The New Mexico Lobos got off to a great start this season, winning their first 14 games, including an upset of Saint Mary’s. Richard Pitino guides this program, and in one of those victories, he hosted his dad’s Iona team and turned them back as well.

Things trended downward a little bit for New Mexico since then, and on Wednesday night, they will pay a visit to the Utah State Aggies in Mountain West Conference basketball action that begins at 10:30 PM Eastern time and will be televised by Fox Sports 1.

In the college basketball betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetOnline, Utah State is the favorite:

Utah State Aggies -4 (-118)
New Mexico Lobos +4 (-102)

Over 156 points -110
Under 156 points -110

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New Mexico has lost only to Fresno State, UCLA, and to Nevada, the latter a 97–94 overtime thriller. They’ve got credible wins, defeating both San Diego State and Boise State.

Utah State, on the other hand, has suffered what one might call “bad“ losses to Weber State and SMU, while beating some pretty fair opponents in Oral Roberts, Washington State, and UNLV. The Aggies are coached by Ryan Odom, who piloted the Maryland- Baltimore County team that beat Virginia a few years ago in the NCAA tournament.

New Mexico is a team that wants to step up the tempo. But they are not a team you’ll see a lot of long-distance shooting from. In fact, they’ve attempted only 27.5% of their shots from downtown.

That’s a welcome sight for Utah State, which has had all kinds of problems stopping teams that have shot from the arc, allowing over 37%.

On the flipside, Utah State has been deadly from three-point range. How deadly? Well, their 40.7% accuracy rate is best in the nation. And the Aggies have demonstrated some ability to defend inside the arc, which is a key here. They have allowed only 45.2% in two pointers, so when you look at this game from the standpoint of a style matchup, you have to give the advantage to the Aggies.

They have an advantage in size as well, with a frontcourt that goes 6–8, 6–9 and 6–9 across. But the biggest gun is Steven Ashworth, the 6–1 guard who has averaged 15.3 points along with 4.7 assists. He’ll match up just fine with New Mexico point guard, Jaelen House, but House is very opportune defensively, averaging 2.9 steals per game. So "ball security" is a key.

We recognize that New Mexico has competed against, and beaten, better opposition. But do they have strengths that will exploit Utah State's weaknesses? We're not sure they do. So even if Jamal Mashburn (41.7% triples) gets hot, we have to afford the advantage, both on the outside and the inside, to the Aggies. Lay the points.

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