Preview and picks for NCAA Football Week 1

I cover college football and the NFL throughout the season and have posted winning picks for nearly a decade here at Off Shore Gaming Association. I'll continue more coverage this season of the biggest games each week in the AP Top 25 that draw more media coverage and watch and wager action, along with other select games of interest. From the betting lines and adjustments at top online sportsbooks to key matchups, insight and odds updates, I'll chip-in in Picks and Opinions with additional information you can bet on. 

You can follow along and decide if you want to bet on the NFL and NCAA football Picks and Opinions each week, as available.

I'll be pulling stats and data from leading sources, industry colleagues and football newsletters which provide ATS info and other stats that can be so time consuming to research. But I'll use my own insight, intuition and years of experience and research as a proven football handicapper and point spread prognosticator to try and guide you towards more winners. I like to dig into stats and have provided information and insight for years looking for match-up edges, along with stats, power and stability ratings and situational plays that can often be overlooked when evaluating the games and matchups. 

Winning bets is always the goal and how we keep score. But developing a process in your handicapping approach, monitoring the betting market, overreactions and making adjustments while searching for value should be of great significance. As you shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron, recognize there are plenty of hazards and rough along the way as you navigate and manage all the information put in front of you each week. 

Also understand that while the four power conferences and teams in the Top 25 rankings draw most the headlines, attention and betting action, those games may not offer the best value or betting opportunities. The online sportsbooks take the most bets on those games, which in turn drives the handle on the top teams and matchups. 

This season offers the most top-25 matchups we've seen in Week 1 in the past decade, headlined by No. 1 Texas in the SEC at No. 3 Ohio State, the defending national champions from the Big Ten. But No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson from the ACC will draw major watch and wager action along with the other top-10 matchup No. 6 Notre Dame at No. 10 Miami. 

So we'll see some immediate shuffling in the Top 10 and Top 25 following Week 1 action, as Big 12 contenders No. 22 Iowa State and No. 17 Kansas State already provided a close contest and result from Ireland last weekend with the Cyclones mini-upset 24-21. That final also upset over the total (50') bettors with the Cyclones taking a knee three times inside the K-State 1-yard line to end the game after a fourth down conversion ended with a TD reversal and the RB's elbow down at the 1-foot line with just over 2 minutes remaining. 

Bet on NCAA Football at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Top 25 Games and Week 1 Lines

Betting lines and college football odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals. All times ET. 

Check back by Friday each week as we add Picks and Opinions with select analysis, stats and information you can bet on. 

Thursday, Aug. 28 

No. 25 Boise State (-6) at South Florida, 63 | 5:30 p.m. ESPN

Friday, Aug. 29

Western Illinois at No. 12 Illinois (-45) | 7:30 p.m. Peacock

Sat., Aug. 30

No. 1 Texas at No. 3 Ohio State (-2.5), 47.5 | 12 p.m. FOX
Old Dominion at No. 20 Indiana (23.5), 54.5 | 2:30 p.m. FS1
Nevada at No. 2 Penn State (-44), 56.5 | 3:30 p.m. CBS/Paramount+
Marshall at No. 5 Georgia (-39.5), 55.5 | 3:30 p.m. ESPN
No. 8 Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State, 50.5 | 3:30 p.m. ABC
South Dakota at No. 22 Iowa State | 3:30 p.m. FOX
Montana State at No. 7 Oregon ( | 4 p.m. Big Ten Network
Illinois State at No. 18 Oklahoma | 6 p.m. ESPN+/SECN+
UTSA at No. 19 Texas A&M (-24.5), 56.5 | 7 p.m. ESPN
North Dakota at No. 17 Kansas State | 7 p.m. ESPN+|
No. 9 LSU at No. 4 Clemson (-3.5), 57.5 | 7:30 p.m. ABC
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at No. 23 Texas Tech ( | 7:30 p.m. ESPN+
New Mexico at No. 14 Michigan (-39.5), 49 | 7:30 p.m. NBC/Peacock
Georgia State at No. 21 Ole Miss (-35), 60.5 | 7:45 p.m. SEC Network
East Texas A&M at No. 16 SMU | 9 p.m. ACC Network
Northern Arizona at No. 11 Arizona State | 10 p.m. ESPN+

