Off Shore Gaming Association

Oh, how I feel the agony of defeat.

Last weekend was a terrible display of bad beats and wagering miscues.

The weekend all started in an innocent and winning way. I have a friend who went to Penn State and I know that secretly he has a cardboard cutout of JoePa in his house. I called him about 1 hour before the Penn State/Temple game and said, “This year the Owls look pretty good. I think they have a chance.” He laughed. I told him that I had $20 if he would like to wager on his beloved Nittany Lions. He asked the spread. I told him 14 and then added, “I know you hate pointspreads, so I’ll take 10.” Of course, Temple ends up covering the 10 and he complains. I gave him 4 points and he still says “Penn State won.” However, I insist that it’s not how many you win or lose, it’s how many you cover! I counted the first victory of the weekend and stopped by his house that night to a) rub it in and b) collect. It wasn’t that I need the 20 bucks or that I thought he wasn’t going to pay, it’s just that money won is much sweeter than money earned.

But, that was it. My NFL wagering was a losing proposition due to a series of bad beats.

For starters, I loved the Saints. The Falcons come to town and at this point the Saints are flying high. I look at the game and see the Saints as a 5-6 point favorite. I liked them so much I bet them at the dreaded price of (-3) -120. First mistake of the weekend, paying -120. I bet 36 to win 30 and, needless to say, can’t believe when the now unemployed Saints kicker, now known at wagerkiller, misses from only 29 yards in OT. I was sooooo close to a cover. As if this wasn’t bad enough, it set the stage for an even more amazing loss.

Yes, I had the Lions. What was I thinking, betting on a team this bad? Mistake #2, betting on bad teams. Still, I looked like a genius in the fourth quarter. With nearly 8 minutes left the Lions drive down to the 4 yard line. YES, victory is mine. No, Dude throws an interception. I reach for another beer. But wait, there’s hope. The Vikings go four-and-out and my now beloved Lions get the ball back with 2:12 left on the clock. Again, they drive down the field. I learn that  the dude at quarterback is Shaun Hill. I love Shaun who. The drive continues all the way to the 10. 2nd and 4 at the 10 yard line less than a minute to go. Can you say Backdoor Cover (a play in which your team scores to cover, they still lose, but you  still cash) with less than a minute left? Again I am crushed. Within a few seconds the backdoor is slammed shut and another interception in the endzone sends me to the fridge, again. Shaun Hill’s name will never be forgotten. OUCH, another $33 lost in the final minutes.

My weekly two-teamer also lost, as I had the Titans (+3) and the under in the Niners/KC game, a game in which a garbage touchdown with less than 2 minutes by the Niners cost me a $52 winner.

For the late games, my brother-in-law stopped by. We tend to watch a lot of games over the course of 17 weeks and he always roots for my plays to cash, and quite often, he brings more cold refreshments.

I have the Skins. I watched McNabb look like a Pro-Bowler for the first two weeks and saw a weak pass defense in the Rams secondary. But, it was evident early on, that I was also on the wrong side of this one. About halfway through the 2nd quarter, my bro turns to me and says, “ You bet on McNabb?” That about sums up my whole weekend. The guy I see as killing it, gets dissed; like I am an idiot for placing my faith in the aged superstar. Another $33 goes poof.

The only bright spot (and winner) was the Eagles. Playing on Vick with both fists, I was able to recoup some of the earlier losses. A $44 bet to win $40 was an easy winner by the third quarter. Now this week, there is the whole Vick/McNabb matchup. Who do you think I’ll bet betting on?

I was so disgusted at having three of my plays lose in the last minutes, that I did not play either the Sunday night or Monday night games. And it’s a good thing, I liked the Pack on MNF.

After a dismal weekend, losing 82 bucks, I am now down $86 for the year. Week 4 of the NFL is right around the corner. Hopefully, those last minute plays go my way this week.

Check back with next week’s Confessions mid-week. Good Luck to all of us this weekend!

