A handicapping breakdown for all of the Breeders' Cup races on Saturday

The 2025 Breeders' Cup takes place once again at Del Mar Racetrack near San Diego. I expect the U.S. to be very dominant for the Saturday races. The weather is supposed to be hot and dry which may also help the chances of North American horses who tend to fair better than European horses on dry, fast surfaces.

Analysis and picks for all 9 races on Saturday

Filly and Mare Sprint

The opening Breeders Cup race on Saturday looks to be a toss-up with half the 10 horse field having a good chance at victory. Sweet Azteca is the morning line favorite after winning seven of her 9 races by a combined total of 33 lengths. Her last race at Del Mar in August was particularly impressive and she’s been training very well since. Tamara started her career last year at Del Mar with impressive victories before fading badly in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. It’s clear she needs to run over 6 furlongs or less and she bounced back last time at Santa Anita with a big win over some good horses. Hope Road has five wins and 10 in-the-money finishes in 12 races and most recently won impressively in the Ballerina Stakes at Belmont, although the caliber of the horses there is questionable. She was beaten pretty badly in two prior races by Splendora, who seems to be getting better each race and won a cheaper stakes race at Del Mar last month. Richi started her career in Chili in 2023 before moving to California under Bob Baffert and while she had some good races at the shorter distance, she has been running a mile or more in her last four races where she has been quite competitive. It’s a bit of a surprise she chose this race over the Mile race. Vaha and Zeitlos both ran in this race last year showing little and neither has shown much since.

Filly and Mare Sprint Prediction: Winner: Tamara (7/2) | Second Choice: Sweet Azteca (2/1) | Long Shot Possibility: Splendora (8/1)

Turf Sprint

A full field is running in this race as usual with two also eligibles available for a scratch as well. Motorious, who lost this race by a neck last year, is back but the winner of the race, Starlust, is not. Since that race Motorius ran in three Grade 2 and Grade 3 races in California and like in the Breeders' Cup race was charging down the stretch in each. He won two of the races and lost by a nose last time out to Reef Runner, but was placed first through disqualification after recovering from a bad start and a big deficit. He will be looking for a face pace to chase down and giving his racing style, the rail might actually help. Reef Runner is also a big threat and will be looking for a fast pace too. Arizona Blaze ran last year in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and lost by a half length. He went back to Europe where he’s had success including a win in a Group 1 race at the Curragh in Ireland last time out over a yielding turf. He probably would prefer a slower surface but is a big threat regardless of the firmness of the turf. AG Bullet came third in this race last year just missing out to Motorious and has two very impressive wins in her last two races at Saratoga and Churchill Downs. This year she gets John Velasquez as jockey which should help. Shisospicy looked good at the start of her career but went to Ascot and got trounced. She since came back to Kentucky and won easily in good time. At the Ascot race she was beaten badly by Arizona Blaze. Khaadem looks outclassed but has Frankie Dettori as jockey and can’t be counted out. I don’t see any other real challengers, although Yellow Card and No Nay Hudson would have to be considered if they draw in from the also eligibles.

Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Arizona Blaze (5/1) | Second Choice: Motorious (7/2) | Long Shot Possibility: Khaadem (10/1)

Sprint

The Sprint returns to the main card on NBC after being relegated to FanDuel TV and Peacock after the Classic last year. A full field of 14 horses will run in the race and Straight No Chaser returns to defend his title after running down Bentornato in the stretch and just holding off a fast charging Mullikin in 2024 . Of the three horses, Bentornato is the most appealing having run only one race after that in September at Churchill Downs where he romped to victory in a time of 1:08.4. Straight No Chaser ran two races in Saudi Arabia winning one and getting trounced in the other and then came back to Santa Anita where he faded in the stretch, losing to both Imagination and Dr. Venkman. Imagination’s win, while impressive, was in a slower time and he gave no indication prior to that he was a sprinter. If there was huge speed in the race I could see him running it down, but I just don’t see the Bob Baffert horse being able to rate close enough to win. Mullikin was my pick to win this race last year but his performances since have been very poor and he just doesn’t seem to be coming into this race in good form. Kopion draws the rail which will hurt her chances but she has five wins in 9 starts including a near miss to Sweet Azteca who is the favorite in the Filly and Mare Sprint. The fact she chose to run this race instead of the race against fillies is interesting. Nakatomi and Big City Lights can’t be totally discounted either.

