Off Shore Gaming Association

Somewhere during dinner prayers this year squeezed between the desert troops and U.S. economic relief we owe a short acknowledgement to the NFL schedule-maker. 

Oh dear NFL: Please continue planning meaningful games with high fan appeal on Thanksgiving offering much more than pure betting interest.  And could you also offer FREE THANKSGIVING NFL NETWORK TOTAL ACCESS for the needy and poor? 

The Lions actually play a holiday home game with much more than a prize turkey and covering the spread at stake.  And “America’s Team” is tied for first place in the NFC East playing a Miami Dolphins squad riding a three game winning streak. Too bad they’re “Out of Luck” disappointing their fans.   The Brothers Harbaugh will make league history in the finale.  Who would ever predict the Ravens and 49ers possibly have a longshot chance of meeting again in this year’s Super Bowl? 

Green Bay -6.5 /56 at Detroit (12:30 PM ET on FOX)

With a strong wild card slot on the line, Ford Field will be rocking and giving Lions fans something truly meaningful to root for.  Combine that with some recent nasty Packer beatings on Thanksgiving, no one in blue will have to look hard for any incentive.
 
On the field it’s a different story.  So hard to bet against the Pack at full strength until they have a number one playoff spot locked-up.  While playing their worst game of the season last week against Tampa Bay, Aaron Rodgers still effortlessly lit up the Bucs defense.  This is a division game, a big national television game and therefore Green Bay shouldn’t fall asleep while pursuing a secondary goal of an undefeated season.

Lion’s backers likely threw in the towel last Sunday, being down 24-7 to the Panthers as a 6 point favorite, only to celebrate while crushing Carolina in the second half to cover.  You won’t see that happen very often.  An inspirational finish in College Football but a red flag in the pros. 

As for the point total, Mr. Linesmaker doesn’t put up 56 to 57 points by accident.  The highest number of the NFL season thus far.  This surely won’t be a 20-17 game.  The drama might be deciding the total in the final two minutes but don’t expect any easy cover going under.

PICK:  A very slight nod to the PACKERS -6.  A more confident play OVER 56

Miami at Dallas -7 / 44 (4:15 PM ET on CBS)

No truth to the rumor Leon Lett will toss the opening kick-off coin to commemorate the 18th anniversary of the NFL’s Top Ten blunders of all time.  I’m still regurgitating pumpkin pie remembering my Cowboys bet as Leon came crashing down in the snow after the blocked field goal. The Fins converted another chance, a win and a cover over the Boys.  That held up in Cowpokes lure until Tony Romo botched the snap in the Seahawks playoff game.

OK, can’t change yesterday.  The Dolphins are going nowhere this year despite three wins over bad teams and the Cowboys are in first place after three wins over bad teams.  So what does that mean and who is going to cover?
A very competitive game and a very difficult case ATS to make either way.

While Romo has looked sharp at times, the Cowboys still have a bunch of key injured players and a few playing hurt on both sides of the ball.  Third round pick DeMarco Murray could be a real find to complement their passing offense.  When healthy, the Cowboys can compete with anyone.  Will they ever find a decent kicking game in their history?  An area they’ve overlooked for thirty years. 

A bizarre situation for the Dolphins, who in reality would be helping themselves by losing to acquire the starting quarterback they desperately need.  Keep winning and they lose out, selecting perhaps the second or third college QB choice available.

The reality is no professional football players slacks it, especially with a national TV audience watching.  Miami has been playing proud defense in November but look for that trend to falter here.  The Cowboys at home offer much more of a challenge than the Chiefs, Redskins and Bills.  Starting quarterback Matt Moore is an average back-up, who has might have earned a permanent back-up job for next year with Chad Henne hurt. 

PICK: Cowboys – 7 

San Francisco at Baltimore -3 / 39 (8:20 PM ET on NFL Network)

Shame on the evil NFL that only paid subscribers will have the privilege of watching the Harbaugh brothers lead their teams onto the field.  On a quiet holiday evening, we would have likely seen one of the largest TV audiences ever for a regular season game.