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This week I managed to turn the tables on the bookmaker, only to give some of it back on both Sunday and Monday Nights. This week’s SNF game was one that I am afraid will haunt me the whole season. All Peyton Manning had to do was take 3 knees to run out the clock and end the game 38-7 for an UNDER (48 pts.) All he has to do is kneel. Instead, the Colts hand-off for a fumble and Eli drops a 32-yard pass into the arms of Hakeem Nicks at the goal line. TOUCHDOWN!! OVER! ARGHH.

There was a time when I would have thrown something at my TV, which is one of the reasons why I bet small-time now. Funny thing is, I went out to walk my dog ‘cause I thought this one was “in the bag.” Never saw the fumble and did not see the TD that ruined my weekend of wagering. But I did see my account dwindle. That meaningless touchdown cost me $44, yet still left my total for the weekend at a profit of over sixty bucks.

Green Bay was my darling of week 2. Sometimes, I get a little nuts with a team that I REALLY love. Sometimes my darling ‘o the week wins and sometimes I get creamed. This week, I cashed on ‘em. I had the Pack -12.5 for $44, the Pack in a 2-team parlay with the Under in the Steelers game, which cashed for $52.90 and the Pack (now at -13) with the Houston Texans (-3, EV). I loved all of these plays. And I got my money’s worth. But, a HUGE Packer payday was negated by Donovan McNabb and the ‘Skins.

I watched the end of the Redskins game like it was the Super Bowl. The Skins are up for most of the game and looking good doing it. But wait, here come the Texans!! The game ends up in a tie, and of course, I have Texans -3. But a push still means that the Pack cashes for me. Thinking at least it’s not a loss, and far more interested than I was at the half, I hunker down for overtime. Houston gets the coins toss (yes), receives the ball and moves down to the around the 35 (big yes). Long field goal or punt? Houston punts (no). I groan. Then McNabb, who looks like he is ready for the Pro Bowl, drives the ‘Skins down to field goal range. Dude kicks the field goal and it’s good (NOooo), I really groan. But Wait . . .timeout was called by the Texans at the snap. The announcer says “I hate that” and I think “I LOVE that”. Dude comes back and misses the field goal (YESssss). Hope returns! With that, the Texans manage to get close enough for a field goal and at least they push, 30-27. But, going from a $56 winner and a sweep with the Packers, my bankroll got a little deflated when that last parlay cashed as a single bet. An $18.18 winner.

Still, I am up 119 bucks before dinner and lovin it. Then, Sunday Night Football, where it seems like last-second pointspread/OU games always seem to occur, bit me again. Since I was up for the weekend, in addition to the Under play, I parlayed the under with the Giants to win SU at +185. Bet was $10 to win $44 and was deployed as kind of a longshot play. No such luck on either. At least I gave up on the parlay in the 3rd quarter . . .

On to Monday Night, with a profit of $65 and change, I am feeling pretty good. Everybody seemed to like the Saints at -5, and I did too. I speak with my one buddy about every MNF game. It seems when we BOTH like a play, it cashes more often than not. At some point I should probably make a spreadsheet, but it seems like our two heads are better than 1. So, Saints -5 for $33. Another Loser. After a great SunDAY both Sun. Nite and Monday Nite whittle my winnings down to just $32.08.

What a bummer. When I add this week’s winning to last week’s losses, I am down $4. I have shown my book $300+ worth of action in two weeks and built some reward points, but being down after two weeks after coming so close to cashing big in a couple of key games is frustrating. As my one friend said, “You’re still even after two weeks. That’s better than the last two years.” Yeah . . . thanks dude. That makes me feel better. Still, the thrill of victory and almost victory are outweighing the agony of defeat, so far. Therefore, with almost my entire bank roll in-tact, I head to week 3.

Week 3 features an awful lot of home dogs. A good friend and fellow bettor once told me that as a rule, “Never bet against the home dog”. If that is the case, 5 games are off the board. But, Washington giving three and a half to St. Louis at home, sure looks tempting . . .

