Can Patrick Mahomes bring the Chiefs back to the Promised Land?

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs enter the 2026 NFL season looking to rebound after one of the most disappointing campaigns of the Andy Reid era. Following a major knee injury and a rare playoff absence, many NFL bettors are asking whether Mahomes can once again lead Kansas City back to the Super Bowl.

Can Mahomes get the Chiefs back to the Big Game?

Last season, the Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Injuries ravaged the roster and Mahomes' season-ending knee injury ended any hopes of another postseason run. Mahomes tore both his ACL and LCL in Week 15 of the 2025 season, underwent surgery, and has spent the offseason rehabbing. And, in 2026, Mahomes wasn't able to pull off many late-game heriocs as the Chiefs finished 6–11, yet only two of their losses were by more than one score.

Looking toward 2026

As the Chiefs break training camp, reports indicate Mahomes been cleared for full participation and is trending toward being ready for Week 1. Despite the disappointing year, Kansas City believes they have the foundation for another championship run. There is plenty of young talent on the offensive side of the ball and, after all, Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes' 2025 Numbers 

Before suffering his knee injury, Mahomes still managed to produce respectable numbers despite playing behind a wildly inconsistent offensive line and with a receiving corps that spent more time off of the field than on it.

 - 22 passing touchdowns
 - 11 interceptions
 - 62.7% completion percentage
 - Career-high 422 rushing yards
 - Career-best 5 rushing touchdowns

Those statistics don't match the MVP-caliber seasons Chiefs fans have become accustomed to, and there has been a great deal of chatter regarding the "Decline of Patrick Mahomes." But the offensive struggles were largely driven by were offensive line injuries rather than a lack of talent. Injuries to rookie left tackle Josh Simmons (twice) and the shuffling of Jaylon Moore and others led to inconsistent play and crushed the Chiefs' run game. 

The Biggest Question: Mobility After the Injury

"Mahomes being Mahomes" is about making plays, usually involving Mahomes escaping pressure and making rediculous throws from impossible angles. The biggest question on the Chief's quest for Super Bowl LXI - Can he come back from a torn ACL and LCL and be the same player outside the pocket?

The encouraging news is that Mahomes has already returned to full practice and reportedly looks increasingly comfortable moving around the pocket. Head coach Andy Reid has praised his progress while emphasizing patience throughout camp.

Plus, its not all Mahomes. Kansas City enters 2026 needing several young offensive weapons take major steps forward.

A Better Supporting Cast?

Xavier Worthy

After an injury-plagued season that included shoulder surgery, Worthy appears healthy and has already begun reconnecting with Mahomes on deep routes during training camp. His elite speed remains one of the NFL's biggest matchup problems if he can stay on the field. Industry giant BetOnline has Worthy's total receiving yards at Over/Under 675.5.

Travis Kelce

At 36, Kelce may be entering the final chapter of his legendary career. While no longer the explosive playmaker of five years ago, he remains Mahomes' most trusted target in critical situations. If this is indeed his final season, expect Kansas City to lean heavily on the future Hall of Famer. He is still Mahomes' go-to target and his projected total receptions is at 72.5, which is less catches than he's had in a decade. 

The Young Receivers

Kansas City also hopes its younger receivers continue to develop. Rookie Cyrus Allen has reportedly impressed coaches and Mahomes early in camp before suffering a minor shin bruise that is not expected to sideline him for long. And 2025 undrafted free-agent Andrew Armstrong has been getting reps with the first team. Andy Reid has praised his speed and transition quickness.

The AFC Won't Wait

The conference has never been deeper.

Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Houston all remain legitimate contenders, while division rivals Denver and Los Angeles have improved dramatically after Kansas City's surprising decline in 2025.

The margin for error is much smaller than it was during the Chiefs' championship years.

Oddsmakers aren't writing off the Chiefs

Leading online sports books still have the Chiefs as a slight favorite to win the AFC West, but just ahead of the Chargers and Broncos. And KC is still listed as the number five favorite to win SBLXI! Reduced juice outlet BetAnything has them priced at +1700 and Bovada bettors have optomistically pushed the price down to just +1500. 

Final Prediction

Betting against Patrick Mahomes has not been a profitable strategy over the last decade. Sure, the knee injury is significantand and yeah, Kansas City is coming off its worst season in the Mahomes/Reid era.

But Mahomes has repeatedly proven he elevates everyone around him. If he returns close to full strength, Xavier Worthy becomes the explosive playmaker many expect, and Travis Kelce has one more productive season left, the Chiefs have every opportunity to go from missing the playoffs to contending for another Lombardi Trophy.

The road back to the "Promised Land" won't be easy. For the first time in years, Kansas City enters the season as the hunter rather than the hunted and that may be exactly the motivation Patrick Mahomes needs.