As the Packers may prove this year, you can “win em’ all” but surely you can’t “cover em’ all” according to wagering logic and statistics.  The 49ers haven’t lost a game to the spread this year and this may be their greatest challenge in Baltimore.  Along with the Steelers, the Ravens are known as the league’s toughest team at home and need this game to keep pace in their division.

The big intangible is which Joe Flacco will show up?  The guy who looked dazed a month ago in Jacksonville or the hero known to fire up pin-point bombs on occasion.  Fortunately, he’s had reliable Ray Rice to bail out a mediocre at best season thus far.  On defense, the Ravens are the NFL’s BEST but likely minus Hall Of Famer Ray Lewis again on Thursday night.  Look for Ray to be screaming at his teammates all night from the sidelines.

Kudos to Alex Smith of the Niners.  No doubt Jim Harbaugh has been the difference in bringing out his confidence and ability this season.    Also wondering when RB Frank Gore will get his due, the NFL’s most underrated player.

San Francisco’s success and likely cemented number two playoff spot bye is more due to their defense, which was coming around last year.  Give some credit to departed coach Mike Singletary plus super tackler Patrick Willis, a great leader and motivator.  Perhaps for the first time in their existence the 49ers have a Pro Bowl kicker in David Akers, a great acquisition from the Eagles.

This adds up to a game too tough to call.  Without red zone turnovers look for a very low scoring game and a much better Under opportunity.

PICK:  UNDER 39

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It was recently announced that the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) and Groupe Bernard Tapie (GBT) came to an agreement that would allow GBT to purchase the assets of Full Tilt. Under the agreement, GBT would pay the DoJ $80 million and GBT would be responsible to pay back non-U.S. customers. American customers would have to apply to the DoJ to get their funds returned and speculation has surfaced that the DoJ would use the $40 million left in Full Tilt’s bank account along with fines levied against former Full Tilt shareholders to pay American players back. If that is indeed the final arrangement, the U.S. payers could be waiting a while. I spoke with someone who formerly worked in the U.S. Justice Department and asked him what he made of the arrangement. His comments were clear “the Department of Justice doesn’t work that way.” In better words, the DoJ doesn’t pay back people it believed were violating the law. It is quite possible that the DoJ will arrange with another company to facilitate payback to players but the checks will not come with a U.S. government seal on them and they won’t be coming from any moneys seized by the DoJ.

In 2007 after the DoJ arrested the NETeller founders and then seized all U.S. funds in transit, they worked with Navigant Consulting to arrange payback of players that were owed money. But the money came from NETeller itself and the DoJ in turn kept all money it seized claiming it was going to spend more than that prosecuting the case. Later when the DoJ shut down BetonSports, the DoJ kept all funds it received from Gary Kaplan and others and instead allowed Vantis Plc, a trustee in bankruptcy, to try and sell off some assets to pay back the players and other creditors. While Vantis was hired by the Antigua government, the DoJ was kept informed of the whole situation. Vantis tried to get the DoJ to release the fines for payment to players but the DoJ effectively laughed at the notion. Consequently, players received about 5 cents on the dollar. And in numerous other instances where the DoJ seized money from payment processors that were said to be operating for illegal gambling businesses, the DoJ kept all the money and never gave it a second thought. In fact, the money seized from Full Tilt processors itself would be sufficient to pay back U.S. players, but the DoJ never entertained that notion.

Asked why the DoJ never considers returning money from fines or seized funds, the former DoJ employee said that it would simply set a bad precedent. The FBI posted notices on its site telling Americans that if they bet at offshore establishments they are breaking the law and to return money directly to them would effectively be seen by them as abetting a crime. Moreover, if they suddenly agreed to use seized assets to pay Full Tilt players, then customers that got railroaded at BetonSports could possibly go to court asking for that situation to be reopened, since the DoJ has indicated a change in policy.