Sprint Prediction: Winner: Bentornato (5/2) | Second Choice: Straight No Chaser (8/1) | Long Shot Possibility: Big City Lights (15/1)

Distaff

Seismic Beauty is the fairly heavy favorite at 9/5 odds in this thirteen horse field and it’s hard to argue her class. The Bob Baffert trained horse started her career slow but has won her last 3 races by a combined 16 lengths including the last race where she led wire to wire to beat both Kopoin and Richi who were discussed previously. She will go to the lead and if not headed could run away with it. Nitrogen draws the rail and has never finished out of the money. She has had a busy schedule finishing a charging third in the Juvenile Turf last year and has run 8 times since with 6 wins and 2 seconds with both those seconds missing out by a short distance. The question seems to be whether anyone will challenge Seismic Beauty on the lead to set a pace she can run down. Gin Gin beat Nitrogen in the last race but really showed little before that and only won because she was able to set a very slow pace. Dorth Vader won a race easily at Saratoga over a sloppy track in June and just lost out in the Personal Ensign last time out. Again, she will rate well but there are others better in here. Clicquot has won four races in a row including a Grade 1 race at Parx last time out but it’s questionable whether she beat much as Dry Powder finished second in that race and she is clearly well below these as she was badly beaten by Scottish Lassie in prior races. Sarawak Rim comes in from Argentina and while she has four wins in five races, it’s hard to bet an Argentine horse running for the first time in North America although Full Sorrento did surprise in a different Breeders' Cup race last year on his first attempt.

Distaff Prediction: Winner: Seismic Beauty (9/5). Second Choice: Nitrogen (4/1), Long Shot Possibility: Scottish Lassie (12/1)

Turf

Rebel’s Romance returns to defend the title after easily winning this race last year and in 2022. He’s won five of 7 races since then, including a Group 1 race in Germany and the Turf Classic at Aqueduct where he romped by three lengths over both Redistricting and El Cordobes in wire to wire fashion. The 7 year old gelding is hoping to give William Buick his 10th Breeders' Cup win and Charlie Appleby his 12th win as a trainer for Godolphin Stables. Despite his impressive record, Rebel’s Romance isn’t the morning line favorite. That honor goes to Minnie Hauk which has 5 wins in 7 career starts with the only losses being her maiden race and the last race at the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe where she was just caught at the line by Daryz. The Frankel filly posted a surprise win in the BetFred Oaks and a commanding win at the Irish Oaks. There’s no question she would prefer a softer turf but with her form, the Aidan O’Brien trained filly is the one to beat. Goliath has won half his races to date including an impressive win in a grade 1 race in Germany but will have to show more to beat the top two. Amiloc won his first four races but came up short in the Irish St. Leger stakes - but on a best performance could pull off the upset. Silawi beat Tawny Port in the Canadian International at Woodbine but there’s nothing in their past performances that indicate they can compete successfully here and the rest of the horses are badly outclassed.

Turf  Prediction: Winner: Rebels Romance (7/2) | Second Choice: Minnie Hauk (8/5) | Long Shot Possibility: Amiloc (10/1)

Classic

Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travis winner Sovereignty was clearly the horse to beat until being scratched on Wednesday due to a fever. That has made this race into a wide open affair. Sierra Leone returns to defend his tile and he has run well in four races since last year’s Classic including a win in the Whitney and a charging second at the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The slow pace in that race made it difficult for the horse to chase down Antiquarian who had a perfect trip. Unfortunately, Antiquarian seems a cut below despite that effort, finishing well beaten seconds in lower graded races this year leading up to that race. He was also badly beaten at the Belmont Stakes in 2024 by both Sierra Leone and Mindframe. Mindframe was second choice to Sierra Leone in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but lost his rider. Prior to that he defeated Sierra Leone in the Steven Foster at Churchill Downs. With the perfect trip he could win this. Journalism lost to Sovereignty by 3 lengths as favorite in the Kentucky Derby and then went on to win the Preakness, which Sovereignty’s owner and trainer chose to skip. He won the Haskell by a closing half length in July and then came second to Fierceness in the Pacific Classic. Despite being bumped in that race it was clear Fierceness was the better horse despite Journalism going off at 2/5 odds. Fierceness draws the rail for the race and if he can run back to that race at the Pacific Classic is probably the horse to beat. That said, if he’s forced to set a blistering pace I can see him faltering. He raced in this race last year and came second to Sierra Leone as favorite while Japanese Horse Forever Young looked set to win entering the stretch but leveled out. Forever Young, who famously lost a three way photo with Mystic Dan and Sierra Leone in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, has won 3 out of 4 races since last year’s Breeders Cup in Dubai and Tokyo. He was a respectable third in the Dubai World Cup which is still the richest race in the world. Baeza, who won the Pennsylvania Derby last time out and was a close second to Sovereignty in the Jim Dandy and a respectable third in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes with Journalism ahead of him, can’t be discarded. Nevada Beach which won 3 of 4 races for Bob Baffert can’t be completely ruled out either.

Classic Prediction: Winner: Journalism (10/1) | Second Choice: Sierra Leone (8/1) | Long Shot Possibility: Baeza (15/1). Note the scratch of Sovereignty makes these odds skewed.

