American League Futures Betting – Could the Red Sox actually take the AL East?

Many think the Red Sox could be the team to beat in the AL East

Customers at the top online sportsbooks may have noticed, the Boston Red Sox came into spring training with a lot of storylines.

The one that got the most attention revolved around third baseman Rafael Devers. The Sox had an opportunity to acquire Alex Bregman, a Gold Glove third sacker with power, who had most recently been with Houston. They went ahead and signed Bregman, perhaps with the expectation that they could get Devers to move to the DH spot. 

But Devers refused to do that. And it’s a good thing that Bregman is such a good teammate, or else it could have been a big headache. But Bregman was willing to move to second base, and the consensus is that the situation may soften as the season progresses. 

The Red Sox may have the finest minor league system in baseball, and it has three of the top dozen prospects in the game. Those three players might be a big part of the story by the time the 2025 season draws to a close.

Another factor that may loom large is that the New York Yankees, who are the favorites in the division (+175), will be going into the regular season without two of its best starting pitchers, and one of them (Gerrit Cole) is out for the whole season, as he has to have Tommy John surgery.

Will Boston be in a position to take advantage of this?

Here’s what the oddsmakers have to say…..

American League Futures odds from BetOnline:

To win World Series:  +1600
To win AL Pennant:  +700
To win AL East division: +260
To make playoffs: Yes -145, No +115
Over/Under Total Wins: Over 86.5 (-140), Under 86.5 (+110)

Walker Buehler suffered through injuries last year, and was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA for the Dodgers, but when he was healthier, in the postseason, he gave up just five hits over ten scoreless innings in the last two series, including the World Series.

Boston went out and got Garrett Crochet, who was the best pitcher on a very bad White Sox team. He’s got a very live fastball, striking out almost 13 batters per nine innings last year. And he will have the #1 spot in the rotation.

Tanner Houck is another solid member of the starting staff. He had a 3.12 ERA last season and had the stingiest home run frequency in the American League.

Lucas Giolito did not pitch at all last season, as he needed elbow surgery. He exercised a $19 million option for 2025, and will most likely get a late start to the season. Giolito had a nice three-year run with the White Sos, which included an All-Star nod, but he hasn’t really had a good year since 2021. So what can manager Alex Cora expect of him?

Brayan Bello (14-8, 4.49 ERA), who’s got a shoulder injury, will begin the season on the IL. Kutter Crawford probably won’t be available until May at the earliest. Crawford led the AL in home runs allowed last year, but he also had the lowest WHIP ratio among Boston’s starting pitchers. Amidst this atmosphere, Richard Fitts (1.74 ERA in four starts) will get a fair shot to crack the rotation.

The bullpen has a chance to be good. Aroldis Chapman, who’s been known to throw heat but is aging, was picked up in the off-season. He joins Justin Slaten (2.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP). Garrett Whitlock made four solid starts last year (1.96 ERA), but thinks he can stay healthier if he returns to the bullpen. Liam Hendriks is a cancer survivor who has also undergone Tommy John surgery, but keep in mind that prior to that, the 36-year-old Aussie may have been the best reliever in the majors.

Triggering Boston’s offense is outfielder Jarren Duran, who is ready to become one of the premier players in the AL, if he isn’t there already. Duran hit 21 HR’s, led the league in doubles and triples, stole 34 bases, had a .342 on-base percentage and was the MVP of the All-Star Game. More speed comes from David Hamilton, who swiped 33 bases and is looking for a place to fit in. First baseman Triston Casas missed a lot of time with injury, but two years ago he had 24 round-trippers and was third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Whatever happens with Devers, he’ll hit homers; he’s had 126 over the last four seasons. The flip side is that he’s no wizard with the glove; perhaps the AL’s worst at the hot corner. Bregman, who’d be a big upgrade defensively at third, was the National League MVP runner-up in 2019, with 41 home runs and a .423 on-base average.

Trevor Story could be a difference-maker if he can remain healthy. He was a big home run hitter in the thin air of Colorado, but he’s played 100+ games only once in the lazy five seasons. If he’s close top 100% he gives Cora some flexibility, as he can play second and shortstop, as well as the DH.

The arrival of the three prospects can loom large, as there is conceivably a spot for all of them. Outfielder Roman Anthony is the consensus pick as the #1 prospect in baseball. He’s a power-speed combo guy, but at age 20, the Sox are cautious about rushing him. Wilyer Abreu could be starting the season on the IL, so this could be Anthony’s opening.

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<pKristian Campbell might ultimately land at second base if the Red Sox are able to convince Devers to go to DH (which would land Bregman at third). And if neither Story nor Ceddanne Rafaela aren’t satisfactory at short, it could be time for Marcelo Mayer, who had a 1.028 OPS in his first dozen spring games.

It remains to be seen how players bounce on or off of this Boston roster, but this could be a team with some depth among position players. One way or another, we think the starting rotation is going to more than adequate. And there are a lot of possibilities in the ‘pen.

The Red Sox won 81 games last year; they look at least that good this season. I’m not sure there’s a lot of value in the "make the playoffs" proposition (-145), but we’d be willing to lay -140 on the "Over 86.5" win prop. 

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