So the $64,000 question now is where that leaves U.S. players owed money at Full Tilt. One possibility is that the DoJ will ask GBT to use its own funds to pay back U.S. players as a show of good faith, but that scenario is unlikely since there is no reason for the group to cooperate. Americans are now off limits to the new Full Tilt and even if the U.S. changes its laws and allows offshore companies to apply for a license in a regulated environment, it’s almost certain that any companies that once dealt with the U.S. players would be barred. That would include Full Tilt and PokerStars. GBT needs its funds to pay back non U.S. players and rebrand the product. The U.S. customers are likely far down their list of issues to address. Another possibility is that the DoJ would release the $40 million that was in Full Tilt accounts (if they agree it wasn’t a fine) and ask the other shareholders like Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan to come up with the difference to pay back customers. But again that is unlikely since Ivey and others have made it clear they don’t feel responsible. The far more likely scenario is that the DoJ will release the $40 million along with a few other funds it deems were assets of the company and distribute that to players who submit claims for repayment via a company like Navigant. Many players won’t bother submitting claims anyhow, fearing they will be put on a DoJ and IRS watch list (as was the case with NETeller) and in the end players would only get a portion of their funds back.

The purchase by GBT is indeed good news to U.S. players but if they believe they will be repaid directly from the DoJ and without strings attached they’re living in fantasy land.

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In a sudden twist of fate the 2011 OSGA Last Man Standing Contest has ended . . . and not because we have a ‘Last Man’ left standing. As the contest wore on players busted out in droves, with more than half of the players eligible for the consolation prize – a $25 Free Play at BetBadlands.co – for players who were out in the first four weeks. As of last week, there were just five players picking one game to stay alive.

This was the second time OSGA offered the Last Man Standing Contest, after a successful competition in 2010. Each week players had to pick just one single winner – again, straight up. But, throughout the course of the entire NFL season, no team could be selected twice. This “one-and-done” event was co-sponsored by Badlands Gambling Hall who again offered up huge Free betting accounts for the top four finishers including a $1000 free gambling account for the Last Man Standing. In all, Badlands offered up a $2500 prize pool.

Last week four of the 5 remaining contestant picked the heavily favored Philadelphia Eagles at home against the lowly Arizona Cardinals. The Eagles played terribly and four players went down with their sinking ship. Just ‘anjac’ was still alive with Baltimore, but that turned out badly for him as well. After his Eagles pick lost, bimmercardo emailed Sunday night, “Hope everyone took the fall today!“ It turned out he was right!

According to the rules of the contest, “If there is a tie at the end of the regular season (2 players left standing and they both lose) the remaining prizes will be divided among all those who were standing at the beginning of the week.” We never thought that the contest would end with 5 players standing and the entire prize pool still available to be split!

“This is unprecedented in any of the contest we have ever run,” said OSGA President Jim Quinn. “We are thrilled to be able to give 5 players a great prize like a Free $500 betting account at Badlands, but would have liked to see just One Last Man left Standing!”

The winners out of a field of nearly 100 players are anjac, bimmercardo, Goomba527, rick and swampman4761. All winners have been notified to contact BetBadlands.co to receive their prizes.

Congratulations to all that participated and those remaining five, who each got ‘lucky’ in week 10. ‘rick’ mentioned, “WOW Unbelieveable! After the Eagles dumped I thought ‘What if we all missed’ , Couldn’t happen!” .

We are happy to have a had another successful Last Man Standing Contest and look forward to hosting it again next season. Football contests are not over at OSGA as the Progressive Pick ‘Em is still running and in just a few weeks the annual College Bowl Pick’em will be available.

