Non-Top 25 including top ACC play.

Pick: Pitt Panthers (+4.5). Panthers enter off a bye, a role they have thrived under 11th year head coach Pat Narduzzi. Pitt is also pissed off having blown a double-digit lead in a 31-24 OT loss to West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. Louisville is 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS playing cupcakes and favored by 15+ in all games. First road game for Cardinals, who are 1-6 SU/ATS in opening road contest last 7 years. Panthers hold a 0.6 net yards per play edge in this matchup, and QB Holstein has been solid with 800+ passing yards and 9 TD's in 2-1 start. Star RB Reid questionable for return and season debut, but would be a big boost (check status). Combination of Panthers stout run defense, 11 sacks and extra prep adds to the positive profile. 

Opinion: Syracuse (+4.5). Another early Sat. start in ACC action, and Duke getting too much credit in a game that would have been near pick 'em opening week. That's 'Cuz Duke just beat NC State 45-34, but Blue Devils were out-gained badly while allowing 500+ yards to NCST, who was -4 in turnover differential. Pair of QB transfers battle, and each is passing for 290+ yards per game. Didn't Syracuse just beat Clemson last week as huge 'Dog? No letdown for Orange. 

Opinion: Southern Miss (-4) vs. Jacksonville State. Line is up a point, although select top online sportsbooks dealing -3.5 for home standing Golden Eagles and JSU 0-2 on road and allowed 400+ yards and 41 points to Georgia Southern. Big motivation and value favorite with big edge in passing game and Eagles projected to pile up 420+ yards in victory. 

Check back for other select games, analysis, picks and opinions with information you can bet on. 

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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.