Early Look Ahead at the 2023 Regular Season Week 1 NFL Schedule and Odds
The NFL released the full 2023 regular season schedule on May 11, and fans and bettors are evaluating the schedules and Week 1 betting lines that are now available at many leading online sportsbooks.
The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will kick off the season at home versus the Detroit Lions on Week 1 Thursday Night Football Sept. 7. The Chiefs are a sizeable 7-point favorite, but the Baltimore Ravens (-10) are the biggest Week 1 favorites at home against the Houston Texans.
BetOnline oddsmakers project the closest game to take place on Monday night, where the Buffalo Bills are just a 1.5-point road favorite against New York Jets and new QB Aaron Rodgers.
Below are the initial lines for the first week of professional football, courtesy of BetOnline and online sportsbook affiliate SportsBetting.ag. As you review the match-ups, odds and betting lines with totals in the months ahead, be sure to read and review NFL teams strength of schedule using season win totals as a more useful guide to direct you to more winners.
Those will include our 2023 NFL underdog picks, which are 162-117 ATS (58.1%) with 92 outright 'Dog winners the past six years posting at Off Shore Gaming Association. You can bet we'll land on some of the six home underdogs for our future Week 1 picks as Fairway's Football Forecast evaluate rosters and NFL news in the months ahead. Continue to monitor key injuries and/or trades that may impact the NFL betting lines and futures bets including Super Bowl odds for the 2024 Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
|Week 1 Matchup||Spread||Total|
|Detroit at Kansas City||Chiefs -7||54.5|
|Carolina at Atlanta||Falcons -3||43.5|
|Houston at Baltimore||Ravens -10||44.5|
|Cincinnati at Cleveland||Bengals -2.5||48|
|Jacksonville at Indianapolis||Jaguars -3.5||44|
|Tampa Bay at Minnesota||Vikings -7||46|
|Tennessee at New Orleans||Saints -3.5||41.5|
|San Francisco at Pittsburgh||49ers -3||41.5|
|Arizona at Washington||Commanders -6.5||40|
|Green Bay at Chicago||Bears -2.5||45|
|Las Vegas at Denver||Broncos -3||45|
|Miami at Los Angeles||Chargers -2.5||50.5|
|Philadelphia at New England||Eagles -4.5||46|
|Los Angeles at Seattle||Seahawks -6.5||46|
|Dallas at New York Giants (SNF)||Cowboys -3||47|
|Buffalo at New York Jets (MNF)||Bills -1.5||46|
The Ravens, Bears, Commanders, Falcons, 49ers and Vikings have all seen a 1 to 1.5-point line move upwards as favorites since the leading online sportsbooks posted Week 1 lines less than 24 hours ago.
NFL Week 1 Trends
- Using research from FOX Sports, double-digit underdogs are 12-7 ATS (63.2%) and 3-16 SU (16%) in Week 1 games since 2000. However, since 2010, Week 1 double-digit 'Dogs (like 2023 Texans) are 6-3 ATS.
- Last year there were a record 10 road favorites in Week 1, and in 2023 there are six including the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football and the Bills on Monday Night Football. Those games will be among the biggest bet contests of Week 1 with not only marquee division match-ups and QB Aaron Rodgers now playing for the Jets, but the New York betting market topping US sports betting and wagering since it's launch in January, 2022.
- Divisional home underdogs are 17-7-1 SU and 21-4 ATS in Week 1 since 2009. That includes 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS last year (Vikings and Falcons) as we noted in our early-season NFL insights and betting data. In 2021 there was just one division home underdog, and the big ugly Houston Texans won outright. In Week 1 of the 2023 season, four teams line up as division home underdogs - Browns, Colts, Giants and Jets.
See you in the months ahead and look forwarding to providing more winning picks and NFL insight with information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.