Adam Silver opened the floodgates

Until the mid 2010s the stance by every U.S. sports league was that they opposed legalization of sports betting under any circumstances because of a fear of cheating and corruption. While sports leagues in the UK and much of Europe started to embrace sports betting as a way to raise money for teams via sponsorships (something that even they are now reconsidering), the U.S. sports leagues remained steadfast in its opposition citing historic gambling scandals. Five of the most famous include:

 -- ·       The 1919 Black Sox Scandal where many Chicago White Sox players threw the World Series to get paid off by the mob
 -- ·       The late 1940s and early 1950s NCAA point shaving scandal where many highly regarded players were accused and some arrested for making playing errors that caused the team to win by fewer points than the spread to help the mob make money. This scandal even led to the suspension of the Kentucky Wildcats program for two years
 -- ·       The banning of Pete Rose for life due to accusations he bet on baseball and possibly even against the Cincinnati Reds who he played for and managed for years (a claim  Rose denied until the day he died)
 -- ·       The 2006 NHL cheating scandal where a gambling syndicate involving hockey players and Wayne Gretzky’s wife were accused of placing thousands of illegal bets on sporting events. While not proven there was concerns of possible game fixing in the investigation
 -- ·       Tim Donaghy, an NBA referee betting with illegal bookmakers on games he officiated, and subsequent proof he called fouls to affect the spread

Not only did the leagues oppose betting on their sports, they made it clear that any player caught betting on any sports could lead to them being suspended and if they were caught betting on their own sports they would be banned for life.  In fact, there were signs in clubhouses warning players not to gamble and the NCAA even implemented a campaign called "Don’t Bet On It," where the league educated student-athletes about the dangers of sports wagering and how organized crime targets college sports in particular. They also outlined the penalties, including suspensions and jail time if caught betting. The schools also tried to convince students in the universities not to wager on NCAA games.

The NBA embraces sports betting

Despite the clear message against the dangers associated with sports betting, Adam Silver, the newly elected NBA Commissioner, wrote an op-ed in  the 2014 New York Times suggesting that sports betting should be licensed and regulated to take it away from the underground bookies and make it transparent so that betting can be monitored. Silver mentioned New Jersey voters approving sports betting in a 2010 referendum and betting in the UK becoming popular for his reasoning to push for regulated gambling:

"In light of these domestic and global trends, the laws on sports betting should be changed. Congress should adopt a federal framework that allows states to authorize betting on professional sports, subject to strict regulatory requirements and technological safeguards. These requirements would include mandatory monitoring and reporting of unusual betting-line movements; a licensing protocol to ensure betting operators are legitimate; minimum-age verification measures; geo-blocking technology to ensure betting is available only where it is legal; mechanisms to identify and exclude people with gambling problems; and education about responsible gaming.

Without a comprehensive federal solution, state measures such as New Jersey’s recent initiative will be both unlawful and bad public policy. Let me be clear: Any new approach must ensure the integrity of the game. One of my most important responsibilities as commissioner of the N.B.A. is to protect the integrity of professional basketball and preserve public confidence in the league and our sport. I oppose any course of action that would compromise these objectives. But I believe that sports betting should be brought out of the underground and into the sunlight where it can be appropriately monitored and regulated."

At first the other leagues opposed Silver’s stance  but they eventually agreed with Silver (or at least accepted it), and this lack of opposition was enough to convince SCOTUS to repeal PASPA in 2017. Even Roger Goodell, the President of the NFL, who for years said he would never approve sports betting under any circumstances, finally relented and did not oppose the repeal.

It’s thus quite ironic that the NBA has become the league that cheating scandals have erupted. There’s no question that Silver’s words have come back to haunt him since the lines are blurred between sports and betting and what was once taboo is now commonplace. But perhaps Silver’s biggest mistake was to not have said that he would only approve betting on the games itself and not proposition bets where someone bets on the outcome of a player’s performance.

A plethora of props

Prop bets were not that popular when betting was limited to underground bookies and offshore sportsbooks, but has taken off in the U.S. after PASPA was repealed. The biggest problem with prop bets is that they are too easy to manipulate and even the most sophisticated monitoring tools often fail to recognize when a player is purposely cheating. And unfortunately for Silver, basketball is probably the easiest game to manipulate. When a player drops an easy pass in football, swings at a terrible pitch in baseball or shoots the puck three feet wide in a hockey game, a quick look at sports betting markets can tell if there were suspicious betting patterns that could bring the possible error into focus. But in basketball, a player can purposely hit the rim with a shot, make a bad pass or travel with the basketball in a critical moment and it would not raise concerns since it just seems like a normal play. But a dropped football pass in a critical moment almost always raises alarms.

