Betting NFL Week 1

The 2025 NFL season kicks off this week, and high expectations surround the Super Bowl champions Philadelphia Eagles as they tackle the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. The second of eight division games is a rare Friday night lights with 2024 AFC champions Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers. Fairway's Forecast will chip in more NFL coverage and picks this season while adding other tips, totals, stats and schedules each week with key games impacting the betting markets at leading online sportsbooks. 

Our NFL underdog picks will not continue after posting a 57% ATS win rate over 7 years before a rare losing season last season that saw us winning again into Week 11 before favorites went on a record-breaking run that caused many top bookmakers hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. The final eight weeks of the regular season produced the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years with favorites finishing the 2024-25 season 144-121-7 against the spread, according to data from Covers.com. 

Just three season's ago in 2022, a record 10 road favorites kicked off 2022 NFL season in Week 1, and we had another winning season picking only NFL underdogs, which followed a 70% ATS season in 2021 posting 'Dog picks on these pages at OSGA. In 2023 Fairways NFL underdog picks finished 11-1 ATS in December and included a 7-0 ATS 'Dog log in Week 14 (plus a push). Unfortunately, last season was a poor finish as favorites ruled with record-breaking results. 

This season to kick off 2025 Week 1, there are seven road favorites. Here are some betting angles supporting home underdogs in Week 1. 

Betting Angle: Divisional home underdogs are 19-12-1 straight up (SU) and 24-8 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since 2009. Last season those home division 'Dogs were 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS (Colts), and just 2-4 SU/ATS in 2023, but we had both winners SU/ATS on our Week 1 underdog picks (Browns & Jets).

Also, BetUS reports that all Week 1 underdogs have hit greater than 55% ATS the last 12 seasons going 104-84-4 ATS (7-9 and 10-6 ATS last 2 years) with divisional 'Dogs 41-20-1 ATS (67%) home or away (0-3 SU/1-2 ATS last year.

Since 2010, underdogs of 6 or more points in NFL Week 1 have gone 41-27-1 (60%) ATS per @Bet_Labs ✅

Big Week 1 Dogs

Cowboys +7.5 at Eagles
Saints +6.5 vs. Cardinals
Giants +6 at Commanders
Titans +8 at Broncos

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— John Ewing (@johnewing) September 2, 2025

NFL Week 1 Games And Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from BetOnline and top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold. Compare the Week 1 spreads and totals from openers released in May. 

Dallas at Philadelphia (-7.5), 47.5 - Thursday, Sept. 4
Kansas City (-3) vs LA Chargers, 45.5 - Friday, Sept. 5 in Brazil
Pittsburgh (-3) at NY Jets, 38.5 - Sunday, Sept. 7
Miami at Indianapolis (-1.5), 47 - favorite flipped
Carolina at Jacksonville (-3), 46
NY Giants at Washington (-6), 45.5
Cincinnati (-5.5) at Cleveland, 47.5
Las Vegas at New England (-2.5/3), 43
Arizona (-6.5) at New Orleans, 42.5
Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Atlanta, 46
Tennessee at Denver (-9), 41.5
San Francisco (-2.5) at Seattle, 44
Detroit at Green Bay (-2.5), 47 - favorite flipped
Houston at LA Rams (-2.5), 44
Baltimore at Buffalo (pk), 51.5 - SNF
Minnesota (-2) at Chicago, 43.5 - MNF Sept. 8, favorite flipped

Eight division games in Week 1 with five road favorites. Check back late week for added stats and any additional tips, totals and trends. 

Notable Week 1 matchups with 2025 offensive and defensive line rankings, Pro Football Focus.

- Dallas (23, 12) at Philadelphia (1, 2). Last year rushing offense DAL 100 ypg, PHI 179 ypg (#2 in NFL), Eagles top-5 run defense (102), Cowboys bottom 5 (137)
- Kansas City (20, 15) at Los Angeles Chargers (12, 19) 
- New York Giants (28, 3) at Washington (19, 31). Commanders No. 3 on rush offense (154/game) last year, but No. 31 in run defense (143)
- Cincinnati (31, 25) at Cleveland (27, 7). Both teams bottom-5 rushing offense last year at 93-94 yards per game. 
- Tampa Bay (6, 27) at Atlanta (8, 30)
- San Francisco (12, 21) at Seattle (30, 23) - both teams 120-125 rushing ypg last year. 
- Detroit (13, 6) at Green Bay (14, 24) - both teams top-7 run defenses last year allowing 103 ypg.
- Minnesota (7, 16) at Chicago (4, 18) - Vikings No. 2 run defense (93 ypg) last year, Bears bottom-6 (136).

Bet on College Football futures at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

NFL Season Wins And Odds

Each teams total season wins and division odds from BetOnline. 

NFC East 

PHI 11.5 (-145), WSH 9.5 (+200), DAL 7.5 (+700), NYG 5.5 (+1800)

NFC West

SF 10.5 (+145), LAR 9.5 (+200), AZ 8.5, (+400), SEA 8 (+500

NFC North

GB 10.5 (+160), DET 10.5 (+185), MIN 8.5 (+325), CHI 8.5 (+650)

NFC South

TB 9.5 (+110), ATL 7.5 (+195), CAR 6.5 (+450), NO 4.5 (+1600)

AFC East

BUF 11.5 (-300), NE 8.5 (+550), MIA 7.5 (+650), NYJ 5.5 (+1400)

AFC West

KC 11.5 (-120), DEN 9.5 (+275), LAC 9.5 (+350), LV 6.5 (1400)

AFC North

BAL 11.5 (-170), CIN 9.5 (+275), PIT 8.5 (+500), CLE 5.5 (+2500)

AFC South

HOU 9.5 (+100), JAX 7.5 (+275), IND 7.5 (+350), TEN 5.5 (+700)

Follow my rushing to the window updates and rushing stats this season as I document boxscore data each week in spread sheets. I research and evaluate more including yards per play, yards per rush, PFF rankings with offensive line and defensive line plus other stats with information you can bet on.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with top of the leaderboard success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.