Something Must Give in Titans/Chiefs Matchup

The Kansas City Chiefs will enter the AFC Championship Game having gone an unblemished 7-0 SU&ATS in their previous 7 games. They won those contests by a decisive average of 16.9 points per game. The Chiefs will also be riding the momentum from last week’s Divisional Round win over Houston in which they overcame a 24-0 deficit to win 51-31. Kansas City not only came back from the dead to win that game, but they also covered as a 7.5-point favorite. Strangely enough, the current (1/18) AFC Championship Game betting odds at BetOnline is displaying Kansas City as an identical 7.5-point home favorite.

Sunday will be the Tennessee Titans 4th road game in as many weeks. Since 1980, NFL teams playing four straight games on the road has transpired only 13 times. Digging deeper, there’s been 4 such occurrences since 2016, and the road teams went 0-4 SU&ATS in those games and lost by an average of 13.3 points per contest. However, we must keep in mind, Tennessee is 5-0 SU&ATS during its last 5 road games, which includes this year’s postseason wins at New England (12-5) and Baltimore (14-3).

The Weather Outside is Frightful

It will be an extremely cold and windy day on Sunday in Kansas City. Meteorologists are predicting temperatures in the low 20’s and winds of 10-12 MPH. Since 2003, NFL games with winds of 10 MPH or greater have gone 494-388 (56%) under the total. Yet, the top online offshore sportsbooks have seen this total go from an opener of 51.5 to 52.5 or 53.0. The public certainly hasn't been deterred by those adverse weather conditions as 59% of bets have been made on going over the total.

Earlier Meeting

It will be a 2nd time this season that the Tennessee Titans and Kansas Chiefs will have faced one another. Back on 11/10/2019 they squared off in Nashville and Tennessee walked away with a 35-32 win. The Titans covered that contest as a 5.0-point underdog and it easily went over the total of 49.0. The teams combined for an enormous 901 yards of total offense.

The Derek Henry Factor

Tennessee’s star running back Derek Henry has been on quite a roll over the last 8 games. During that stretch, Henry has rushed for 1273 yards and 11 touchdowns. Henry ran for 103 yards or more in 7 of those 8 contests. The lone time he didn’t eclipse the century mark was still an impressive 86-yard day against Houston. Ironically, Henry’s red-hot running efforts began in the previously mentioned game against Kansas City. He ran for 188 yards and 2 touchdowns on that day which was a huge contributing element that paved the way for a Titans victory.

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Patrick Mahomes Factor

With regards to the Chiefs and Texans earlier season matchup, Patrick Mahomes was brilliant in that contest while throwing for 446 yards and three touchdowns. Moreover, he was outstanding during last week's stirring comeback win over Houston. Mahomes torched the Texans defense for 321 yards passing in addition to throwing for 5 touchdowns.

Tannehill’s Struggles in Cold Weather

Ryan Tannehill has made 4 career starts when game time temperatures were 40 degrees or less. He went 1-3 in those outings. Tannehill was 72-124 (58%) passing and for just 723 yards. Additionally, he did manage to throw for 4 touchdowns but was also intercepted 6 times.

Final Thoughts

This AFC Championship Game is a very intriguing matchup. Will Derek Henry be able to sustain his dominance? Can Patrick Mahomes pick up where he left off in the first meeting against Tennessee? Will Kansas City be able to extend their present 7-0 SU&ATS run? Or will Tennessee add to their 5-game road win streak? We’ll know all the answers by around 6:30 PM ET on Sunday.

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com