But aside from the ability to make bad plays to affect the spread or outcome, the sudden "sickness" that pulls players from games has caused outrage. One of the most egregious events where this happened was a small tennis tournament in Poland where Nikolai Davydenko, a heavy favorite in the match won the first set, yet betting continuously came in at Betfair on the underdog then Davydenko suddenly retired with an injury. Betfair, the betting exchange where most of the betting occurred suspended the market and refused to settle the market, citing unusual betting patterns and, in the end, just refunded all bets on the match saying that while they have no definitive proof, they were not prepared to reward almost undisputable cheating. Davydenko was never charged or suspended by the ATP for the same reason, that they could not prove unequivocally that Davydenko withdrew to win money for bettors. But after that, Davydenko never recovered his name and a large number of tennis fans just associate him with cheating.

More opportunities to cheat in basketball?

But again, that was to win the match and it was an individual sport. In basketball the two biggest cheating scandals, long after sports betting was regulated, included players pulling themselves from games to help win prop bets. This included Jontay Porter of the Toronto Raptors, who pulled himself from multiple games leading to the UNDER on his prop bets to come in and most recently Tony Rozier, who is accused of feigning a foot injury in 2023 while playing a game for the Charlotte Hornets as part of a betting scandal, where he was said to have helped bettors win a wager on him not to go over the total on some prop bets. It was revealed he told a friend who bet on him that he was going to pull himself early from the game and Porter similarly told people he was providing information to during the game, that he was pulling himself out. This could happen in other sports too, although in baseball, football or hockey players almost always go for MRIs afterwards or into concussion protocol, so faking injury would be far harder for players to get away with and would likely require team doctors to be in on the scandal to get away with it. But in NBA basketball a player can just say he doesn’t feel well and leave without much fanfare.

To make matters worse the NBA has been in denial and even though they eventually suspended Rozier and Chauncey Billups, who along with others are being charged with working with the mafia to fix land-based poker games, allowed Rozier to play for the Miami Heat even with the investigation going on. And the league almost immediately dismissed the accusations against Rozier when they came out saying they found no indication of wrongdoing, despite clear evidence (like with Davydenko) of very clear suspicious betting patterns in a game where the player could simply withdraw due to injury without any necessary follow-up by doctors.

The motivation is not money

Some league officials and Rozier’s lawyer argued that it made no sense for Rozier to throw a game, because in 2022 he signed a four-year deal worth $96 million, so why would he throw that all away to win a few dollars with illegal bookies or the mob? But what every psychologist and many gambling experts will say is that for some people no amount of money is enough and it is the thrill of getting away with it that drives the act, as it leads to a dopamine rush that can’t be matched. And Charlie Munger, the Vice President of Berkshire Hathaway, famously said that people will bet on themselves despite the risk, as long as the odds are on their side. Some note that at least one of the richest people in the world is delving into meme coins and selling watches, trading cards and  Bibles to help build their wealth even though they clearly don’t need the money. In the novel a Christmas Carol by Charles Dickens there is a passage where the ghost of Christmas Present presents two children under his cloak that he says represent ignorance and want.

"This boy is Ignorance. This girl is Want. Beware them both, and all of their degree, but most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased," the ghost says.

Unfortunately, that’s almost exactly what happens with betting in many cases. The desire to want more often outweighs the risk of losing everything and the ignorance to the reality of the situation makes them choose the illogical alternative. So, while the NBA and people defending Rozier may be right that the accusation is illogical, when it comes to betting that often is irrelevant. Just look at Jontay Porter. Porter pled guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud and looks like he could spend up to four years in jail. He had a whole career ahead of him and despite only having a contract worth about $411,000 with the Raptors for the 2023-2024 season, which is dwarfed by Rozier’s contract, it was still enough to give him a good lifestyle. But again, for him, it seems the risk was worth the reward, not because of the money, but the thrill.

That brings us back to the premise of this article. Adam Silver was probably right about sports betting. It was happening anyways so there was no reason for the leagues not to prosper from deals with betting companies and for betting to become transparent. But what Silver didn’t say was how they were going to prevent those with a clear gambling rush from taking advantage. In hindsight Silver probably should have pushed for props to be limited or disallowed or at the very least let players know that they are being watched carefully and if they pull themselves from games then all betting on them will be delved into with a fine-tooth comb.

Fortunately, it may not be too late and it appears that U.S. Senators have asked to talk to the NBA about the scandals and may even be pushing for a props ban. No doubt regulated sportsbooks will object to this vehemently since props and same game parlays are their biggest money maker, but until something can be done to ensure that the integrity of games is upheld, a ban may be their only option.

As Dickens wrote “most of all beware this boy, for on his brow I see that written which is Doom, unless the writing be erased,” and let there be no mistake, unless something is done now to prevent players being willing to risk their livelihood to help win a prop bet for themselves or criminals, the industry is headed for doom.

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