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After New Jersey’s overwhelming vote to pursue sports betting, Senator Ray Lesniak announced legislation that would see the product legalized in the state. The proposed plan would allow sports bets to be taken at casinos and racetracks which in turn would be subject to an 8% tax on gross revenues and a 1.25% investment tax. The only stipulation is that no bets will be allowed for games that take place in New Jersey and no bets will be offered for New Jersey based college teams regardless of where the game takes place. The reasoning behind those rules is to convince the professional leagues and NCAA that there is no threat of cheating to their leagues from the betting and thus neither they, nor the DoJ would have any reason to challenge New Jersey’s plans. According to sources New Jersey would see billions bet each year under their scenario.

So far neither the NFL nor NCAA have said anything about Lesniak’s announcement and surprisingly neither has the DoJ, but a Nevada lawyer close to the situation has told me that the leagues and DoJ may be the least of New Jersey’s concerns in attempting to amend PASPA. According to the source, Nevada Senator Harry Reid has been heard to mumble that he may block any bill put to the Senate to challenge PASPA if it aims at offering single game sports. When Delaware received the right to offer sports betting, the Senator likely wasn’t worried since it involves parlays on 3 or more NFL games, which isn’t really a serious competition for Nevada. But single game sports betting is. Some estimates have suggested that if Atlantic City casinos offered single game bets on the NFL and NCAA it could take away up to 5% of Nevada’s tourism for visitors from the Northeastern states, particularly around New Years and March Madness. Congressman Frank Pallone Jr. has promised to introduce legislation in the House tomorrow but even if it somehow passes the House, Reid as the Senate Majority leader can kill it on the spot by moving it off the agenda. While the Senate majority leader is supposed to work for citizens of all states, his job relies on the residents of Nevada. That state’s tourism is suffering greatly as a result of the downturned economy and housing prices in Nevada are among the lowest in the country. The source has said that Nevada wants the single game sports betting monopoly it has now and if Reid fails to come through for sportsbooks in Nevada it could cost him his job in 2014. Don’t forget Reid almost lost the election last year so any trip ups could see him lose next time out. At the same time it is believed that Reid will not block any legislation if it’s similar to Delaware. In better words if New Jersey was willing to offer sports betting on the NFL only and if it limits bets to 3 game or more parlays then Nevada won’t oppose it. It’s unlikely any other interests would oppose it either except maybe the legislature in Delaware who wouldn’t want competition from a close by state. Mind you that type of wagering doesn’t seem to interest New Jersey legislators who believe that PASPA is unconstitutional. Not only would it kill revenue projections that the state is hoping for but it would also paint them as weak.

Of course New Jersey can start a constitutional challenge of the law in the courts and avoid the House and Senate altogether, but most believe Governor Christie wouldn’t agree to that action and more importantly there is little interest from lawyers to take up that challenge. When I asked a well-known trade lawyer if his firm would take on the challenge for New Jersey, he replied “not if they aim to go forward with the challenge to PASPA as it stands. There’s no use in taking up a case in front of the Supreme Court that has no widespread legislative backing and no chance of winning.”

In any case Pallone’s legislation will go forth tomorrow. It’ll be interesting to see the reception it gets in the House from Congressmen like Barney Frank and Spencer Bachus.

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The Breeders Cup, also known as the Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing always brings on excitement. With purses in excess of $10 million the best horses usually come out. This year the 2 best horses in the world, Frankel and Black Caviar have not been entered by their connections but the absence of the best horses also can lead to great longshot opportunities. In this blog I’ll look at the contenders for each race.

FRIDAY’S BREEDERS’ CUP RACES:

Juvenile Sprint:
Secret Circle is the 6/5 morning line favorite and rightly so. The horse romped in 2 races including a 1:08 1/5 blowout in the J Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita. The only question is whether he will handle the cool weather of Churchill Downs. He draws a great post position and on his best effort nothing else appears to his quality. Look for the horse to go off at less than 4/5. He looks like a banker for any exotics.

