Analysis and predictions for college football week 10 Top 25 games

The first of six College Football Playoff rankings came out this week, Ohio State Buckeyes is No. 1 followed by No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, No. 3 Michigan Wolverines, No. 4 Florida State Seminoles and No. 5 Washington Huskies. Those five teams remain undefeated at 8-0, along with No. 25 Air Force, James Madison and Liberty. I'll use the CFB Playoff rankings moving foward instead of the Associated Press Top 25. 

Georgia has been the AP's No. 1 team the entire season. But the CFP Committee gives Ohio State the edge having played the tougher schedule and prevailed, so far, including a very fortunate win at Notre Dame. By the time we get to the sixth CFP rankings on Dec. 3 selection day for the final College Football Playoff with four teams, it's highly likely a team outside the current team outside the current top 4 make the College Football Playoff. 

Just 21 of the 36 teams ranked top 4 in the first CFP rankings have made the College Football Playoff since its inception in 2014. 

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks are on most informed NCAA bettors top 4 list, and will be favored over Washington in a rematch if those two meet again in the Pac-12 championship game. 

The Ducks delivered for us last Saturday in Week 9 as one of our Top 25 matchup picks with a dominating road win at No. 13 Utah, 35-6. We added two other Top 25 picks as winners on Kansas outright over No. 6 Oklahoma, and Wisconsin holding on for the point spread cover in a 14-point loss vs. No. 3 Ohio State. We added a lean winner on No. 20 Louisville over No. 18 Duke. But a scoreless fourth quarter in the Oregon/Utah game cost us an Opinion winner. 

So a 3-1 week on Picks and Opinions, and we head into November with winning results for the season. 

All college football 2023 Picks and Opinions through Week 9 are 22-16, including 19-12 ATS on sides. 

Top 25 Matchup Picks: 3-5 
Top 25 Matchup Opinions: 7-5
Top 25 Game Picks: 3-1
Bonus Picks: 4-0
Bonus Opinions: 1-1
Top 25 Games Opinions: 3-1
Top 25 Totals Opinions: 1-3 

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Top 25 Games, Odds and TV Schedule

College football odds from BetAnySports refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. All times Eastern (ET). 
 
Saturday, Nov. 4 

No. 1 Ohio State (-18.5) at Rutgers | 12 p.m. | CBS
No. 2 Georgia (-15.5) vs. No. 12 Missouri | 3:30 p.m. | CBS Sports.
No. 3 Michigan (-32.5) vs. Purdue | 7:30 p.m. | NBC.
No. 4 Florida State (-21.5) at Pitt | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN.
No. 5 Washington (-3) at No. 20 Southern California | 7:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 6 Oregon (-24.5) vs, California | 5:30 p.m. | Pac-12 Network
No. 7 Texas (-4) vs. No. 23 Kansas State | 12 p.m. | FOX
No. 8 Alabama (-3) vs. No. 14 LSU | 7:45 p.m. | CBS
No. 9 Oklahoma (-6) at Oklahoma State | 3:30 p.m. | ABC
No. 10 Ole Miss (-3) vs. Texas A&M | 12 p.m. | ESPN

Week 10 College Football Playoff Top 25 Picks And Matchups

No. 23 Kansas State at No. 7 Texas | 12 p.m. on FOX
Line: Texas -4 and Total 50
Opinion: Texas

Only a backup QB for Texas keeps this from being rated higher, as the Longhorns still sport a top defensive team and plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. I project Texas to outgain Kansas State by more than 70 yards. But coach Chris Kleiman's team is riding high with confidence of a 41-0 shutout of Houston last week. The Wildcats are now 34-19-1 under coach Kleiman since 2019, including 8-0 SU/ATS the last two seasons against opponents coming off a SU and ATS win. Still, Texas buried both BYU and Kansas by more than 25 points in their last two home games, and we like the Longhorns to Hook 'em. 