Sun., Aug. 31

Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 South Carolina (-7.5), 52.5 (Atlanta) | 3 pm ESPN
No. 6 Notre Dame (-2.5) at No. 10 Miami, 49 | 7:30 p.m. ABC

Other notable games

Nebraska (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati, 54.5 (in KC, Mo.) | 9 p.m. ESPN (Aug. 28)
Auburn (-2.5) at Baylor, 57.5 | 8 p.m. FOX (Aug. 29)
Georgia Tech (-5) at Colorado, 52 | 8 p.m. ESPN (Aug. 29)
Utah (-6) at UCLA, 51.5 | 11 p.m. FOX (Aug. 30)
TCU (-3.5) at North Carolina, 56 | 8 p.m. ESPN/ESPNU (Sept. 1) 

Stats, Strategies and ATS Notes 

Since 2013, FBS vs FCS favorites of greater than 37 points are > 55% ATS on a sample size of more than 100 games. However, the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN) research team notes that FBS vs. FBS teams as greater than 37 point favorites are 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS. Wagertalk says the situation is 19-2 ATS (lines can vary opening/closing/sportsbook). Two teams fit the 15-1 ATS angle this year in Week 1.

- Nevada at Penn State (-44)
- Marshall at Georgia (-39.5)

Also, watch these lines ahead of kickoff with initial movement downward.

- Georgia State at Ole Miss (-35)
- New Mexico at Michigan (-34.5)
- Missouri State at USC (-35)

Also, the final score in those FBS vs. FBS contests have gone over the total in 15 games (Wagertalk).

>Select Week 1 Matchups And Picks 

Auburn-Baylor - The Tigers new transfer QB Jackson Arnold may find more success on the Plains, but not confident it will come with a W in Waco for his teammates and coach Hugh Freeze. Auburn lost all four games SU last season when they were favored by less than 2 TD’s, and Freeze could be frozen out of his job if Auburn doesn’t get to 7 wins and their first winning season since 2020. The Tigers defensive front is not as strong as lost year's solid stop unit (118 rush YPG, 3.1 YPR), and the Bears could have an elite offense this year with nearly everyone back from a 34.4 points per game and 440 yards per game with a solid shot to be a '200 club' offense that both runs and passes for 200 yards per game. Baylor finished last season 6-0 SU/ATS and coaching continuity combined with solid returning personnel make Baylor the preferred home side despite line movement and money supporting Auburn. Pick: Baylor SU and ATS. Line in both these big games may not reach +3, but you can and should bet a portion of your wager on the moneyline and take +3 as available or buy 1/2 point as interested.

Texas-Ohio State - The Buckeyes converted a late 4th quarter turnover into a sack, scoop and TD score to top Texas 28-14 in last season’s College Football Playoff after the Longhorns failed from the OSU 1 yard line in the closing minutes. Ohio State has to replace tons of talent and players lost to the NFL, including a QB and new offensive coordinator calling plays. Reports out of Columbus also suggest that new QB Julian Sayin has been shaky. The rushing attack may be better than last year's finish (166/game - 4th straight season under 200 rushing YPG), and the Longhorns have a top rated defensive front that was top-3 in sacks and rushing defense last year and also features a top-5 defensive backfield. Texas has more continuity in coaching, personnel and the defensive strength to beat the Buckeyes in Columbus. The Buckeyes new defensive coordinator is former NFL DC and failed HC Matt Patricia. A major downgrade, and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian calls offensive plays and has the Heisman Trophy favorite QB, Arch Manning as his General to Hook 'em. That’s enough for me to support the underdog and first No. 1 ranked team to be a ‘Dog in Week 1 in more than 40 years. Pick: Texas SU and ATS

Follow along each week and check back by Friday as we add any additional matchups, stats and select Picks and Opinions on college football games with information you can bet on. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.