Check back with next week’s Confessions mid-week. Good Luck to all of us this weekend!

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It is hard to quantify the half-point. Sometime you lose a game by half a point and sometimes you win a game by half a point. But, over the long haul, getting the best line for your wager is a betting strategy that successful gamblers use everyday.

“Shopping the line” as it is commonly called is a top way to maximize profit in football betting, as well as all sports and prop bets. There are two ways to shop for the best line. One is to make sure you check the lines on potential betting games early in the week for football or overnight for baseball and basketball bets.

The early line strategy is commonly used by the ‘sharp’ gamblers. The sharp money will grab a line as early as Sunday night if they think that the line is a bit off, or favors their position. Now most of us are not able to determine which way the line is going to move, but following the move or playing against it is a great strategy. If you are looking at a favorite and the line begins to drop, unless it is headed towards 3 or seven, grab it. Generally speaking, the public likes to bet favorites and overs. And, as game time approaches, more often than not, a line that has moved down on a favorite will rise back up as Saturday or Sunday approaches.

Conversely, an underdog will have the line increase as game time approaches. As players bet favorites, the money will move the line in the direction of the favorite, so that dog players may want to wait until closer to game time to place their bets. Still this is not an exact science. The rule of thumb is that if a line moves off of the 3 or 7 in your favor, grab it. Also, if you liked a favorite at -5.5 and it drops to -5, you must really like it now. Don’t hesitate, play that wager.

The second way to get the best line is to have multiple places to wager (outs) and pit them against each other on wagers to find the most attractive line for your sides and totals. This is a particularly effective tool if you have a two Sportsbooks – one that is large and a smaller one, or a book that has a ton of sharp players and a book that is entirely a recreational betting crowd. You will find that some books move quicker or move on their own money. A book that has a ton of sharp players may move their line before a sportsbook that has all recreational customers. If a line move works in your favor, grab it at the recreational book or vice-versa. It is also good to know your sportsbooks a bit. Elite-rated Bodog typically will move the line a half-point for the favorite before most sportsbooks, so a dog player may benefit there. It is also helpful to know which books are affiliated, as lines at ‘sister’ books will move simultaneously.

A perfect example of this happened already this NFL season. Last week the Arizona Cardinals opened as a 4 point favorite against the St. Louis Rams. The line dropped to 3.5 points and, though hard to believe, ended up closing at many sportsbooks offshore at Cards -3. A player who took the early line ended up with a push as the game ended at 17-13, Cardinals. Had players waited to see if the line moved, they would have cashed that ticket.

The big move in college football last Saturday was Oregon at Tennessee, according to Elite-rated Diamond Sports. The Ducks were a top-rated team and fresh off a 72-0 pounding of New Mexico while the Vols were an ‘extra’ game winner over small school Tennessee-Martin. New Mexico was 1-11 last year so Oregon trouncing them plus the Vols at home saw a line drop of Oregon -14 all the way down to -10 1/2 as sharps and public were on the double-digit home dog, as indicated by Diamond. With Tennessee up 13-3 in the first half, the sharps looked sharp, but they went to half tied 13-13. Then the second half saw Oregon roll up 35 unanswered points for a 48-13 huge win and cover. Here the line moved dramatically down as both shaprs and public saw value with the traditional strong school getting big points at home, yet Oregon cruised.

Another angle that players use to capitalize on line movement is to try to “middle” big shifts in the line. At Diamond, the head linesmaker was a bit upset as they got middled on the total of the Packers/Eagles game. The Pack won and the total went 46 to 48 as people expected Green Bay to score in bunches, and the total falling right in the middle with Green Bay winning 27-20. “We paid out winners on the OV46 and 46 1/2 and also paid winners who bet the other way once the line went to 47 1/2 and 48,” said Diamond.

The bottom line is DO NOT take the line that is given to you without doing at least a little research, showing a little patience or moving quickly. A half-point a couple of times a year could be the difference between a profitable or losing season.