No. 12 Missouri at No. 15 Georgia | 3:30 pm on CBS Sports
Line: Georgia -15.5 and Total 47.5
Opinion: Georgia

This line would have been at least a touchdown higher at the start of the season. But Missouri has played at a higher level going 7-1 SU including 5-3 ATS with their only loss by 10 points to LSU. The Tigers have also out-gained their last four opponents by nearly 100 yards per game. Last year we had Mizzu in this matchup as a monster underdog and they nearly upset Georgia before falling late in a 4-point loss. Georgia is 8-0 but just 3-5 ATS, and now without their future NFL tight end Bowers. The Bulldogs also have the stronger special teams. The defending champs dominating defense combined with a 500 YPG offense will hold nothing back and play a full 4 quarters in this matchup remembering last year's close call and the 'snub' by the CFP committee to drop them to No. 2. 

No. 5 Washington at No. 20 USC | 7:30 p.m. on ABC
Line: Washington -3 and Total 77
Pick: USC

The Trojans would have been favored in this matchup early season, and USC coach Lincoln Riley is the best coach in college football at home ATS. Big game and shootout between early season Heisman favorites and high-power passing attacks with limited defense. 

No. 14 LSU at No. 8 Alabama | 7:45 p.m. on CBS
Line: Alabama -3 and Total 61.5
Opinion: Under and Lean LSU

The LSU Tigers are a 200 Club efficient offense that runs for 200 yards per game and passes for 343 yards per game vs. FBS opponents, which ranks No. 2 in the country. Alabama has the superior special teams in this close matchup. 

Check back Friday and Saturday for more game analysis. 

Top 25 Picks

No. 1 Ohio State (-18.5) at Rutgers | 12 p.m. | CBS
Opinion: Rutgers

You have to be careful playing against these highly-ranked CFP teams down the stretch. They are powerful teams who have the ability to shut down opponents, extend leads and won't hold back if given the opportunity by an opponent as these top teams tack on style points for the CFP Committee. Still, you'll often pay a little tax laying points with these top-ranked bullies. Ohio State is a defensive dominator, but the Rutgers Scarlet Knights are also a top defensive team. There is a concern about Rutgers offense generating much offense, but with an extra week to prepare off a bye for coach veteran Greg Schiano, perhaps some wrinkles on offense. Still, with a game total of 42 and implied score of about OSU 30-12, I like the Knights to do better and hang tough enough. Rutgers scoring 10-13 points may be enough to cover this big number at home, as I don't project Ohio State to gain 400 yards offense. If the Buckeyes suffer any turnover troubles against the solid Knights defense, then No. 1 OSU won't be pulling away as most bettors supporting the Buckeyes expect. 

Bonus Picks

No. 15 Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson | 12 p.m. | CBS
Pick: Clemson

Clemson went 11-3 last season and took home the ACC title. The Tigers started the season ranked top-5, but are now 4-4 and one of the bigger disappointments of the CFB season. But Playbook Sports notes that bowl teams coming off consecutive SU and ATS losses as a favorites taking on a greater than .700 opponent off a SU double-digit win are 28-14 ATS since 1990 from Game 7 out. That improves to 15-2 ATS if the opponent is coming off a SU and ATS win like Notre Dame last week in their 58-7 pounding of Pittsburgh. Clemson lost a pair of one-score ACC road games the past two weeks, and previously at home in Death Valley lost in OT to undefeated Florida State 31-24 despite outgaining the Seminoles 426-311 including 146-22 on the ground. This total has been bet up to 44.5, and we'll prowl with the Tigers as this week's bonus pick to take down the Irish. 

Rivalry Games

Colorado State at Wyoming (-6) - The Border War is Friday night in Laramie, and I have a connection to someone on the Cowboys. Not for information, but to follow. But after scoring on Wyoming a number of times earlier this season, I bet Colorado State (+7.5) in this rivalry game. The line has dipped down to Wyoming -6, and can only recommend a lean on the Rams at this point with watch and wager live betting interest Friday night. 

No. 8 Oklahoma (-6) at Oklahoma State - The final 'Bedlam' meeting as Big 12 rivals. We cashed with a winning pick last Saturday Week 9 on Kansas as 'Dog in their upset of Oklahoma to hand the Sooners their first loss. Now the Sooners take on their big state rival, and the Cowboys actually project to be close to the Sooners in total yards in this contest with both over 440 yards. As such, over the total of 60.5 is in play and worth a bet (opinion).  

More updates and information you can bet on by Saturday morning, along with any additional picks.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and loves college football. He's been handicapping and betting college football for more than two decades and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X (Twitter) @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.