Juvenile Fillies Turf:
This is another race that looks ready to go to a favorite. Elusive Kate, won 4 straight races including a 3 length runaway in a Group 1 race at Longchamp. On a repeat performance she won’t be beat. Somali Lemonade looks like her biggest competition and will be charging at the end but this race is rarely won by a massive closer. The longshot special in the race may be the Aidan O’Brien trained horse Up. Up lost his first race in Ireland but came back to win on the synthetic track at Dunkirk. Still, Up has the pedigree to be a real contender and you can never count out the combination of O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore in any race. Up is showing at about 30/1 in European futures and could be higher in the U.S. pools. At the price she’s worth a shot. Still Elusive Kate must be included in all exotics.

Fillies & Mare’s Turf Sprint:
I’ve been trying hard to beat the 6/5 morning line favorite Turbulent Descent but can’t do it. At the 7 furlong distance she’s won 3 races by a total of 10 lengths and beat most of the main contenders in this field. She’s been effective on both the east and west coast and will be tough. If there’s any drawback it’s that she hasn’t raced 3 months. That’s often a bad sign leading into the Breeder’s Cup. But her workouts during that time have been impeccable and there’s really nothing in the race that looks like it can beat her. Pomeroy’s Pistol looks to be Turbulent Descent’s main competition but considering the ease which the favorite beat her in the last race, there’s no reason to expect different in this race.

Juvenile Fillies:
Usually a race one by the favorite, the Juvenile Fillies looks like an upset special. The 1 1/16 mile distance is unkind to inside horses at Churchill in a large field, particularly if they are all speed. For that reason Bob Baffert’s horse Candrea can be tossed out. My Miss Aurelia and Grace Hall both look good on paper and will go off as the 2 favorites but I believe they are susceptible. Both will be on or near the lead and will encounter a speed dual with numerous horses which should allow for a closer to win. For that reason my pick for this one is Weemissfrankie. Weemissfrankie shows tactical speed and a nice late kick. She’ll love the distance and draws a prime post. Her times have been better than any and she has shown she can handle the dirt along with synthetic tracks.

Filly & Mare Turf:
Stacelita is the favorite having won 2 races in a row on yielding grass but she hasn’t fared as well on a firm turf which is what the weathermen are calling for at Churchill on Friday. Nahrain is undefeated, has one of the best jockeys in the world in Franco Dettori but I believe she’ll struggle to get the 1 3/8 distance. My picks are Announce, owned by Juddmonte Farms who has handled the distance with ease and just lost to Announce in the Prix de l’Opera with a late charge. Announce also beat Stacelita fairly easily in France earlier in the year and loves a firm turf. My longshot pick is Misty for Me. On the outside Misty for Me should get a good run and will handle the distance. What was particularly impressive was her 6th length win over Midday who is 2nd choice in the $3 million turf on Saturday. With her best effort she can beat this field.

Ladies’ Classic:
This race is a total tossup and may be worth wheeling several horses for the pick 6, win 4 etc. Plum Pretty is the favorite after an impressive win at Philadelphia in her last race but she struggled against others in the race at 1 1/8 and longer. Royal Delta and its Tricky took turns beating each other along with Plum Pretty although Royal Delta looks like she’ll appreciate the distance the most. My longshot pick in this one is Ultra Blend. She has the best closing kick and some tactical speed. If it’s a hot pace, look for her to sweep by them all. She also has a great post.

SATURDAY’S BREEDERS’ CUP RACES:

Marathon:
Even though it’s on the dirt the European’s dominate this Grade 2 race. A.U. Miner is the favorite but doesn’t deserve to be. The horse finished a well beaten 4th in the race last year and has shown little since. Brigantin looks like the real deal. A group 2 and group 3 winner in France the horse will easily handle the distance and has both tactical speed and a closing kick. Andre Fabre is one of the best trainers in the world and Julien Laproux is a leading jockey. Meeznah also looks like a contender at decent odds. The horse won a group 3 race at the distance in England earlier this year and a group 2 race at almost 2 miles in September. With a good pace she can run them down. Don’t count out Harrison’s Cave completely either for a huge longshot. The horse showed great efforts on the synthetic track in Ireland and has the Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore combination mentioned previously.