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Every week, I pony up to the window with my $20 parlays and $33 win bets. I don’t have much of a bankroll to wager with, but I more than relish in the action. Part of it is just beating the bookie, being the smart guy and bragging that “I had that winner”.  Oh Yeah, and part of it is, every once in awhile, getting a payout. This football season, I will be chronicling my efforts to beat the bookie and cash some tickets. Last week was particularly rough as winners were hard to come by for me

The first week of the NFL season is usually a tough one for me and a lot of guys. I guess I could do more research, watch more ESPN or at least listen to my friends who fire up sports talk radio everyday. But, I put in my plays with my usual research of hunches, teams that have cashed in the past and the Statfox power ratings and matchups in Week 1, just like every other week of the season. The biggest difference with Week 1 this year is that I watched very few games in the preseason and didn’t have a lot of first-hand knowledge to go on with current players, teams and coaches.

I had a bunch of stuff to do (mostly ordered by the wife, who knows that in the coming weeks I will only be found on the couch), so I missed watching most of the day games. But I did place a couple of wagers. Typically, I will play a couple of straight bets and one 2 or 3 team parlay and maybe a teaser. The teasers did well for me last year, but often I find that my picks do not need the points, win or lose.

Early on I had the Patriots (-5) and put in a parlay with the Colts (-2) and the Under in the Packers/Eagles matchup. I can’t stand the whole Batman and Robin thing going on in Cincy and certainly did not believe the hype that they are going to be a stallion for covering this year.  Chalk one up for me! But, I heard the talking ESPN heads tell me how great the Texans are going to be this year. Most times I ignore those guys. In addition, I should have checked the preseason, I found out a little late that the Colts did not win a pre-season game and looked awful doing so. So, after the early games, I was still up $10, winning $30 on the Pats and losing $20 on my parlay.

Then it went downhill.

I took the ‘Boys, again ignoring the fact the they sucked in the preseason too. I was able to watch this entire game and was glued to the TV as Romo brought the team down to tie or go ahead. A TD and extra point would make for a loser, but I had hope . . . hope that was squashed by a penalty. Another loser. Total for the day – down $12 after wagering $22 on Dallas.

Monday night is what really took a toll on the bankroll.  I loved the Ravens, but like a fool, I did not bet them straight. I put them in two 2-team teasers with the late MNF game. Baltimore (+7) with the Chargers (+2) and plus 7.5 with over 38.5 (6.5 point teaser). The Chargers lost outright killing one play. Still, I figured in the first half of the late game, I had the over, so it was OK the Chargers were getting smoked. At least I would cash one teaser easily with 28 points scored so early. Then the rain came. And my over play went away. Like my bankroll. And, I didn’t need the teaser points with either play. Arghhh.

After the weekend, I ended up down $36.50. A poor showing to say the least, but at least not a killer. I’ve still got some dough and Sunday is just a few days away. I already jumped on the Pack when the line went down to -12.5 for $33 to win $30. And, after doing a bit of my Statfox research,  I just put in Under 40 on the Ravens/Cincinnati game as one of my bigger plays with a $44 investment. Hopefully, these bets won’t disappoint. I may add in a college play or two on Saturday, now that we have seen the teams a couple of times.

Check back with next week’s Confessions mid-week. Good Luck to all of us this weekend

Billy

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Every year the sportsbooks in Las Vegas offer contests both big and small for the football season. This year there are a few college and pro football contests, including one that has a $100,000 entry fee at the M Resort! Since we don’t know too many people with that kind of dough, we will focus on several others being offered in the desert.

For players who want to participate in any of these contests you must appear in-person to enter. After the first week however, many of them accept ‘proxies’. A proxy is a person that the contestant would designate to be eligible to enter the picks each week. Players can use friends or relatives but may also find a company or person that does this throughout the football season. One of them is Tom Thompsen. He has run a reputable proxy service in Las Vegas for the last three years. Interested players can contact Tom at tmt228@sbcglobal.net.

