The Breeders' Cup this year takes place at Del Mar Racetrack near San Diego. The last time Del Mar held the Cup was in 2021 when two Japanese horses won the Filly & Mares Turf and the Distaff. Asian trained horses have generally avoided making the trek to the U.S. since they fared poorly prior to 2021, combined with the high cost of shipping the horses. The 2021 Cup, however, proved that Japanese horses can compete with the best and this year there are 19 Japanese horses running, of which five are considered among the favorites for their races. Del Mar also held the Cup in 2017.

European horses have fared quite well in the turf races held previously in California and it’s expected they will dominate most of the turf races unless some of the Japanese horses can show them up.

As has been the case for the last few cups, the Friday races are reserved for the two year olds, so here is a look at the5 Juvenile races on Friday.

Juvenile Turf Sprint

The Breeders' Cup starts off with the most difficult race to handicap. Five horses are under 10/1 odds in the morning line and several others can’t be counted out.

The morning line favorite is the Japanese horse Ecoro Sieg who won his only 2 races in Japan, just toying with the field at 2/5 odds in both races. He will likely be on or near the lead and if the pace is right, he could be hard to beat. His trainer Hideyuki Mori is sending out most of the Japanese contingent in the Breeders' Cup and it appears he is a very successful trainer with 60 horses under his watch, of which several or Group 1 winners. Whistlejacket has three wins and three seconds in 7 starts in Europe, including a win in a Group 1 race in France in August. His prep race in September saw him lose in the closing strides making one wonder if he can win, if the pace is fast. He is trained by Aidan O’Brien who has seven previous Breeders' Cup wins, most with Ryan Moore as Jockey who will be aboard Whistlejacket. Ides of March is another O’Brien trained horse with Frankie Dettori aboard. The horse struggled in his first two races in Ireland, but won the last two fairly easily. His times seem to be a bit slower than the others, although he will be closing. Aesterius won two of his first four races in Britain and then after a break won his last two races. In the latest race he just beat Big Mojo, who looked set to win the Group 2 race before tiring. Of the American horses, Governor Sam, who lost his first race but has since won four races, including an impressive last race at Keeneland, seems to be the biggest threat. Magnum Force was favored over Aesterius and Big Mojo but finished 3rd in the race at Doncaster and can’t be counted out either.

Juvenile Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Ecoro Sieg (7/2) Second Choice: Whistlejacket (5/1). Long Shot Possibility: Magnum Force (15/1)

Juvenile Fillies

Scottish Lassie is the morning line favorite following a 9 length win in the Frizette Stakes at Aqueduct. While the win was impressive, it appears she didn’t beat much in that race and in her maiden she was soundly beaten by Quickick, who had a troubled race at Keeneland and despite a good late kick couldn’t pass Immersive, who made it three for three in her career. Immersive is owned by Godolphin Stables, which has 18 Breeders Cup wins and has proven of late that their horses can win on both the turf and dirt. William Buick usually races the prime Godolphin horses on the turf, but Manuel Franco will be in the saddle on Immersive. American Bikini is a Japanese horse that will be the clear speed horse in the race and she could steal it with Ryan Moore aboard if the pace is slow enough, although Nooni will likely not let her get away. Non Compliant is the best California horse in the race and is 2 for 2 for Bob Baffert, including an impressive win in the Oak Leaf. Vodka With a Twist was quite impressive in the Del Mar Debutante last time out, but the rail won’t help her chances.

Juvenile Fillies Prediction: Winner: Immersive (3/1) Second Choice: Non Compliant (9/2) Long Shot Possibility: Quickick (10/1)

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Lake Victoria is the morning line favorite and rightly so. The Aidan O’Brien trained horse is 4 for 4 in England and Ireland, including consecutive Group 1 races. Her times are excellent and the rail should actually help her since the race is around two turns, which favors inside horses, plus she likes to set the pace. Thought Process, the California horse was beaten on the dirt in her debut but has racked up three solid wins on the turf. She has the best Beyer figures in the race and is a definite threat. Heaven’s Gate has had seven races for O’Brien with mixed results, but seems to be a bit behind Lake Victoria. Kilwin and May Day Ready will be charging at the end.

Juvenile Fillies Turf Prediction: Winner: Lake Victoria (8/5), Second Choice: Thought Process (5/2) Long Shot Possibility: None

Juvenile

Ten horses will be taking part in the Juvenile and East Avenue is the favorite after two massive wins, including an 8 length win in his maiden win followed by a 5.5 length win in the Breeders' Cup Futurity at Keeneland. The biggest hindrance for East Avenue could be the rail and a good deal of pace to keep him honest. Chancer McPatrick has drawn the outside post but has back to back Grade 1 wins in New York in the Hopeful and Champagne Stakes. He likes to close and will be hoping for fast pace. Jonathan’s Way who won the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs could help create that pace as can Citizen Bull, who went wire to wire in the American Pharaoh Stakes at Santa Anita. Gaming is 2-for-2 for Bob Baffert, including a 5 length win over Citizen Bull in the Del Mar Futurity. Ferocious was beaten by both East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick, but had issues in both races. In the last race against East Avenue, Ferocious was the even money favorite but was jumpy in the gate, got bumped in the turn and still managed to hold on for second. This race also features two Japanese horses with Shin Believe, who won his only race in Japan at 1 1/8 miles, and Ecoro Azel, who was soundly beaten by American Bikini and seems like a hope and a prayer here. Trainer Hideyuki Mori sends out both horses so he may be using the latter horse as a rabbit although with so much closing power it could backfire.

Juvenile Prediction: Winner: Ferocious (6/1) Second Choice: Chancer McPatrick (3/1). Long Shot Possibility: Shin Believe (10/1)

Juvenile Turf

In a very difficult to handicap race, New Century is the 3/1 morning line favorite having won the Summer Stakes at Woodbine. He had mixed success in his 4 prior races in Europe and horses that qualify from wins at Woodbine tend to struggle in the Breeders' Cup. Al Quadra was also in that race and went off as the big favorite for Godolphin Stables, but came home second after being bumped multiple times in the stretch drive. Like New Century he was hit and miss in Europe prior to the race at Woodbine. Henri Mattise has three wins and a 2nd in 5 races for Aidan O’Brien, but has drawn the outside post, which could hurt, although he appears to be a closer. He has definitely been more impressive in Europe than the two morning line favorites. Aomori City has drawn post 12 and is another Godolphin owned horse with William Buick as the jockey. Despite being the higher price it is quite notable that Buick, who would have been given first choice, decided to ride Aomori City over Al Quadra. Aomori City has a Group 2 win at Goodwood. Satono Carnaval draws the rail and is 2 for 2 in Japan including an impressive Group 2 win. He stretches out for this race. Zulu Kingdom is 3 for 3 with narrow wins in each race, although Flavien Prat is always dangerous in the Breeders' Cup. Mentee lost all chance in the Hopeful Stakes, but won the Futurity at Aqueduct easily in his next race, and will be trying turf for the first time. Seagulls Eleven and The Waco Kid have both had some good runs in Europe. That said, this is an absolute tossup, so I’ll be looking to outsiders to pull this off.

Juvenile Turf Prediction: Winner: Aomori City (10/1) Second Choice: Henri Mattise (6/1). Long Shot Possibility: Satono Carnaval (20/1)

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