Mile

Always an exciting and competitive race this year is no exception and it’s unfortunate the Breeders' Cup has chosen once again to schedule this race after the Classic on Peacock and FanDuel TV only, rather than NBC’s main channel. Notable Speech, who was my pick to win this last year but came up three-quarters of a length short is the morning line favorite. He had 5 wins in 7 races including wins in the highly regarded 2000 Guineas and Sussex Stakes as a three year old and comes off an impressive win at the Woodbine Mile. Despite that he hasn’t been as sharp as a 4 year old and can be beaten. Johannes, who beat Notable Speech in last year’s race, returns as well and since that race has two wins in lower stakes races at Santa Anita but was trounced as the favorite in the 4StarDave at Saratoga. It’s worth noting that race and a poor performance at Churchill Downs were his only races outside California. Three year old Sahlan comes off back to wins in France, including a nose victory in the Prix De Moulin on Arc day. He was a longshot on that day and prior to that was soundly beaten by Jonquil. Jonquil in turn came to the U.S. and ran in the Turf Mile at Keeneland where he was a fast charging 4th behind Rhetorical and Program Trading. Rhetorical has yet to race in California. Program Trading was very impressive last year at longer distances but that performance at a mile may indicate that’s his preferred distance. The Lion in Winter is the entry for Aidan O’Brien and just lost to Sahlan in the pre-mentioned Prix de Moulin and was a very impressive second as a long shot in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot just two weeks ago. The three year old is clearly finding his best form now. Formidable Man clearly loves this track and distance and can’t be completely ignored. Argine is a longshot, but Japanese horses have been tough recently in the Breeders' Cup.

Mile Prediction: Winner: The Lion in Winter (6/1) | Second Choice: Sahlan(6/1) | Long Shot Possibility: Jonquil (10/1)

Dirt Mile

Nysos is the overwhelming morning line favorite here and rightly so. The Bob Baffert trained horse has 5 wins in six races with his only loss being by a neck to Mindframe, who has a good chance in the Classic. He won the five races by a combined 32 lengths and has shown he can sit just off the lead and make his move when needed. Full Serrano is back to defend his title after easily winning at 13/1 odds over Post Time and he has had two races since then in 2025, with a dominating wire to wire victory in an allowance race and a close run second to Nevada Beach in the Goodwood, both at Del Mar. The Argentine horse is probably the biggest threat to Nyos. Mystic Dan won the Kentucky Derby last year by the slimmest of margins in a three horse photo with Sierra Leone and Forever Young, finished second in the Preakness and was retired until December after getting trounced in the Belmont Stakes. He closed the year with another bad loss in the Malibu Stakes. As a 4-year-old, he’s run six times with wins in a Grade 2 and Grade 3 races at Churchill Downs and has run some good races against Sierra Leone and Mindframe. He definitely has the class to win on the right day although there is nothing in his running style to suggest that the mile is the best distance for him. White Abarrio was the popular Classic winner in 2023 for controversial trainer Rick Dutrow but in 2024 switched back to Joseph Saffie and his performances have been hit and miss. He had two  romping wins in the winter at Gulfstream Park but he was beaten pretty soundly in his last three races running against the likes of Sierra Leone and Fierceness. It seems he should love the mile distance although he has yet to win at a race over a mile. Goal Oriented, who was 4th in this year’s Kentucky Derby, a close third in the Haskell and a decent 3rd in the Pennsylvania Derby could be tough as he shortens up to a mile from the longer distances he clearly didn’t like and he gets a three pound weight break as three year old. Citizen Bull is the other entry for Baffert and easily won a cheap mile race at Del Mar in August but better hope he runs back to that rather than the 33 length trouncing in the Kentucky Derby.

Dirt Mile Prediction: Winner: Nysos (8/5) | Second Choice: Goal Oriented (6/1) | Long Shot Possibility: White Abarrio (8/1)

Filly and Mare Turf

The Breeders' Cup ends with a wide open race where seven of the 14 horses have a legitimate chance. She Feels Pretty was my choice in the Juvenile Filly Turf in 2023 and was a close third. Since then she ran five times as a three year old posting dominant wins in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Keeneland and the American Oaks at Santa Anita. And as a four-year-old she won three graded races including most recently a hard fought win over Diamond Rain in the EP Taylor Stakes at Woodbine. Diamond Rain has four victories for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby in England and can’t be counted out. The other Godolphin horse Cinderella’s Dream barely lost this race to Moira last year and since then has two wins and 2 seconds in England. Her last 2 races were not as good but clearly William Buick believes she is the bigger threat having chosen to ride her over Diamond Rain. Gezora is the morning line favorite after winning four times in France, including an impressive win in the Group 1 Prix de Diane Longines but expectedly was beaten soundly in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at 30/1 odds about a month ago. I’m not convinced she is as good as the Godolphin horses or She Feels Pretty. See the Fire is an intriguing filly despite drawing the outside post. The four-year-old has been busy racing 16 times, posting three wins and 10 in the money finishes. She comes into this race after losing by only a neck in the Prix de L’Opera at Longchamp in October and should love the longer distance of this race. Mind you she seems to prefer a softer surface. Bedtime Story, who just lost to Gezora and Village Voice, can’t be completely discarded.

Filly and Mare Turf Prediction: Winner: She Feels Pretty (4/1) | Second Choice: Cinderella’s Dream (9/2) | Long Shot Possibility: Bedtime Story (12/1)

Check out Hartley's betting tips and picks for the Breeders' Cup Friday races.

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