Deflategate affects Patriots’ NFL Super Bowl Odds

The overblown scandal has changed the odds of the New England Patriots returning to the Super Bowl. However, after reviewing several online sportsbooks, we are not seeing any knee-jerk reactions from oddsmakers.

The overblown scandal, Deflategate, has changed the odds of the New England Patriots returning to the Super Bowl, due to the suspension imposed by the NFL on Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady. No matter whether you love or hate the Patriots, Brady is one of the top quarterbacks of all-time and despite this nonsense, he will be heading to the Hall of Fame. But according to posted Super Bowl Future Odds, the Patriots now face a tougher road to Super Bowl 50 without him for four games. However, after reviewing several online sportsbooks, we are not seeing any knee-jerk reactions from oddsmakers.

Elite-rated Bovada had the Patriots as the second favorite on the board to return to the Super Bowl at 7-1 odds just last week. But the Patriots now sit behind the Green Bay Packers (7-1) and Indianapolis Colts (8-1), in addition to the overall favorite NFL Super Bowl future oddsSeattle Seahawks (11/2), at odds of 10-1 in the NFL futures betting odds. Irish bookmaker and industry-giant Paddy Power however, has moved their number very little, leaving the Patriots at 7.5-1 and keeping them as the favorite to win the AFC Championship at 7-2. Still, most U.S.-facing online sportsbooks and the casinos in Las Vegas all have taken the Deflategate bait, despite the fact that Tom Brady is sure to appeal his current four-game suspension.

Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager at Bovada said, “Until we know if Tom Brady appeals his suspension, which is likely, and then the result of the appeal we are not over-adjusting too much on the Patriots odds. Their Super Bowl odds only went from 7/1 to 10/1 and they remain the second favorite behind the Colts in the AFC and are still the favorites in the AFC East. So despite all the hype, it did not affect our odds as much as one would have expected.”

Odds to win the 2016 Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks   11/2
Green Bay Packers   7/1
Indianapolis Colts    8/1
Dallas Cowboys      10/1
New England Patriots 10/1
Denver Broncos       11/1
Philadelphia Eagles  18/1
Arizona Cardinals    25/1
Baltimore Ravens    25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers  25/1
New York Giants     28/1
Buffalo Bills           33/1
Cincinnati Bengals   33/1
Detroit Lions          33/1
Kansas City Chiefs  33/1
Miami Dolphins       33/1
New York Jets         33/1
San Francisco 49ers  33/1
St. Louis Rams       33/1
Atlanta Falcons      40/1
Carolina Panthers    40/1
New Orleans Saints  40/1
Chicago Bears         50/1
Houston Texans      50/1
Minnesota Vikings    50/1
San Diego Chargers   50/1
Oakland Raiders      66/1
Cleveland Browns     75/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1
Washington Redskins   100/1
Jacksonville Jaguars    200/1
Tennessee Titans        200/1

NFL futures for total team wins by the Patriots has seen very little change in the number at Bovada, dropping just a half game. Added Kevin Bradley, “Their win total, that I would have opened at 10.5, is only down half a win to 10.” However, many of the online sports betting giants like 5Dimes and BetOnline have simply taken New England off the board for now.

Everyone seems to think that Brady will appeal the suspension and get it down to maybe two games, but in the betting arena, the Patriots are obviously more than just Tom Brady. But, if Brady does have to sit out the first four games and Jimmy Garoppolo is forced fill in as the Patriots starting QB, it is hard to believe that the Pats will be better than 2-2 upon his return. In the end, all of this hype and nonsense could make for a nice NFL future bet.

As a side note Bovada is the only sportsbook with a Brady proposition bet right now. They have a wager on the length of the suspension, should Brady appeal. Current odds favor no change to the four game suspension, even in the face of appeal. Bovada’s odds are below.

If Tom Brady appeals his Suspension what will the initial result of the appeal be?
Remains a 4 game Suspension 11/10
3 game suspension     4/1
2 game suspension     7/5
1 game suspension     7/1
No game suspension   10/1

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