Below are a smattering of the most popular (and affordable) season-long contests with a deadline before the season starts.

The Super Contest at the Las Vegas Hilton is one of the most popular and longest standing contests in Vegas. As in previous years a $1,500 entry fee is required and entries are limited to two per person. Proxies are allowed and must sign up with contestant. The Contest: Entrants pick five NFL games against the spread each week. First prize is 40 percent of all entry fees. Winners are paid through 20th place. The Hilton also gives an aggregate $10,000 bonus for anyone who picks over 67 percent. Sign-up by 4 p.m. Monday, Sept. 6, to be eligible for a free $10,000 winner-take-all contest on the last three weeks of the regular season. Selections are due by 11 a.m. Saturday each week, unless playing a Thursday game, then all five plays due before the scheduled kickoff of Thursday’s game. The deadline to sign up and get first week’s entry in is 11 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 11. Get more on this contest here.

The Pro Football Survivor Contest at Wynn Las Vegas has a $100 entry fee with a maximum of 10 entries per person. Players must sign up for their Red Card. Proxies are allowed and must show up with contestant to fill out form. The Contest: Players pick one NFL game each week with no spread and if you lose once, you are done. The last person standing wins entire prize pool. The pool offers a guaranteed minimum $100,000 prize. Each week the games with highest spreads will be excluded starting with one the first week and proggressing during the season. Selections must be made on Saturdays by 11:59 p.m. or one hour prior to kickoff of games earlier in the week.

Leroy’s Sportsbooks offer multiple contests, as they do every season. All of the contest are available at all Leroy’s outlets.

The Leroy’s College Challenge requires a $250 entry fee. There is a limit of five entries per person. This contest lasts 12 weeks using Saturday games only from Sept. 11 through Nov. 27. The Contest: Contestants pick seven college games against the spread (all games are half-points) from a list of up to 50 games. First prize is 30 percent of all entry fees, which would be $30,000 based on 400 entries, but will adjusted depending on the final number of entries. Multiple contestants can win in this one with prizes paid through 40th place. In addition, 5 percent of the prize pool will go to the winner of a mini-contest over the final four weeks. The deadline to sign up is 4 p.m. Friday, Sept. 10 and selections are due by 5 p.m. each Friday. There is a very similar Pro Challenge based on Sunday’s and Monday’s NFL games only. The prize structure is the same as the College Challenge.

In addition, Leroy’s offers a contest with just a $25 entry fee. The Three N Out contest limits entries to 5 per person. The Contest: Players pick just one NFL spread or total with all lines set at half-points. The last person standing wins entire prize pool and if all remaining contestants are eliminated in the same week, they split prize equally. Picks must be made each week before the scheduled kickoff time of the game used. The deadline to sign up is 4 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 11. Leroy’s will also a free entry into a separate midseason Three N Out starting on Oct. 24 for anyone who plays the first three weeks of the the aforementioned contest and loses all three games. Get the scoop on all three Leroy’s contests here.

Station Casinos, Fiesta Casinos and Wildfire Casinos will offer thier Last Man Standing NFL and College contests for just a $25 entry fee each. There is a maximum of five entries per person and buying four will get one free. The Contest(s): Players pick one NFL game against the spread each week with all spreads will utilizing half-points. Since this is a Last Man contest, if you lose once, you’re out. The last contestant standing wins entire prize pool – for Pro, a guaranteed minimum $75,000 and for college, $25,000. $100,000 bonus is up for grabs if someone wins both the college and pro Last Man Standing contests. Each week selections must be made before the scheduled kickoff time of the game used. The deadline to sign up is 9 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 12.

Player who are looking to enter a contest for FREE and play from the comfort of thier own homes can enter either the OSGA Progressive Pick ‘em or the OSGA Last Man Standing contest. The two contests are distinct, but share in common over $2500 worth of prizes with absolutely NO ENTRY FEE.

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