Juvenile Turf:
Fantastic Song is the undeserved morning line favorite here. The horse has a great closing kick but there are better options in this race. Finale, trained by Todd Pletcher is my pick. Showing little in 2 dirt races to start his career, Finale won the last 3 races easily on the turf in tremendous times. In his last race at Woodbine in Toronto, the horse encountered all kinds of trouble but still drew off at the end to win. He has the best jockey in America with John Velazquez aboard. Of the European horses, all seem to have great speed but may not handle the mile. Lucky Chappy, the Italian horse may be a play. He trailed the field badly in his first try at Keeneland but came charging like a freight train at the end and just lost by a couple of lengths to Animal Spirits. With a better start and less traffic trouble, Lucky Chappy could provide an upset.

Sprint:
Big Drama had 2 races since his win in this race last year winning both. His freshness will prove tough and there’s really no other horse that looks to his caliber. Jackson’s Bend is impressive but will likely need more than 6 furlongs.

Turf Sprint:
Easily the hardest race to handicap on the whole card. There is no horse that looks like a standout and no horse that can be tossed out. Havelock, Regally Ready and Caracortado look like the best 3 horses in the race but on their best Grand Adventure and Perfect Officer can provide the upset.

Dirt Mile:
Wilburn and Shackleford look like the 2 horses to beat in this one. Shackleford was game throughout the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness and just lost in the Haskell. If class counted for everything he would win. He looked like a standout in the Indiana Derby in his last race but lost by 4 lengths to Wilburn. The horse is clearly coming into his own and if he keeps improving should win. Don’t count out Jersey Town for an upset possibility.

Turf:
Forget the U.S. runners this race is between the European tandem of Sarafina, Midday, St. Nicholas Abbey, Await the Dawn and Sea Moon. With the exception of Sea Moon they’ve all taken turns beating each other so the question is which of the horse will handle the firm turf, tight turns and distance the best. My money is going to the 3 year old Sea Moon. Owned by Juddmonte Farms and trained by the great Michael Stoute Sea Moon ran away with the 1 ½ mile Voltgeur Stakes at York easily in August. He was hampered in his last race, the St. Leger, where he went off as the favorite but all accounts were that the 1 13/16 mile distance of that race was just a little too long for him. His best distance is clearly 1 ½ miles. My other choice will be Await the Dawn. The horse clearly loves firm turf and will handle the distance. On his best effort he appears better than the rest on paper.

Juvenile:
Union Rags is the favorite and looks like a banker to me. The horse has the perfect post and dominated all his races including the Champagne Stakes at Belmont. Hansen has been quite impressive winning his 2 races by over 25 lengths but Turfway Park is a secondary track and it’s unclear just how good the horses are that he beat. Still he can’t be totally discounted given the ease of those wins and the times.

Mile:
It’s unfortunate that Frankel is not entered. American’s deserve the right to see the superstar horse and it would have been a terrific spectacle to see him entered against 3 time Breeder’s Cup Mile champion Goldikova. But with his absence this appears to be a 2 horse race between Goldikova, the winner of the last 3 miles and Gio Ponti. Goldikova just held on last year and there’s no reason not to expect her to win again despite 3 runner up finishes in her last 4 races.

Classic:
Uncle Mo seems to rounding into form at the right time but the 1 ¼ mile distance has always been questionable for him and I doubt he’ll get the distance. Havre de Grace passed up on an almost guaranteed win in the Ladies Classic to run in this race instead. She looks tough and the ladies have been beating the boys regularly this year. She’ll get the distance easily and a repeat of her last race should win this but I don’t believe she’ll be there at the end. My pick is the Australian invader So You Think. His first run on dirt, I believe he’ll handle it well and Aidan O’Brien has assured fans So You Think will have no trouble with the dirt. Ryan Moore is the jockey for the race. I’ll also toss in Flat Out and Stay Thirsty in the exotics.

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