College Football Conference Championship Weekend

Saturday's college football conference championship games includes six contests with four that inpact the new 12-team College Football Playoff. Betting odds, picks and information you can bet on is provide below. 

Friday's three conference championship games included the Mountain West, where Boise State buried UNLV 21-7. That victory secure the automatic Group of Five bid in the CFP for Boise State along with a first round bye. The Broncos rank higher than any of the Power Four Big 12 teams, and Boise State’s only loss this season was to No. 1 Oregon 37-34 on a last second field goal by the Ducks in Week 2. 

Playbook Sports passed along some insight and ATS info for the conference championship games and noted that 174 FBS title games have taken place since Alabama defeated Florida to win the first-ever SEC championship game in 1992.  

There has been 113 same-season rematches in college conference title games since 2000. No edge in betting as those teams are 52-58 SU and 55-55 ATS. There will be four teams seeking same-season revenge this weekend starting with Texas (11-1) against Georgia (10-2) as the Longhorns look for redemption for a 30-15 home loss on Oct. 19. Texas was a -4 point favorite that day, and now the Longhorns are laying -2.5 points on a neutral field in Atlanta. 

The other one on Saturday fitting the same-season redemption profile is Ohio U (9-3) in the MAC Championship Game following a 30-20 loss to rival Miami, Ohio (8-4) on Oct. 19. Both teams finished 7-1 in conference play. 

The other two were Friday night with UNLV looking for redemption against Boise State in the Mountain West championship Game and Jacksonville State looking for the same against Western Kentucky in the Conference USA title game, and Jacksonville State won big 52-12. Also, Army beat Tulane 35-14 Friday night to win the American Athletic Conference championship.

For future seasons when these same season revengers are facing a .916 or greater opponent, they are just 7-21 straight up (SU) and 11-17 against the spread (ATS), including 1-2 SU/ATS last season. And if these teams are coming off consecutive wins, they dip to just 4-19 SU and 7-16 ATS. No games or teams qualify this season.  

College Football Championship Games Odds And Picks

College football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern (ET). Rankings are the current College Football Playoff rankings ahead of the final College Football Playoff selection show on Sunday, Dec. 8 at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN. 

Saturday, Dec. 7 

No. 1 Oregon (-3) vs. No. 3 Penn State, 50.5 | 8 pm | Big Ten Championship Game (Indianapolis) | CBS
No. 2 Texas (-2.5) vs. No. 5 Georgia, 50 | SEC Championship Game (Atlanta) | 4 pm | ABC
No. 8 SMU (-2.5) vs. No. 17 Clemson, 55.5 | ACC Championship Game (Charlotte, NC) | 8 pm | ABC
No. 15 Arizona State (-1.5) vs. No. 16 Iowa State, 50.5 | 12 pm |Big 12 Championship Game (Arlington, Texas) | ABC
Marshall at Louisiana (-6), 57.5 | 7:30 pm | Sun Belt Championship Game | ESPN
Ohio vs. Miami, Ohio (-2.5), 44 | 12 pm | MAC Championship Game (Detroit, MI | ESPN

Oregon-Penn State 

BetOnline reported Friday that 56% of the spread handle (money) is on Oregon. Dr. Bob Sports adds the following advanced stats noting the Ducks and Nittany Lions grade out very similarly on both sides of the ball. Penn State’s offense has been 1.4 yards per play better than average (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team, excluding their game against lowly Kent State, while Oregon’s offense has also been 1.4 yppl better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl). The Ducks’ defense has been 1.3 yppl better than average (4.7 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense) while the Nittany Lions have been 1.1 yppl better than average after adjusting for facing the backup quarterbacks of UCLA and Maryland. 

Oregon is just a bit better overall from the line of scrimmage and a bit better in special teams. The math favors the Ducks by 2.4 points with more scoring expected (in perfect dome conditions) than the market expects. 

Oregon has passed every test this season as the only undefeated team in college football. The Ducks (12-0) beat Ohio State, and won on the road at Michigan and Wisconsin before hammering the Washington Huskies to close the season.That was a big redemption game for Oregon, who lost twice to Washington last season. Penn State (11-1) lost their only high-profile game at home to Ohio State. But the Nittany Lions are a defensive dominator and have held five teams to season-low yards this season - tied for best in the country. Penn Stare has also outgained all but one opponent, and is 6-1 In the Stats and +128 net yards vs. common opponents while Oregon is 7-1 ITS and +146 net yards. I'm going a bit contrary in picks. 

Pick Over and Opinion Penn State

Texas-Georgia 

This is the most bet game Saturday and the line has dipped down from Texas -3 to -2.5. Both teams will reach the 12-team College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome, and same for Oregon-Penn State result.

Texas’ only loss this season was a 15-30 home loss to Georgia, which is a result that is hard to ignore. However, Texas allowed 7 sacks in that contest (22 total this season), and the Longhorns have PFF's highest-rated offensive line. Texas only allowed 1 sack to both Oklahoma and Florida, who each averaged at least 0.5 sacks per game more than Georgia. 

Texas is not quite as good offensively as Georgia (0.2 yppl worse) but the Longhorns have a significantly better defense than the Bulldogs with Texas a top defensive dominator. Texas allowed just 247 yards per game (No. 2 behind Ohio State) and 3.8 yards per play - best in the country (Georgia 5.1). The Longhorns allowed a nation-low 143 passing yards per game, and the ‘Horns defense has been 1.8 yppl better than average (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average defense) and they were better than that against Georgia, yielding just 4.1 yppl in that game to a Bulldogs’ offense that would average 6.7 yppl on the road against an average defense. The Georgia defense, meanwhile, has been only 0.9 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppl against an average defense). 

Adjustments made for Georgia playing better against better SEC teams, and a slight bump (1 point) for playing in Atlanta. But inconsistency by the Bulldogs including QB Carson Beck (12 INT's). Yes, Georgia beat Texas, but the Longhorns are playing better and stronger in the trenches. Georgia is 2-1 In the Stats and +142 net yards vs. common opponents (0-3 ATS) while Texas is 3-0 and +223 yards. I'm going to bet 'em and Hook 'em with the ‘Horns. 

Pick Texas 

Others: Opinions Ohio Bobcats + and Clemson +

More College Football updates as the CFP matchups, bracket and odds are unveiled Sunday

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FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.